The GQ Approach – Laurel July 13

by | Jul 13, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,415
  • Super High 5: $887
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#6 – Chattel (7-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 10 /#8 – Eye of the Wildcat (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 4, 8, 9 w/ 3, 5 ($12)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-4 1, 3, 9 w/ 6 w/ 2, 3, 4, 7 w/ 2, 3, 8 ($18)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 2, 3, 4 w/ 3, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly cloudy; highs in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 5th, 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Cabinet Pik (3-1): Game try in last when nipped by strong favorite, who repeated vs. winners in follow-up; blinks go on, and trainer Goldberg solid in second starts
  2. #9 – Creighton (20-1): You’ll thank us if this one comes in; trainer Roadcap 3-for-5 with debut runners in recent years
  3. #4 – Cool Cash (7-2): Tough trip last out when steadied a couple times; runner-up graduated at MC 16k level

Race 2

  1. #5 – Mid Ocean (4-1): Deep closer couldn’t get to the winner last out but was just a length behind favorite here; a stouter pace would aid cause
  2. #3 – Danny My Boy (9-5): Odds a little short on horse who’s been devaluing himself with every race; owns four wins at the trip
  3. #7 – Beauziggity (8-1): Major class relief from the likes of Double Whammy in this spot; just wish he found the wire first more frequently

Race 3 

  1. #3 – That’sthewaytodoit (5-1): Tizway filly is half to two stakes winners; trainer Trombetta has a positive ROI with debut runners and will put go-to pilot up
  2. #4 – Kimberly B. (20-1): That wasn’t a terrible debut when fourth vs. similar and note two bullet works in preparation for this tilt; pilot Russell remains aboard a Tritap filly who’ll get Lasix for the first time
  3. #1/1a Belial/Seekthefairland (6-1): Two Cal Lynch trainees for the price of one… note that pilot Acosta picks the one who ran worse on debut

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Fear (5-2): Posted a big speed fig when thrashing N2X rivals last out and figures to sit a winning trip off the speed
  2. #7 – Showalter (7-2): Five-year-old will make first turf start of career, is a half-brother to a solid turf runner who ran fourth in a grassy stake
  3. #3 – River Deep (9-2): Had three-race turf win streak snapped last out when fourth in a pretty good edition of the Ned Evans Stakes over the strip; will try sprinting for the first time and route efforts might stand him in good stead when facing long stretch

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Proud O’Paddy (6-1): Rallied into the lead before tiring last out in first after two-month break, gets a bit of a class break 
  2. #2 – Floating By (15-1): Sibs haven’t shown much on the turf, but sire Stroll was a G1 winner on the green; this guy will make his first turf try and first in Capuano barn; trainer adds blinks and Lasix
  3. #9 – Hot Girl (7-2): Thrashed N2L rivals at this claiming/starter level last out; Rubley barn been clicking on all cylinders

Race 6

  1. #2 – String Bean (5-1): Even effort in last against similar, but this is a weaker race than that one was; added furlong may play to her advantage
  2. #6 – Fine N Dancy (7-2): Third off a brief layoff for this Eppler trainee, who had a bit of trouble in last
  3. #7 – Disconnect (9-5): Drops to bottom off two inconsequential turf tries; first time on dirt for Alternation filly

Race 7

  1. #9 – Given Achance (6-1): Drops to bottom after middling try last out; hole she was aiming for closed in mid-stretch in last, forcing her widest
  2. #3 – Wee Monie Creek (2-1): The double drop off the claim certainly raises red flags, but trainer Magee is 5-for-14 in similar circumstances; Orientate filly romped at first asking
  3. #1 – Madam Alex (3-1): Trainer Dale Capuano puts the blinks on (36%) and five-pound bug W. Hamilton up for this Not for Love filly; those factors, combined with her natural speed, suggest she’ll be on the engine from the get-go

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Chattel (7-5): *** BEST BET *** Huge effort in first turf try two back, winning three-way speed duel before a perfect-trip rival came and got him late; back on the green stuff should make him a graduate today
  2. #1 – Ready to Run (20-1): Trainer Cooney’s been known to spring a surprise or two; Run Away and Hide gelding’s dam, Kokand Cousin, won three times on the lawn
  3. #4 – Partisan Divide (8-1): Paddy O’Prado colt is bred for the lawn and showing a couple of five-furlong bullets in preparation

Race 9 

  1. #4 – Regal Quality (4-1): Trainer Todd Pletcher ships down an uncoupled duo, this one being the higher-priced runner; last out was a train wreck, though winner King Zachary followed that with a win in the G3 Matt Winn; expecting much-improved effort
  2. #2 – Ark in the Dark (6-1): Form suggests 7f will hit this guy right between the eyes; should be dead fit after two two-turn efforts; no answers in the Pegasus in last, but back in allowance company, this Breen trainee can show to best effect
  3. #3 – Autostrade (5-2): The “other” Pletcher runner won impressively at GP at first asking, but last wasn’t too sightly; he’s another who can benefit from cutback in distance

Race 10 

  1.  *** #8 – Eye of the Wildcat (12-1) LONGSHOT PLAY ***: Tim Keefe trainee got a major education in debut when sixth after breaking slowly, forced to steady for quite a while at top of the lane; every reason to think an improved try is in the cards
  2. #3 – Another Broad (9-2): Decent effort on debut and shows a pair of bullet works since; one of two Trombetta runners in here
  3. #2 – Lunar Rille (7-2): Debut runner for Trombetta; filly by English Channel may be destined for the lawn, but half-sis Moon Vision, now a 10-time winner, won at first asking the dirt; also a half to graded stakes-placed Mayla; decent work tab leading up to this

Yesterday’s News

  • On Sunday July 8th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.80 (1st race), $5.20 (4th), $6.80 (7th), $8.00 (8th) and $5.60 (10th). Top Selections are 233 for 808 (28.84%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (83:21-20-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Discreet Deceit (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) prompted the pace outside SHE’S QUIET, asserted herself and quickly moved clear leaving the quarter pole, drifted towards the rail nearing the stretch, was corrected with the left stick soon after and held firm while kept to task to draw away by two-and-one-half-lengths and returned $8.00 to WIN, $3.60 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (81:11-17-10; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Ten Dollar Hammer (6th race: 10-1 M/L; 7-1 PT) pinched back at the break, raced far back leaving the turn, swung five-wide for the drive and closed steadily to get up for the SHOW spot and returned $4.60 to SHOW.

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