The GQ Approach – Laurel July 27

by | Jul 27, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $16,923
  • Super High 5: $1,293
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 /#11 – Enterprise Value (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#8 – Tam O’Shanter (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 3: 6, 8, 13 w/ 1, 8, 9 w/ 6, 11 ($9.00)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double: 1, 8, 9 w/ 5, 6, 11 ($18.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy with a chance of late afternoon thunderstorms, high in the 80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – Fast/ Turf – Off

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is off the turf

  1. #1 – Nuclear Code (5-2): Main track only entrant ran credibly vs. similar on debut after wide journey in only previous try on main track 
  2. #6 – Shanghai Storm (9-5): The question for the handicapper: is this one’s good recent form simply a product of switch to turf, or is he a better horse now than he was in ’17? If he carries form to the main track, he should graduate here
  3. #4 – French’s Quest (6-1): This one caught some good fields in main-track tries, which is not the case here; top three from three-back fourth won their follow-ups, and two prior to that winner repeated vs. better and then nearly three-peated

Race 2

  1. #8 – Smart Two a T (7-2): Nothing wrong with last when running a solid third at DEL in first start in almost two years; can improve here
  2. #3 – A Lotta Wine (8-5): Was a distant runner-up in last; winner ran fourth as chalk in follow-up vs. better, and race produced one next-out winner; first time in Gary Capuano barn
  3. #2 – C M Runaway (2-1): Blinks weren’t the answer, as this one ran worst race of his career with ’em, so they come off here; winner of last took ALW in follow-up

Race 3 

  1. #1 — Dogtown (2-1): Fire sale in progress; trainer Rice 5-for-12 on sharp dropdown in first after claim, will leg up go-to local pilot
  2. #6 – Awesome Bill (5-2): Just missed vs. similar last out after crushing lesser, but just five wins in 54 starts make expected short odds tough to stomach
  3. #2 Danny My Boy (6-1): Crushed by #6 here two back but followed up with a score; trip is to his liking (5-for-14); pilot from last chooses #6

Race 4 is off the turf

  1. #10 – Renaissance Rosie (6-1): Third race after a four-month break for 6yo mare who just keeps churning out good races; bested similar two back
  2. #7 – Belles Orb (15-1): Not a bad try last out when monster odds on the turf; two back winner won vs. ALW foes in follow-up; return to best dirt form makes her a contender, though another half-furlong would be a help
  3. #1 – Elusive Joni (6-1): Cleaner start would aid cause here; winless on main track

Race 5 

  1. #1 — Calculated Thinkin (5-2): Second off a layoff for a barn that’s had a bit of seconditis locally; winner of last won 25k starter next out, while this one drops to bottom
  2. #2 – Army Grey (8-5): Repeated failures vs. similar make favoritism tough to take, but this one figures to be in the mix late
  3. #6– Stevie’s Joy (5-1): Interesting claimback of homebred gelding; first couple starts don’t look out of place here

Race 6

  1. #5 — Gnarly (5-2): Showed speed before being passed two back, rallied into pace in last; today’s the day to put it all together with new rider Carrasco up?
  2. #2 – Simpson (7-5): First time in blinks resulted in big Beyer jump in last, and one of four to run back has won; slightly suspicious of 77 speed fig and will have to slug it out for early lead with #3
  3. #6 – Smart Step (10-1): Couldn’t get past stopping leader Kukulkan in last but can improve here in second of ’18; only two to run back from last won their follow-ups

Race 7 is off the turf

  1. #8 – Rare Eagle (3-1): Deep closer has won with rider Lynch aboard before; first time in productive Gonzalez barn
  2. #13 – Visual Effect (3-1): Dirt from good enough to compete here
  3. #6 – Top Prospect (5-1): Last three are poor but return to late winter/early spring form would get the money here

Race 8 

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #8 – Tam O’Shanter (6-1) ***: Made bold middle move in last — first in over three years! — before emptying out in two-turn event; can fire here in second off the break
  2. #9 – Mr. Brix (7-2): In-and-out form seems to coincide with too little rest, and caught a salty crew in last; can improve in easier company with three weeks between races
  3. #1 – Stolen Love (3-1): Always in the mix at the end vs. similar and owns four wins at the distance

Race 9 is off the turf

  1. *** BEST BET #11 — Enterprise Value (3-1) ***: Good try in last in first after freshening, and switch to the main track makes him likely winner here
  2. #6 – Kitty’s Right (7-2): Has some decent main track tries on her pps
  3. #5 – Dat Dares Gold (6-1): Testerman trainee has won two straight and figures to grab the early lead and take ’em as far as she can

Yesterday’s News

  • On Thursday, July 27 at Laurel had seven winners from nine races (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD).
  • Top Selections are 249 for 877 (28.39%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of the day’s winners:
    • R1: $3.20
    • R2: $6.20
    • R3: $4.40
    • R4: $9.00
    • R5: xxx
    • R6: $5.40
    • R7: $15.80
    • R8: $4.20
    • R9: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race 1 double, which returned $9.40 for a $2 wager (wager cost: $18).
  • BEST BET of the Day (88:23-23-9; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Awesome Jazz (7th race: 8-1 M/L; 4.60-1 PT) showed speed from the rail and was game through the lane, holding third, returning $4.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (86:12-18-11; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Hosway (10th race: 8-1 M/L; 4.90-1 PT) was second most of the way and held on gamely, just missing the place spot while holding the show, though well behind the winner, returning $4.20 to SHOW.

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