The GQ Approach – Laurel July 21

by | Jul 21, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $8,795
  • Super High 5: $754
  • Late Pick 5: $5,572
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 /#7 – Bungalow (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 /#8 – Coop Tries Harder (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 1, 2, 10 w/ 2, 5, 8 ($18)
  • Race 2 – 50-cent Pick 4: 2, 5, 8 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 5, 8, 9 w/ 4, 7 ($27.00)

Analysis

  • Weather: Rain, high in the 70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM (as of 11:00 a.m.)

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #10 – Love You Much (4-1): Drops off credible try vs. better; jockey Centeno, who won on him two back, returns
  2. #2 – Fly E Dubai (8-1): Nothing wrong with last; has had issues at the start in last two, and straightening them out could be big plus here
  3. #1 – Censure (9-2): Came from the clouds going a mile to win last out but will need to be more involved early to have a a chance here; runner owns two wins at the trip

Race 2

  1. #2 – Crazed (9-5): Drops after a middling debut; trainer Pecoraro adds Lasix and blinkers for second outing, and runner shows a steady interim work tab
  2. #8 – Shelly Island (4-1): Saw killer group on debut, including next-out Tremont winner Our Braintrust
  3. #5 – Odds R Against Us (3-1): Trainer Robb has long history of success with juveniles

Race 3 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #5 – Munificent (9-2): Two that she bested last out both came back to win follow-ups; drawn outside other speed players, and trainer Eppler to leg up go-to rider Karamanos
  2. #1 – Boos (3-1): Has been showing gradually improving form and wheels back just a week after last try; trainer Goldberg 1-for-3 on such short rest
  3. #6 Rocky Policy (9-5): Runner has kept better company and makes third start of the season – both positives; but hard to accept short odds on a runner that’s 0-for-12 on the turf and 0-for-5 at the track

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY #8 – Coop Tries Harder (8-1) ***: Trainer Cibelli has handled this runner like one with talent; drops in for lowest level yet, while gelded and wearing blinks for the first time in second off freshening
  2. #5 – Inchesky (6-1): Gave a respectable accounting of himself vs. better last out; lightly raced sort owns the right to improve
  3. #9 – Rule Yourself (8-1): Morley trainee well spotted after breaking maiden for $40k, and added ground may help

Race 5

  1. *** BEST BET #7 — Bungalow (5-2) ***: Trainer Gonzalez is 12-for-19 in last two years when moving low-level claimers from turf to dirt; note gaudy jock-trainer stats
  2. #4 – Double Naught Spy (2-1): Took plenty of kickback when stuck down inside on sloppy strip in last but still ran on when clear; sophomore owns three wins in five starts
  3. #2– Fifties Music (8-1): Drops to level where he just missed three back; 5-year-old not too fond of winning, though

Race 6 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #7 — Tapit High (6-1): Half-bro to a multiple graded stakes-placed runner; three to run back from last sport record of 3-2-1-0
  2. #8 – Admiration (5-2): Led a long way before giving it up in last; two from that contest won in follow-ups
  3. #4 – Artie’s Cozy (9-2): Turfy breeding and high-end connections make this one a player in first out of the box

Race 7

  1. #6 – Ghoul’s Night Out (3-1): Trying to beat the even-money chalk with this Ham Smith trainee; switches to able veteran Cintron in the irons, but trainer’s been chilly during current LRL meet (1-for-39)
  2. #3 – Victory Rally (1-1): Just missed two back vs. similar and has been running competitively with open two-other-than horses; note two-length defeat to subsequent G1 winner Salty back in March; blinks go on
  3. #5 – Pearl Gem (6-1): Saw a decent crew when fourth in last try at this level; added ground may aid cause

Race 8 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #6 – Strike (6-1): Set moderate pace and held on in maiden-breaker last out; can move forward in second start of sophomore campaign (and just third overall); winning jock Vargas back in irons
  2. #8 – Chateau de Vizille (8-1): Legendary Hall of Fame trainer King T. Leatherbury guns for win number 6,500 with runner who scored last out
  3. #5 – Compagno (7-2): Should find the competition here quite a bit easier than vs. N1X foes at BEL in last

Race 9 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #1 – Clever Triad (3-1): Merryman trainee set fast pace en route to N1X score; worse than third just once in seven starts, and that after traffic trouble
  2. #5 – Blackjack Baby (9-2): Closing sort did his thing in last in first in five months but couldn’t get close to winner who repeated vs. better; can be sharper in second off the bench, and Prado remains aboard
  3. #3 – My Enigma (8-1): Expected less-than-firm turf moves up veteran whose two best efforts on the page came on good and yielding surfaces

Race 10

  1. #3 — Sandy Lane (6-1): Takes long drop from MSW company here; trainer Corrales added Lasix and blinks last time, and runner showed a bit of late action; training well enough in the interim and like to see Hall of Famer Prado remain up
  2. #1 – Allthewrongreasons (8-5): Drops a half-step off the claim for trainer Mark Reid; was favored in last at CD but gave just an even effort
  3. #5 – Sonic Boom E Jet (2-1): Another taking a big drop, this one from MC 40k level; go-to rider Torres heads to PRX today, so trainer legs up bug boy Quiles

Race 11 is ON THE TURF 

  1. #3 – The Tortoise (2-1): Rallied to lead vs. similar two back before settling for second; Rubley barn hot right now
  2. #10 – Sippin’onbubbles (8-1): Leatherman trainee’s two wins came at 23-1, 52-1 — on good turf; give in the green moves him up
  3. #5 – Maru’s Raven (6-1): Good try in last and only runner from that race to run back scored next out; veteran Cintron in the irons is solid

Yesterday’s News

  • On Friday, July 20 at Laurel had 4 winners from the 10-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD).
  • Top Selections are 241 for 849 (28.38%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%). The payoffs of Sunday’s winners:
    • R1: $3.80
    • R2: $11.60
    • R3: xxx
    • R4: $7.20
    • R5: $6.00
    • R6: xxx
    • R7: xxx
    • R8: xxx
    • R9: xxx
    • R10: xxx
  • Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the race one daily double, which returned $29.20 on a $2 wager (total of $18 wagered).
  • BEST BET of the Day (86:22-22-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Sexyama (3rd race: 5-2 M/L; 7-10 PT) pressed the pace from the three-path, briefly cleared to the lead in upper stretch, was no match for the winner but easily held the place spot, returning $2.60 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (84:11-18-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Contrarity (8th race: 8-1 M/L; 7.10-1 PT) set the pace, shook clear in mid-stretch, could not contain the winner but held the place, returning $9.40 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

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