The GQ Approach – Laurel August 2

by | Aug 2, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $428.47
  • Super High 5$1,090.11
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 /#6 – Another Broad (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#5 – Mokheef (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 1, 3, 5 w/ 4, 5 ($12.00)
  • Race 3 – $2 Double: 4, 5, 6 w/ 2, 3, 6 w/ 1, 4, 5 ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50-cent Pick 5: 1, 4, 5 w/ 4 w/ 5, 7 w/ 4, 6 w/ 3, 6, 8 ($18.00)
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 4, 6 w/ 3, 6, 8 ($12.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Cloudy w/ chance of showers, high in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – OFF

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1 – Darter (4-1): Late-blooming VA-bred daughter of Dance With Ravens out of a During mare hails from P. Schoenthal barn who wins with 11% of debut runners; wanted turf but all works came on Lrl dirt; others have already proven their lack of ability at this level
  2. #3 – Holiday Hopes (9-5): 0 for 14 in her career but just 0 for 2 on the main oval, both “even” efforts; look for D. Centeno to dictate a pace that could be measured with a sun dial
  3. #5 – Wolverette (9-2): A third-place finish from three starts on the main track makes her a threat a earn diploma in this off the turf event as the BRIS# earned then (67) ties her for career best with the fav.

Race 2

  1. #5 – Questionoftheday (3-1): Adds blinkers on return to home state after giving synthetic at Pid a go in $100k stakes event (6th by 6) when used early to get position after slow start 
  2. #4 – Knock Out Kid (12-1): $1k purchase at Tim Oct. ’17 Sale was a surprise winner in debut (12-1) did it very professionally with the look of wanting more distance and gets an additional furlong here
  3. #3 – Helen (9-5): Well-backed (3-2) runner just missed in debut then made amends in next start despite traffic trouble over Lrl mud; quick 11 day turn around

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Partisian Divide (4-1): Exits turf sprint in debut where he failed to flash the early speed he displayed in the A.M.; stretch out fits bloodlines; owner/breeder is longtime client of trainer H. Smith and brother of KY-based trainer Dale Romans (a nugget for your cocktail conversations)
  2. #5 – Scaramucci (7-5): Trainer R. Jenkins does well with “Second career start” runners (27%) as is the case with this son of Flatter who gets added distance; this $220k Kee yearling purchase stays in despite off the turf because pedigree suggests he’ll handle it just fine
  3. #6 – Glad Dad (5-2): MTO entry is 0 for 3 burning bettors money as Post Time favorite in each start sprinting, twice on an off track; adds Blinkers and the ultimate equipment change… gelded since last start

Race 4

  1. #6 – Another Broad (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Bred to go two turns and has shown in both career starts sprinting at the $40kMCL level, it takes her a half mile to get out of first gear; connections must like her based on short odds in first two
  2. #3 – Timeless Curls (3-5): On paper deserves to be prohibitive favorite but seems to be still trying to figure out her role in life; her numbers tower over today’s foes but have seen these type before continue to underachieve; maybe first time going two turns will help turn the lightbulb on
  3. #2 – Frankly J’ray (8-1): Second career start following an ugly turf try in debut at Mth when sent off a modest 5-1 with Chad Brown as the listed trainer; this gal didn’t last long under his care as she’s now M. Nevin’s project    

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #5 – Mokheef (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Of those left to run on the Lrl main oval in here, he’s faced better in the past; like how J.D. Acosta, who was scheduled to ride trainer C. Lynch’s scratched runner (#11) bumps A. Cruz of to get a leg up         
  2. #1/1A – Conquest Falcon/City Gold (9-2): “Falcon” just 0 for 1 on main track where he was late on the going 6f, added distance should help; “Gold” draws in from AE but tough to endorse if not coupled   
  3. #4 – Barin (6-1): Disappointing run when 4-1 in latest; positive jock switch gives reason to think this 1 for 21 runner has a legit shot to find Winners’ Circle in this off the turf event          

Race 6

  1. #4 – Belles Orb (7-5): Three-time winner eligible based on wins at age 3; has had a pair of rough starts since trainer H. McMahon dropped the Claim slip at CD in June for $30k; extra 1/16th will help
  2. #6 – Close the Deal (6-1): Determined run to win by a neck after being compromised at the start in first start in W. Komlo barn just 2-months after pulling up after the start at GP; can repeat v. these gals
  3. #7 – Miss Jak (3-1): First start for trainer C. Gonzalez (25%) after 6 career starts at GP, no worse than fourth; field lacks a need the lead type so she seems to be the candidate to get first call with ability to make every pole a winning one

Race 7

  1. #5 – Ridgemont High (4-1):  Fast Times? Not so much but a brief, decent two-year-old campaign provides hope coming off a 9-month vacation; quartet of works indicate she’s ready to fire
  2. #7 – Setubal (6-1): Second of two runners on Lrl card for trainer K. Rubley, both with E. Esquivel listed to ride but this is the only one he’s been aboard prior to today
  3. #1 – Justa Scoch (3-1): That’s about measurement of his last loss on dirt when wide throughout; Turf-to-dirt angle in play here as Acosta takes over for bug boy

Race 8

  1. #6 – Forever Liesl (2-1): Ran evenly in minor stakes at Mth in latest; likes Lrl (4:1-2-1) and would benefit from some late-afternoon precipitation; V. Carrasco opts to reunite with trainer M. Nevin instead of the meets leading trainers longshot (#7)
  2. #4 – Blue Strike (4-1): Must respect trainer J. Servis (32% at Lrl the past year) shippers especially when J. Navarro makes trip in from Prx just for this mount; draw a line through G3 Del Oaks try
  3. #1 – Bluegrass Flag (7-2): Sprinter stretches out to a mile once again three races after tiring in NY-bred stakes at Bel; runner-up effort in latest locally v. similar will likely go for a gate-to-wire score

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Coop Tries Harder (8-1): Looks to repeat in same scenario of off the turf and over a sloppy Lrl surface at same level; second start with blinkers back on       
  2. #3– Seeking the Sunset (8-1): BRIS#s continue to climb with each career start, makes #5 while blinkers come off after runner-up effort at 32-1 sprinting on turf     
  3. #8 – Maru’s Raven (3-1): Game effort when runner-up on turf but switches back to dirt, scene of maiden score three back at bottom level; seems lightbulb came then               

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday July 29th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD below).
  • Top Selections are 256 for 906 (28.26%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners:
    • R1: $3.20
    • R2: $8.80
    • R3: $7.60
    • R4: $6.40
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $3.60
    • R7: $6.00
    • R8: $3.60
    • R9: xxx
  • Of the suggested multirace wagers, hit the R1-R2 DOUBLE which returned $15.20 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (91:24-24-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Zen’s Land (4th race: 9-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) well back early while saving ground, started a run near the far turn, progressed along the rail into the lane, shifted out for room in mid-stretch, bid between rivals with a sixteenth remaining, could not match strides with the winner but managed to save the place under steady handling and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (88:12-18-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Corvid (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) in the six-path turning for home, raced on her left lead in the drive and gained between horses to get worst of a four-way photo, finishing fourth by two noses and a head.

Check out...