The GQ Approach – Laurel August 5

by | Aug 5, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,744.43
  • Super High 5$1,021.21
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Caught Dream’n (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#11 – Somekindofmagician (4-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 3, 5, 7 w/ 3, 4 ($12.00)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 8, 11 w/ 1, 4, 7 w/ 3, 10, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 3, 10, 11 w/ 1, 7 w/ 7 w/ 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4, 7 ($24.00)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4, 7 ($16.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd and 5th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #7 – Sweet Home Dixie (5-2): Game runner-up effort in debut, looking professional with a late run following a horrible start in 5 furlong contest when very cold on the board (17-1); may need to improve to graduate      
  2. #3 – Empire Panther (8-1): Most experienced 2 y.o. in the field exits an ill-advised turf try; a pair of dirt efforts prior were much more promising for thinking she could earn her diploma today       
  3. #5 – Hainted (4-1): MD/home-bred for Barak Farm by freshman sire Flashback who has 3 winners from 9 runners so far; trainer/jock combo of W. Potts and C. Cedeno 1 for 2 at meet      

Race 2

  1. #4 – Value Added (2-1): Quick turn around after conquering $10kN2L at Lrl last weekend in first start after trainer P. Schoenthal claim for $16k whose winners repeat at a 33% clip
  2. #3 – Contradance (5-2): Destroyed fellow PA-breds in $8kN2L at Pen for second career win in 26th start; 0 for 3 at Lrl and jock is 0 for 33 this year
  3. #6 – Nairet (3-1): Takes appropriate drop back to this level and should give better account of herself on stretch out to one mile but is 0 for 23 at Lrl

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Slewzer (3-1): Perfect record ended in third/latest start possibly due to inability to break cleanly and get the early lead as in her first two OR was simply overmatched based on the very quick early fractions; today don’t see much speed to challenge her early
  2. #11 – Go Magician Go (9-5): Took a short break after beating winners for the first time in June as blinkers seemed to help; will need an honest pace to catch top pick
  3. #2 – Sudden Hope (8-1): Back at level where she has consistently performed well; winner two back on Lrl turf with some “give”

Race 4

  1. #4 – Coqueta (3-1): Can claim top BRIS# of these 2-year-olds who have raced; showed willingness to pass rivals while most in here will be fighting for the lead
  2. #1 – Swirrlie Shirlie (8-5): Rough assignment on the rail but class drop from $40kMCL should help; failed as Post Time favorite but winner came back to win again here on Thursday 
  3. #7 – Barbsgray Lion (15-1): Second start with blinkers; could be bombs away if bug boy A. Quiles gets this gray to the front early and discourages the rest

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Somekindofmagician (4-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Not much of a price play but he’s got the highest ML odds of all top picks; comes off 6-month layoff and faced better in the pair of outings this winter at GP; cut back is a wise move 
  2. #10 – Rapid Dan (15-1): Just one win in 16 starts on the turf but that one came at Lrl in $50k Allowance company;  being offered for the $25k tag is of no concern as trainer D. Capuano figures if anyone wants a 7 y.o., take him  
  3. #3 – Smile for Eternity (10-1): Third start after layoff; failed as Post Time favorite in latest; can make amends with gate-to-wire score at a price 

Race 6

  1. #7 – Sharon’s Thunder (3-5): Third race after layoff; only question is can she get up in time going this short sprint distance? She has but just once (9:1-3-4)
  2. #1 – Temple Sky (15-1): Adds blinkers that must have been on during latest workout, a bullet; cuts back in distance
  3. #2 – Ms. Picadilly (7-2): Fresh off maiden win in 18th career start when albeit going 4 ½ furlongs at CT at rock bottom level; is quick enough to threaten for the top spot again

Race 7

  1. #7 – Caught Dream’n (9-5): *** BEST BET *** IMHO looks like a Single for horizontal wagers; no worse than second (4:1-3-0), all coming in sprints; finally stretches out a few furlongs which fits his bloodlines with Blame as her sire and dam by Malibu Moon; sheds blinkers
  2. #2 – Hell of Afire (2-1): Reliable runner always picks up a check but has yet to find the Winners’ Circle in ’18 (7:0-2-3); majority of foes she faces today haven’t been as successful at this level
  3. #4 – Curuzu (6-1): Must respect C. McGaughey shippers when F. Boyce is in the irons (29% in the past year); best outing was maiden breaker in the slop at Mth two back when blinkers were added

Race 8

  1. #6 – Magician’scalendar (4-5): Steep class drop to the bottom just two races after romping against $16kN2L; needs the lead to win and only a pair of foe (#2 and #3) are candidates to challenge for that early on
  2. #5 – Flyingtobechilders (12-1): Been facing $7,500 open claimers and starters on turf which should make these conditional $5k claimers more manageable; 2 for 11 on dirt makes him a threat unless at age 9 his form has fallen off to the point of no return
  3. #2 – Arizona Baby (5-1): Victorious in latest for a nickel over non-winners of three which came in the slop here earning a career best BRIS#, 20 pts. Better than previous outing; could bounce

Race 9

  1. #1 – Astrea (5-2): Second start with blinkers and drops a level seeking diploma while switching from turf to dirt; showed early speed going long last time which sets up nicely for cut back here
  2. #7 – Rosy’s Rainbow (9-5): Always beware of the “House Horse” (i.e. Stronach Stables); transferred from north of the border thinking dirt might be more to her liking; adds blinkers
  3. #4 – Towson (5-1): Have lost a small fortune backing this in the majority of his 10 starts; been his own worst enemy at times leaving the gate; shortening up is not idea but don’t see others having a better shot

Yesterday’s News

  • On Saturday August 4th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 265 for 934 (28.37%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $7.80
    • R2: $6.40
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $3.40
    • R5: $4.60
    • R6: $3.60
    • R7: $10.00
    • R8: $6.20
    • R9: $9.80
    • R10: $10.40
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R9-R10 DOUBLE which returned $70.00 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (94:24-26-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Determined Vision (4th race: 4-1 M/L; 1-1 PT) dueled outside the winner throughout and weakened late to be runner-up just one-length behind the winner and returned $3.20 to PLACE and there was No SHOW wagering.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (91:14-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Wildly Clever (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) settled back off of a contested early pace, advanced between rivals mid turn, angled five wide into the lane, closed under pressure, took command a sixteenth out and drew clear to win by a two-lengths and returned $6.20 to WIN, $3.40 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.

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