The GQ Approach – Laurel July 8

by | Jul 8, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,406
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Troubled Trip in most recent race - Comments like “Steadied," “Checked," “Taken Up,” “5-6 wide throughout," etc. often point to a live horse that the bettors will overlook.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 /#5 – Discreet Deceit (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#5 – Tern Dollar Hammer  (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 5, 9 w/ 2, 3, 6 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3 1, 5, 6 w/ 1, 4, 6 w/ 1, 7, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 5, 7 w/ 1, 2 w/ 3, 5 w/ 7, 9 w/ 1, 7, 9 ($36)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 5, 7, 9 w/ 1, 7 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Rosetta Red (8-1): Beaten favorite for a nickel on the Del dirt; returns to turf and class level where she dueled early then weakened; if she runs back to that race she could make bettors eat the Chalk
  2. #5 – Mischievous Star (8-1): Can boast career best turf BRIS# (75) of this lightly, turf raced bunch; second time in the irons for 7 lb. bug T. Lyapustina who is getting better at her craft
  3. #7 – Lonely Drifter (3-5): On paper she looks like the winner but the race isn’t run on paper; with just two career starts, she was second versus better in debut on grass so why risk losing her here?

Race 2

  1. #3 – Hashtag Selfie (4-5): Can regress a bit off her last race, a gate-to-wire win against open nickel claimers; she’s been an “All or nothing” proposition on a fast, main track (9:4-0-0)
  2. #2 – No Soup for You (6-1): Preceded by, “There’s no bread?!” as it appears the racing gods won’t let this mares backers cash a win ticket (3:0-1-2 at Lrl) even though she’s been lower than 2-1 twice since trainer D. Capuano claim
  3. #6 – Queena Esther (6-1): Trainer J. Ness immediately put some confidence back into this gal dropping her to Del bottom level claiming as she destroyed her foes two back; has back class to compete in here 

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Panama Papers (8-5): Could have run last weekend off AE List after a few defections in Alwn1x but opted to wait on this easier spot; can’t do much better than having M. Pino in the irons in a turf race
  2. #1 – English Tudor (3-1): Has enjoyed getting back on turf since that’s what he was bred to run on; late rally came up a head short in latest; will need a favorable pace scenario
  3. #6 – Riteamontofmschief (20-1): Got the SHOW purse in last outing on Pen grass when 49-1 in second race after layoff; ran a 90 BRIS# sprinting on turf last Fall so the talent is there

Race 4

  1. #6 – Ready Aim (9-2): Solely on the class drop this runners form has gone south since trainer J. Ness claimed him down south (at OP); encouraging that D. Centeno is willing to take the mount
  2. #1 – Legal Precedent (3-1): Drops back to level where trainer W. Kee claimed him three races back; seems to have lost his edge as far as early speed which he could use today with this field lacking it
  3. #4 – Asphalt Paving (5-2): Hard to believe that trainer C. Gonzalez has just once in the past few years dropped a runner in class off a win per BRISNET stats, if so it was an $11.20 winner; same scenario here

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Mokheef (5-1): Gotta wonder what took so long to get this gelding on turf (today is 9th career start) because the bloodlines scream TURF! Also returns to sprints after showing early speed in routes at Prx in all 4 ’18 starts 
  2. #8 – Jammer (4-1): Lookin’ for the Lightbulb Theory as he broke maiden in latest (11th career) effort; there’s enough early speed in here to help his cause as he does his best running in deep stretch
  3. #1 – Dutch Blitz (4-1): Positive rider switch as jock/trainer combo have won at a 32% clip over the past year; can make amends for being a “hot mess” in final furlong as favorite in latest  

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Ten Dollar Hammer (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Lrl lawn of late has not been kind to early speed and there’s plenty of it signed up here; not that this gelding has shown late foot in either turf start versus better, but passed rivals late and who knows what he could have done two back when in all kind of traffic in the stretch; J. Toledo opting for #3 not a good sign but counting on a hungry V. Carrasco back from injury to give 110%
  2. #7 – To the Hilt (9-2): Third race after a brief layoff and gets class relief while trying turf for fourth time (3:0-0-1) in what will be his 10th career start; has turf pedigree to do better
  3. #1 – Chocomount (7-2): Tough rail assignment for a runner cutting back from turf routes while showing early speed; does have one turf sprint on his resume’ (5th when a maiden sent off as 8-5 favorite) and was forwardly placed

Race 7

  1. #2 – Indy Breeze (3-1): This 13-time winner should get a nice stalking trip in second race after trainer K. Cox claim; needs to improve just a bit to get just second win at this distance
  2. #1 – Gimme Kimmy (7-2): Put it all together in latest when turning the tables on a couple foes from his previous race; the waters get deeper once again on cut back to distance he’s yet to conquer (8:0-3-2)
  3. #8 – Moon Shock (5-1): Prx-based shipper adds blinkers for Lrl debut as BRIS# have been ascending; trainer A. Velazquez has done well here (7:2-1-2) while jockey J. Rosado has ridden 3 winners from 10 mounts for him

Race 8

  1. #5 – Discreet Deceit (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Exits turf sprints at this level where he’s been ITM in all 3 efforts this year; has faced better foes at this level on dirt and this distance is his wheelhouse (4:2-1-0)
  2. #3 – She’s Quiet (5-2): Adds blinkers for fifth career outing while the turf-to-dirt angle resulted in a win for trainer J. Allen 2 of 3 times with other runners
  3. #1 – Faze the Nation (4-1): Loves the Lrl main oval (13:6-2-1) though first start of ’18 came in a turf sprint where he had rough start; should give a better account of himself today on dirt

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Warrior Rose (5-1): Taking the hot hand here with jock J. Vargas, Jr. who is 2 for 2 on this gelding which came on the Lrl turf at this distance which happens to be his only turf tries; let’s make it a Hat Trick; looks like the speed of the speed
  2. #9 – Finbar (15-1): Just one win from five previous turf efforts but earned a 86 BRIS# in that one which puts this 3-year-old in the mixed especially since he comes from the clouds and there’s plenty of early speed to target late
  3. #5 – Smile for Eternity (9-5): Appears change of rider and surface did this MD-bred gelding good as he smoked similar foes in first start of ’18 after a 6-month layoff

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #1 – D’wildcat Sunshine (3-1): A bridesmaid in last two efforts, the latest in turf debut when she couldn’t get to lone speed winner; rail assignment isn’t ideal but veteran rider F. Lynch is at his best negotiating past rivals late
  2.  #7 – Enchanted Evening (6-1): Beware of the beaten favorite as this one was pinched back at the start which is never a good thing in turf sprints; S. Russell recognized his chances were slim so he took care of the horse for another day… like today
  3.  #9 – Shakin’ That Sugar (15-1): Could be a sneaky price play to include in exotics as breeder, owner, and trainer F. Smith, Jr. adds blinkers (1 for 1 w/ $14.20 winner) on class drop; note the bullet work last weekend… ya think this filly had the blinkers on for that work?

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday July 7th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 11-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.00 (3rd race), $7.80 (5th), $5.20 (6th), $11.00 (7th), $5.20 (8th), $9.20 (9th), $3.00 (10th) and $8.60 (11th). Top Selections are 229 for 798 (28.70%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (82:20-20-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Hey Mabel (1st race: 7-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) hugged the inner rail to the far turn, angled out mid-way on the bend, was fanned six deep at the head of the stretch, failed to rally and finished seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (80:11-17-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) He’s a Pussycat (6th race: 10-1 M/L; x-1 PT) cleared early, set the pace towards the inside, was joined approaching the stretch, faltered through the drive, returned off in his left front and was vanned off.

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