The GQ Approach – Laurel July 26

by | Jul 26, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $14,139
  • Super High 5: $5,683
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 /#1 – Awesome Jazz (8-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#7 – Hosway (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double: 7, 10, 12 w/ 5, 6, 7 ($18.00)
  • Race 6 – 50-cent Pick 4: 2, 7, 9 w/ 1, 11 w/ 3, 4 w/ 3, 10, 12 ($18.00)
  • Race 7 – 50-cent Pick 3: 1, 11 w/ 2, 3, 4 w/ 3, 10, 12 ($9.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy, high of 87
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – Fast/ Turf – Off

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is off the turf

  1. #10 – Whenthedovescry (6-1): Arkansas-bred competed credibly vs. better on dirt two back, never worse than third in six lifetime tries
  2. #7 – Took Over (5-2): Never out of the money at LRL, may appreciate return to the main track
  3. #12 – Technicallyspeakin (7-2): OK, I’ll bite: what’s going on with this WV-bred showing up here off a 21-month layoff? No idea, but trainer Magee has a good record off long layoffs and legs up solid journeyman Cintron

Race 2

  1. #7 – Post Perfection (5-2): First-time starter for young trainer Trimble; Majesticperfection filly has some speedy sibs, including a graded stakes winner — but those all came a while back; solid work tab
  2. #5 – Fashion Week (9-5): 4yo Speightstown filly has had too many tries to take short odds, but trainer McGaughey is 30 percent at LRL in last five years
  3. #6 – Atlantic Avenue (7-2): Huge step forward in first try on main track; not sold on what kind of group that was, but youngster still has plenty of room for improvement and added furlong may help

Race 3 

  1. #4 – Sensational Notion (3-1): Last dirt effort was credible try vs. better
  2. #5 – Glory Hound (5-2): Formful sort likes the trip (4-1-1-1) and might be main speed here, but not inclined to take favoritism on a horse rising both in condition (from N2L to N3L) and class (from 5k to 10k)
  3. #1 A True Gentleman (8-1): Added ground and switch to bug boy Quiles may aid cause; not hard to see this one slugging into top three

Race 4

  1. #6 – Gingeresk (6-1): Trainer Robb and rider Pino have been clicking at 32 percent with a huge flat-bet profit; lightbulb theory in place on last-out maiden winner
  2. #5 – Holiday Magician (8-5): Short odds a little tough to stomach on a runner with just one win from 19 starts who’s missed vs. similar several times, but ’18 lid-lifter was a big one, and one of two to run back scored next out
  3. #1 – Kresses (3-1): Expecting a better break today with gate ace Acosta in the irons; winner of last returned to be second vs. $25k 3yo

Race 5 is off the turf

  1. #2 — Oh My (7-2): Medaglia d’Oro filly broke her maiden on the main track and two back ran ok vs. similar
  2. #8 – Data Damsel (10-1): Ran behind #2 in here two back with a trouble line; show horse from maiden score graduated next out at BEL
  3. #1– Unlucky Hillary (8-1): Arrives with two straight wins vs. lesser

Race 6

  1. #7 — Hosway (8-1): In good form now, figures to show speed
  2. #2 – Sing Praises (2-1): Drops to bottom level for first start in five months; saw some tough customers in last
  3. #9 – Drive At Nite (9-2): Dilodovico trainee makes first start in two months, figures to be running late but just one-for-12 at trip; two of top five from last won their follow-ups

Race 7 is off the turf

  1. #1 – Awesome Jazz (8-1): Really want to see this Awesome Again filly on the green stuff, but dirt debut suggests she’ll be ok on main track, too; flattened out a little bit late in debut after closing a lot of ground following sluggish start
  2. #11 – Head for the Shore (3-1): Unsightly 0-for-15 ledger makes this one a tough sell, but modest off-turf group gives hope; trainer Abramson and rider Toledo 4-for-10 together
  3. #5 – Stormy Sue (7-2): Solid work tab for Dale Capuano firster; $65k filly by Stormy Atlantic has four winless sibs

Race 8 

  1. #4 – Crabcakes (7-5): Season debut for runner who loves LRL (7-5-2-0) and loves this six-furlong trip (7-4-1-1); only out-of-the-money effort at distance came vs. G3 rivals; bested by #3 in here going 7f  in Alma North S. but preference for distance gives her the nod
  2. #3 – Shimmering Aspen (6-5): Jenkins trainee also makes ’18 bow here; owns a couple of wins at short sprints but has done best work at 7f; finished ’17 on an off note, with two defeats as the favorite
  3. #2 – Hailey’s Flip (6-1): Middling effort last out, but season debut two back was fine; winner returned to be second a nose in 75k stake; return to better form gives her best shot at upset

Race 9 is off the turf

  1. #12 — Valadier (7-2): Bit of a freshening after credible debut for Potts trainee; typical second-race improvement makes him a graduate
  2. #10 – Sun Bahram (12-1): Showed little in two turf tries, but drops down another notch here and sports a bullet work 7/17 in the interim
  3. #3 – Forthegreatergood (9-2): Return to main track should be an asset

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday, July 22 at Laurel had six winners from 10 races (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD). Five top selections also finished second.
  • Top Selections are 247 for 868 (28.46%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners:
    • R1: $4.40
    • R2: $5.00
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $9.00
    • R5: $4.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: $5.60
    • R8: $4.20
    • R9: $4.20
    • R10: xxx
  • Did not hit a multi-race wager.
  • BEST BET of the Day (88:23-23-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Deep Red (9th race: 2-1 M/L; 1.10-1 PT) pressed the early pace, secured command nearing the lane, and held sway to win by over two lengths, returning $4.20 to WIN, $2.80 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (86:12-18-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Broad Expanse (10th race: 8-1 M/L; 10.20-1 PT) was three wide on the turn and failed to menace, finishing fifth.

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