The GQ Approach – Laurel August 4

by | Aug 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,312
  • Super High 5none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #3 – Determined Vision (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#6 – Wildly Clever (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 6 w/ 4, 6 ($12.00)
  • Race 3 – 50-cent Pick 3: 2, 5, 6, 7 w/ 8 w/ 1, 2, 3, 7 ($8)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 5: 4 w/ 3 w/ 1, 2, 5, 6 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 2, 5, 6, 8 ($24.00)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 4 w/ 2, 6, 8 ($18.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Arkadag (7-2): CD shipper catches a break as it was a head-scratcher why connections entered this turf race when his recent dirt BRIS#s are good enough to earn diploma at Lrl
  2. #6 – Dragonthorn Speed (10-1): Stretch out on turf seemed to wake this one up after a pair of dirt sprints that indicated he’d want more distance
  3. #1 – Vincent Van Gogo (9-5): Makes seventh career start, first on dirt even though bloodlines are filled with successful dirt runners; additional of blinkers since transferred to L. Gaudet barn has helped

Race 2

  1. #4 – Mid Ocean (5-2): Late runner needs an honest pace to break winless streak which stands at 10; extra 1/16th should find him passing leg-weary foes in final furlong
  2. #6 – Junction (5-2): In a perfect storm he could get an uncontested lead in hopes that bug boy W. Hamilton can set a slow pace giving his mount the ability to have enough left in the tank to hold off rivals at the wire
  3. #3 – Mythos (2-1): Veteran of 36 races as only tested this 9 furlongs once, which he won; should find this group much softer than the Starter Alw turf foes he failed to threaten while in claiming jail

Race 3 is the Camptown Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Up Hill Battle (5-1): Liked this one regardless of the surface; got worst part of 3-way photo with #1 and #8 back in stakes race two back, after a nightmarish trip  
  2. #6 – What the Beep (6-1): Failed as favorite in stakes versus the same group 6-weeks ago ending 2-race win streak; willing to forgive that 2-length loss as a blip on the radar
  3. #2 – Northern Eclipse (5-1): Hasn’t raced on the main oval since his maiden days (3:0-2-0) which is more than some others who stayed in; versatile running style is a plus  

Race 4 is the Wm. M. Backer Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Paulita (8-5): MTO entry for trainer A. Delacour will likely find herself on the lead early without much pressure
  2. #4 – Street Miz (30-1): Pathetic when a 3 for 41, $5k claimer has a shot in a $75k stakes event but those are the cards Mother Nature has dealt; top BRIS# dirt number (73) equaled only by top pick  
  3. #5 – Secret Or Not (12-1): Been a while since this one has raced on dirt (4:0-1-1) but it’s not like he’s repulsed by it; willing to take a shot leaving the #2 Queen Caroline OTB

Race 5

  1. #7 – Powell (5-2): KY-bred son of Munnings out of a Macho Uno mare hails from the M. Stidham barn who gets first time starters to the Winners Circle at a 20% clip; morning works are impressive
  2. #3 – Thatwouldbegrand (7-5): Based on debut where he was much the second best after being fractious and tardy leaving the gate and getting the final 1/16th in approximately 11 2/5; if he runs back to that he should win
  3. #1 – The Happy Giant (20-1): Turf debut was promising after a sluggish start closing ground late in decent fractions; breaking from the rail might hurt; CT jock stays aboard

Race 6 is the Hansel Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – River Deep (4-1): Was cross-entered in turf sprint (R7) so trainer P. Schoenthal feels best shot is in here and I agree; has the early speed to earn a gate-to-wire score 
  2. #7 – Officer’s Oath (30-1): Four-time winner has performed better on the dirt (5:2-0-1) than turf (13:2-0-1); should be forwardly placed throughout with a chance to blowup totebaord
  3. #5 – Jump Ship (20-1): Just 2 for 37 lifetime but worth a look to use underneath in exotics; has the plodding type of running style to pick up a minor share late

Race 7 is the Meadow Stable Stakes – OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Determined Vision (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Won turf debut when 11-1 as a GQ LSPOD as he caught an early-speed challenged group; similar scenario exists in this event  
  2. #2 – Homespun Hero (8-1): Couldn’t get to top pick in state-bred stakes two back when he lacked room at the quarter pole; lack of pace in here will make it difficult to turn the tides      
  3. #8 – Fly E Dubai (5-1): BRIS#s have been climbing though on turf but he can do dirt as well (8:1-1-2); connections make the right move by staying in this off the turf event as others decided to bail        

Race 8

  1. #6 – Wildly Clever (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Gets back on a fast track for first time since trainer G. Wilson claimed this 4 y.o. gelding out of his bottom level maiden win at same 7 furlongs distance as today; drop from $16k should help matters as well
  2. #1 – Bad Angle Burke (5-2): Rolling the dice that something went amiss in first start after H. McMahon claim and jock simply took care of the horse (7th by 34); trainer might be trying to steal a win; J. Davis’ lone mount on the card… she’s 2 for 6 on McMahon runners
  3. #2 – Upper Crown (2-1): Connections finally got a reality check that $16k maiden winners usually aren’t successful at the $25k level; reunites with bug T. Lyapustina who was aboard for best two career efforts

Race 9

  1. #3 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (2-1): Exits ill-advised turf try against elders when equipped with blinkers; keeps the hood on while returning to dirt restricted to peers and the level she was victorious three races back
  2. #1 – Shecor (12-1): Third start after layoff; stretches out to two turns for first time in over a year; seeking first such victory in just fourth start going long
  3. #4 – Mila Jane (6-1): To use a grizzled handicapper’s term, she was “stiffed” in latest when sent off even money, never getting into contention yet returns at a higher level; trainer C. Gonzalez wins with 28% of his beaten favorites

Race 10

  1.  #2 – Be Back (3-1): Runner-up at this level in last two since C. Frock took over the training duties; can get elusive second win in 29th career start with a clean trip
  2.  #8 – Army Grey (3-1): Lightbulb Theory could be in play here as this 4 y.o. gelding earned diploma in his 17th start; trainer C. Gonzalez wins at a 31% clip with his next out maiden winners
  3.  #6 – Midnight Cry (5-1): Hasn’t taken to the turf the way new connections who claimed him three races back thought; takes multi-level class drop and returns to dirt which he enjoyed prior to claim, hitting the board in all three races restricted to 3 y.o.

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday August 3rd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 261 for 924 (28.24%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners…
    • R1: $15.00
    • R2: $6.80
    • R3: $16.20
    • R4: $20.00
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $3.40
    • R7: $6.20
    • R8: $6.60
    • R9: xxx
  • BEST BET of the Day (93:24-25-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Confidently (4th race: 4-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) between rivals entering the turn, failed to kick on leaving the three eighths pole, dropped back and finishing sixth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (90:13-19-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Reality Queen (3rd race: 12-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) saved ground on the turn stalking the pace, eased out entering the stretch, gained the lead near the sixteenth pole and was kept to her business to win by a half-length and returned $16.20 to WIN, $8.00 to PLACE and $3.60 to SHOW. 

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