The GQ Approach – Laurel August 9

by | Aug 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $5,197
  • Super High 5$1,544
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Shippers - Not all shippers win, because many trainers will enter/ship two runners to make the trip worthwhile; be keen to find if a trainer ships in two, to determine which one is “live."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #2 – Just Howard (1-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#11 – Beltway Bob (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 2, 9, 11 w/ 1, 10, 11 ($18.00)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 6, 8 w/ 9, 11 w/ 1, 4, 8 ($9.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 2nd, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Monthly (6-1): Willing effort in last when third at DEL; second time with Lasix and second start off a nine-month break
  2. #9 – Kensington (7-2): Clement trainee made little impact in two tries earlier this year at GP; seventh-place finisher from last graduated next out at TAM
  3. #11 – For Kicks (5-1): Blinks on for fourth try of ’18 for Matz trainee; winner of last defeated N1X rivals in follow-up, while show horse graduated

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Who U Gonna Call (6-1): Testerman trainee ran on willingly while wide on the course after sluggish break in debut; added ground may aid cause
  2. #10 – Ledecka (5-2): Trainer Delacour is 12-for-47 with first-time starters at LRL; six-figure purchase is by high-end sire Tiznow and is first foal out of a winning mare
  3. #11 – Classic Fit (3-1): Trainer Stidham posted recent win with debut runner for same owner: Godolphin LLC

Race 3

  1. #3 – Patriotic Heart (5-2): Speedy sort has shown ability to lead or stalk, well-spotted here
  2. #4 – Saint Mistress (7-2): Rallied nicely to win last out in first try in almost a year; Geralis barn firing of late
  3. #2 – Thirst for Truth (3-1): Didn’t show much in last vs. better but can make amends here 

Race 4

  1. #6 – Top Hat Warrior (4-1): Bad break compromised chances but Warrior’s Reward colt stuck with it to the end; expecting improved effort here
  2. #7 – Joey Gotcha (12-1): Chased to no avail in last but can improve after seven-week freshening; trainer Robb 4-for-18 with juvy maidens coming off similar breaks
  3. #1 – Destructive Flo (9-5): Little bit surprised to see Pecoraro trainee ship down from DEL and run for less than max claiming tag after big try in last; first time Lasix has been positive play for this barn

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Admiration (8-5): Good try for Trimble trainee last out while setting modest pace; reprise of that scenario a possibility here; two from last graduated next out
  2. #8 – Mutawasem (8-1): Gave a decent accounting of himself last out in first in 13 months and first in N. America; steps up to MSW company here
  3. #1 – Real Factor (8-1): Return to preferred surface a plus 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #11 – Beltway Bob (8-1) ***: Even effort in last but two back win was solid, and race produced three next-out winners
  2. #9 – The Tortoise (2-1): Rubley trainee has solid credentials including good try two back when second vs. similar
  3. #5 – Papal Law (9-2): Best efforts make him competitive with these

Race 7

  1. #1 – Candy Wompus (5-2): Trainer Ness is 10-for-45 with debut maiden claimers; one sib to this one graduated at two; work tab, including six-furlong drill 7/15, says he’s ready
  2. #4 – Three Phase (8-5): Have to respect the chalk, but he’s been second three straight vs. similar and has yet to see a runner who won next out
  3. #8 – Charley Eckman (12-1): Blinks on for Ham Smith trainee who showed nothing on debut; Smith barn 9-for-28 in last 30 days

Race 8

  1. #2 – Waterhaven (6-1): Speedster found going a little tough when running vs. N1X foes but can improve here
  2. #8 – Cerulean Springs (6-1): Lightbulb theory in play as Temple City gelding graduated last out in 14th try; will hope for a lively pace to develop to unleash best late kick
  3. #6 – No More Talk (5-2): Has kept better company than these without notable success; credible effort in last

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** BEST BET #2 – Just Howard (1-1) ***: G3 winner gets back to home field, where he’s won three of four; willing effort in last when beaten two lengths by millionaire Divisidero, owns class advantage here
  2. #3 – Surprise Twist (5-1): Little bit of trip trouble posed no obstacle in last, which was seasonal debut; one of three beaten rivals to run back won follow-up
  3. #9 – Atlantic Sun (15-1): Backed out readily in last when up close to solid early pace in 12-furlong Cape Henlopen; can give improved account of himself back at 8.5f; two rivals from two-back show effort won follow-ups

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Baltimore Babe (5-2): Blinks on and return to two-back effort vs. better likely makes her a graduate here
  2. #6 – Pass a Mento (10-1): First time Lasix for Gaudet trainee, who is a half-sib to three turf winners; looking for improved effort
  3. #2 – Just Say Lucky (15-1): Premature move in last before emptying out but stuck with it; can improve

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday August 4th at Laurel had 6 winners from the nine-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 267 for 943 (28.31%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $4.60
    • R2: xxx
    • R3: $3.20
    • R4: $8.60
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $9.60
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: $2.80
    • R9: $5.00
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R8-R9 DOUBLE which returned $8.40 on a $2 wager (total of $16 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (95:24-27-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Caught Dream’n (7th race: 9-5 M/L; 4-5 PT) lacked early speed, came four wide leaving the turn and rallied to earn the place, returning $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (92:14-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Somekindofmagician (5th race: 4-1 M/L; 3.80-1 PT) was outrun throughout, finishing last while beaten by 22 lengths.

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