The GQ Approach – Laurel August 10

by | Aug 10, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $6,519
  • Super High 5$607
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 / #1 – Candys Delight (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 10 /#4 – I’ve Gotta Plan (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 8 w/ 3, 5, 7, 8 ($16.00)
  • Race 8 – 50-cent Pick 3: 3, 5, 9 w/ 3, 5, 7 w/ 4, 6, 9 ($13.50)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high in the upper 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #1 – Candys Delight (3-1) ***: Gelded since last outing when fourth in what was probably the best juvenile maiden race contested in Maryland this year, producing four next-out winners, including Tremont winner Our Braintrust; breeding says grass should fit him like a glove
  2. #8 – Total Bien (6-1): Robb barn has had success with juveniles over the years, and this one’s dam won 11 times; will leg up veteran Pino, and note good record the duo has fashioned
  3. #2 – River Gal (4-1): Filly set to take on the boys; she’s a half-sis to hard-hitter River Deep

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – No Fly Zone (4-1): Gave a good accounting of himself when sprinting in career bow; winner that day, American Guru, now three-for-four in career
  2. #7 – High Rider (5-1): Pricey Candy Ride gelding gave a decent effort last out when finishing fourth versus similar; show horse returned to graduate at same level
  3. #5 – Caneel Bay (7-2): Pretty good try last out when second despite trip troubles

Race 3

  1. #1 – Mike the Tiger (4-1): Second start of ’18 and second for solid Egan barn; rallied smartly for show dough in last and runner-up graduated vs. better next out
  2. #7 – C M Runaway (4-1): Absolutely full of run at the end of last
  3. #6 – Allthewrongreasons (7-2): Blinks on in second try in Reid barn; oddly enough, five of seven starts have been on off tracks

Race 4

  1. #7 – Totally Unexpected (4-1): Third off a three-month break for Cal Lynch trainee; added ground may help overcome lack of early foot
  2. #5 – Bungalow (9-5): Gonzalez trainee a logical contender here, but 9-5 feels a little short on a horse that’s lost three times at this level
  3. #4 – Witchy’s Laststand (12-1): Sophomore has won three times — one more than his rivals

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Indigo Queen (4-1): Trainer Gaudet is 5-for-14 with 2yo first-time starters; first runner out of a mare who won once on the green stuff
  2. #2 – No Mo Lady (5-2): Whoa – an Uncle Mo filly in a local maiden event’s not a common sight; dam won three of six, all on turf; suspect this one will want more ground than is on offer here, but it wouldn’t be a big surprise to see her score here
  3. #8 – Admiral’s Row (5-1): Trainer Schoenthal scratched her out of Thursday MCL tilt to await this spot

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Lion Lord (5-1): First time in Corrales barn and also second time with Lasix for star-crossed Bernardini gelding; something similar to debut effort – only prior grass try – would get the money
  2. #7 – Cabinet Pik (9-5): Has two good tries vs. similar; showing a solid work since last
  3. #3 – Shanghai Storm (3-1): Never worse than third in three tries on the turf

Race 7

  1. #3 – Be a Hero (9-5): Runner loves to win and never worse than second in five at the trip; crushed similar last out at MTH; trainer Navarro, of “Juice Man” video fame, continuing to win at preposterously high rate (35% this year)
  2. #6 – Henry the King (12-1): Shift back to the main track a positive
  3. #1a – Iredell (5-2): Ness trainee another who loves to win (4-for-7 this year), and never worse than third in four at the distance

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Love You Much (5-2): Wandering around a little bit while on wrong lead in last; best finish of four from that race who are here today
  2. #3 – Robey’s Boy (8-1): Blinks off a runner who has done his best work sprinting on the grass; return to firmer surface here a plus
  3. #9 – Runaway Bull (20-1): Infrequent winner was absolutely out of it in last before mounting late rally for fourth; top pilot Toledo remains aboard

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Banjo Bill (7-2): Really good effort in last vs. starter types when setting fast fractions while dogged by rivals, then pulling clear
  2. #3 – My Brothersledge (15-1): Full-bro to 2017 Md. Million Lady’s winner My Sistersledge; breeding says added ground here a plus; three beaten rivals from last ran second in follow-ups
  3. #7 – Speed Game (10-1): Eventful stretch run in last when third at long odds behind hard-hitting Brickyard Kitten

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #4 – I’ve Gotta Plan (8-1) ***: Rallied to the lead leaving furlong grounds before tiring in last; can make amends here
  2. #6 – Bobs Your Uncle (4-1): Trainer Rubley adds blinkers on a runner who had a useful debut vs. better
  3. #9 – Stamped (5-2): Finished ahead of #4 in last; makes third start off five-month break

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday August 4th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 272 for 953 (28.54%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $15.00
    • R2: $9.20
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $5.20
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $28.00
    • R7: $6.20
    • R8: $3.60
    • R9: $2.80
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R1-R2 DOUBLE which returned $81.20 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (96:25-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Just Howard (9th race: 1-1 M/L; 2-5 PT) stalked the pace while saving ground, tipped two wide turning for home, and powered to victory, returning $2.80 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (93:15-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Beltway Bob (6th race: 8-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) settled at the rear of the field, began to move entering the turn, tipped five wide while under a ride nearing the quarter-pole, and rallied to win, returning $28.00 to WIN, $11.80 to PLACE, and $5.20 to SHOW.

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