The GQ Approach – Laurel July 26

by | Jul 26, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $14,139
  • Super High 5: $5,683
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 /#1 – Awesome Jazz (8-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#7 – Hosway (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 7, 10, 12 w/ 5, 6, 7 ($18.00)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 4: 2, 7, 9 w/ 1, 11 w/ 3, 4 w/ 3, 10, 12 ($18.00)
  • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 11 w/ 2, 3, 4 w/ 3, 10, 12 ($9.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 87
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – Fast/ Turf – Off

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is off the turf

  1. #10 – Whenthedovescry (6-1): Arkansas-bred competed credibly vs. better on dirt two back, never worse than third in six lifetime tries
  2. #7 – Took Over (5-2): Never out of the money at LRL, may appreciate return to the main track
  3. #12 – Technicallyspeakin (7-2): OK, I’ll bite: what’s going on with this WV-bred showing up here off a 21-month layoff? No idea, but trainer Magee has a good record off long layoffs and legs up solid journeyman Cintron

Race 2

  1. #7 – Post Perfection (5-2): First-time starter for young trainer Trimble; Majesticperfection filly has some speedy sibs, including a graded stakes winner — but those all came a while back; solid work tab
  2. #5 – Fashion Week (9-5): 4yo Speightstown filly has had too many tries to take short odds, but trainer McGaughey is 30 percent at LRL in last five years
  3. #6 – Atlantic Avenue (7-2): Huge step forward in first try on main track; not sold on what kind of group that was, but youngster still has plenty of room for improvement and added furlong may help

Race 3 

  1. #4 – Sensational Notion (3-1): Last dirt effort was credible try vs. better
  2. #5 – Glory Hound (5-2): Formful sort likes the trip (4-1-1-1) and might be main speed here, but not inclined to take favoritism on a horse rising both in condition (from N2L to N3L) and class (from 5k to 10k)
  3. #1 A True Gentleman (8-1): Added ground and switch to bug boy Quiles may aid cause; not hard to see this one slugging into top three

Race 4

  1. #6 – Gingeresk (6-1): Trainer Robb and rider Pino have been clicking at 32 percent with a huge flat-bet profit; lightbulb theory in place on last-out maiden winner
  2. #5 – Holiday Magician (8-5): Short odds a little tough to stomach on a runner with just one win from 19 starts who’s missed vs. similar several times, but ’18 lid-lifter was a big one, and one of two to run back scored next out
  3. #1 – Kresses (3-1): Expecting a better break today with gate ace Acosta in the irons; winner of last returned to be second vs. $25k 3yo

Race 5 is off the turf

  1. #2 — Oh My (7-2): Medaglia d’Oro filly broke her maiden on the main track and two back ran ok vs. similar
  2. #8 – Data Damsel (10-1): Ran behind #2 in here two back with a trouble line; show horse from maiden score graduated next out at BEL
  3. #1– Unlucky Hillary (8-1): Arrives with two straight wins vs. lesser

Race 6

  1. #7 — Hosway (8-1): In good form now, figures to show speed
  2. #2 – Sing Praises (2-1): Drops to bottom level for first start in five months; saw some tough customers in last
  3. #9 – Drive At Nite (9-2): Dilodovico trainee makes first start in two months, figures to be running late but just one-for-12 at trip; two of top five from last won their follow-ups

Race 7 is off the turf

  1. #1 – Awesome Jazz (8-1): Really want to see this Awesome Again filly on the green stuff, but dirt debut suggests she’ll be ok on main track, too; flattened out a little bit late in debut after closing a lot of ground following sluggish start
  2. #11 – Head for the Shore (3-1): Unsightly 0-for-15 ledger makes this one a tough sell, but modest off-turf group gives hope; trainer Abramson and rider Toledo 4-for-10 together
  3. #5 – Stormy Sue (7-2): Solid work tab for Dale Capuano firster; $65k filly by Stormy Atlantic has four winless sibs

Race 8 

  1. #4 – Crabcakes (7-5): Season debut for runner who loves LRL (7-5-2-0) and loves this six-furlong trip (7-4-1-1); only out-of-the-money effort at distance came vs. G3 rivals; bested by #3 in here going 7f  in Alma North S. but preference for distance gives her the nod
  2. #3 – Shimmering Aspen (6-5): Jenkins trainee also makes ’18 bow here; owns a couple of wins at short sprints but has done best work at 7f; finished ’17 on an off note, with two defeats as the favorite
  3. #2 – Hailey’s Flip (6-1): Middling effort last out, but season debut two back was fine; winner returned to be second a nose in 75k stake; return to better form gives her best shot at upset

Race 9 is off the turf

  1. #12 — Valadier (7-2): Bit of a freshening after credible debut for Potts trainee; typical second-race improvement makes him a graduate
  2. #10 – Sun Bahram (12-1): Showed little in two turf tries, but drops down another notch here and sports a bullet work 7/17 in the interim
  3. #3 – Forthegreatergood (9-2): Return to main track should be an asset

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, July 22 at Laurel had six winners from 10 races (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD). Five top selections also finished second.
  • Top Selections are 247 for 868 (28.46%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners:
    • R1: $4.40
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $9.00
    • R5: $4.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.60
    • R8: $4.20
    • R9: $4.20
    • R10: xxx
  • Did not hit a multi-race wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (88:23-23-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Deep Red (9th race: 2-1 M/L; 1.10-1 PT) pressed the early pace, secured command nearing the lane, and held sway to win by over two lengths, returning $4.20 to WIN, $2.80 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (86:12-18-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Broad Expanse (10th race: 8-1 M/L; 10.20-1 PT) was three wide on the turn and failed to menace, finishing fifth.

Check out...