The GQ Approach – Laurel August 16

by | Aug 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $10,137
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
“Z” race last out - If a horse loses ground from 2nd call to 3rd call but gains ground from 3rd call to the finish, s/he often runs an improved race in her next start.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8/ #3 – Sophia Is an Angel (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 /#5 – Carved (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 3, 5 w/ 1, 4, 10 ($18.00)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 5 w/ 3, 4, 7 w/ 1, 5, 6 ($9.00)
  • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3 w/ 3, 4, 6 w/ 5, 10, 13 ($4.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 90
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 — Whenthedovescry (3-1): Loves trip and well spotted here
  2. #3 — Skippin to Victory (8-1): Makes third start of the year and shows a trio of fast breezes since last effort; only mount of the day here for rider Wolfsont
  3. #5 — Cannon’s Roar (6-1): Nice win in last after working way through traffic in the lane in first on the lawn

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Jarvis Steel (5-1): Karamanos in the irons a plus here; runner’s first two of ’18 were fine, and winner of two-back tilt returned to be third in stake at SAR
  2. #1 – Furyofthenorsemen (3-1): Am I the only one who thinks this sounds like the title of a 1987 action movie starring Arnold Schwarzenegger? Has bested similar and will be running on late
  3. #4 – Puturseatbelton (7-2): Has won four of last five turf sprint attempts and just missed in most recent, all at STALW level

Race 3

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #5 – Carved (6-1) ***: Lands in right spot after a bit of time away; return to early form gets it done here
  2. #3 – Donna’s Delight (3-1): Bit of an adventurous trip in last when finishing second vs. similar
  3. #1 – Cut Time (2-1): Drops to appropriate spot

Race 4

  1. #7 – Smart Two a T (7-5): Third start off a long layoff, and connex protected him in first; drawn well outside here
  2. #3 – El Guerrero Azteca (6-1): Has nine runner-up efforts from 20 starts; inclined to draw a line through last around two turns at CT
  3. #4 – Calculated Thinkin (8-5): Led late before faltering in last; shows good work in interim

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Arraign (4-1): Just missed in last and has been keeping right company; three-back winner returned to win minor stake at MTH, and two-back victor a multiple graded winner
  2. #1 – Imply (5-1): Nice win two back in last on lawn when getting ideal set-up; race produced four next-out winners
  3. #5 – Armoire (9-5): Enjoyed a good trip while surging to Nellie Mae Cox win last out; scratched out of Va-bred Backer Stk. in July when that race came off the turf

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Blowin Smoke (5-1): Much the best in taking career debut despite traffic; place and show horses graduated next out; showing a pair of works since
  2. #5 – Seeking the Sunset (10-1): Added ground a plus here after huge two-back effort vs. open 15k claimers in turf bow; show horse won in follow-up
  3. #2 – Mr. Bridger (5-2): Drops to lowest level off acceptable tries vs. winners

Race 7

  1. #1 – Carteret (5-1): Third start of ’18 follows huge step forward when stretched out in first route try
  2. #9 – Brighton Lane (4-1): Has lost this condition four times, though last three are solid; bid but denied in last vs. 14-time winner
  3. #7 – Moonlight Shadow (12-1): Jenkins trainee has won three of four and figures to be running late; lively early pace would help cause

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #3 – Sophia Is an Angel (7-2) ***: Rallied to lead leaving furlong grounds vs. similar in last but could not hang on; drawn better closer to rail here and Prado remains aboard
  2. #2 – Bellerue (3-1): Showed improved speed when dominating maiden company at DEL in last
  3. #7 – Smart Together (6-1): Even effort in first North American start and first in a year; shortened up and in easier company, can make noise together

Race 9

  1. #4 – Union Blues (7-2): Big effort in last going 7f when winning pace battle but just losing war to favorite; repeat of that makes him tough here
  2. #3 – Devine Entry (8-1): Has never been worse that second in four tries at LRL; trainer Rice owns gaudy record here and puts up main rider Karamanos
  3. #6 – Sir Orinoco (3-1): Owns three straight wins, all pretty easy

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Lemon Avocado (8-1): Return to grass a positive for second-time Gonzalez claim
  2. #5 – Matinee Babe (12-1): Most recent turf try wasn’t awful vs. similar and has some back figs to run back to
  3. #8 — Dorcas Carey (3-1): Drops to level where she’s been competitive before
Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, August 12 at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below). The last two races of the card were taken off the turf late.
  • Top Selections are 280 for 983 (28.48%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners…
    • R1: $9.00
    • R2: $6.80
    • R3: $2.60
    • R4: xxx
    • R5: $9.60
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.60
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: $4.40
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, did not hit any.
  • BEST BET of the Day (99:25-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Pool Winner (4th race: 4-5 M/L; 3-10 PT) vied for the early advantage, took the lead nearing the turn for home, went clear in mid-stretch but faded from there to finish fifth, beaten by less than two lengths.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (96:16-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Fellowship (8th race: 8-1 M/L; 14.10-1 PT) was urged along, circled six wide into the lane and could offer only a mild response, finishing fourth, beaten by six lengths.

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