The GQ Approach – Laurel July 1

by | Jul 1, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,910.20
  • Super High 5: $970.10
  • Late Pick 5: $2,492.80
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #4 – So Charming (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 /#4 – Accountable (20-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 3, 5 w/ 4, 6 ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3 1, 2, 9 w/ 1, 2, 6 w/ 4, 9, 12 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5 3, 4, 7 w/ 5, 13 w/ 4, 8 w/ 2, 4 w/ 2, 8, 11 ($36)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 2, 4 w/ 2, 8, 11 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Our Anthem (3-1): Went too quick too early and paid the price late in first start after $40k claim by trainer D. Capuano; second start with blinkers and drops to $25kMCL
  2. #5 – Country Linedancer (9-2): Third start after brief layoff, exits two distance turf maiden claimers; lone, fast main track try came against MSW as she ran evenly going one mile
  3. #7 – To Be Honest (3-1): Stretches out an additional furlong following dull try when second choice v. $40kMCL; had been ITM in four previous starts though sprinting

Race 2

  1. #6 – One Proud Wildcat (8-5): Definition of “Insanity” as he’s been beaten favorite in his past four starts though takes multi-level class drop here as trainer K. Magee wins at 37% clip in that scenario
  2. #4 – Chief Tarhe (12-1): Bad break in slop at CT against $5kn1y and never got involved; has never been ITM on an off track and has shown ability in recent past at Lrl to compete v. $10k Claimers
  3. #5 – Here Comes Michael (5-2): Romped against $5kN2L here as he seems to have recovered from ridiculous speed duel going long four races back but may not be up to handling top pick

Race 3is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Stillsexyatsixty (5-2): Second start with blinkers, switches back to turf following two dirt outings which will be third start after 10-month layoff; needs to get a patient ride from 5 lb. bug W. Hamilton
  2. #9 – Running Tide (10-1): Rough start and traffic late in 18th career turf outing was latest excuse as to why she’s still a maiden; should get pace help for late run; J. Vargas, Jr. seeks first win riding for trainer A. Merryman (0 for 7)
  3. #2 – Lost Scroll (7-2): Nearly took similar gate-to-wire on Del turf when 40-1; not sure how good those gals were compared to ones she’ll face in here and won’t get an easy lead; traffic late in previous turf start at Pim indicates latest wasn’t a fluke

Race 4

  1. #2 – Hot Friesia (3-1): Compromised at the start in first outing against winners when sent off as 2-1 second choice, never able to engage foes; confident move by outfit to come right back at the same level
  2. #1 – Bourbonstreetlady (6-1): Fourth career start will be first on any tracks main oval; hasn’t built on debut win sprinting on turf but the fact he was sent two turns in latest, showing early speed for the first time could be the “tell” for today’s dirt sprint debut
  3. #6 – Sarah’s Treasure (2-1): First race since mid-Feb. and only one A.M. work since makes this ML favorite vulnerable especially being 1 for 21 and that 1 came on a “Good” track; use underneath

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Janelle Dreams (6-1): Improved in second turf outing and has overall as a racehorse which is all one can ask of an 0 for 11 runner; though turf isn’t in her pedigree she handles it with H. Karamanos at the controls
  2. #9 – Miss Gray (5-2): Can boast best career turf BRIS# which came in her lone grass outing against restricted MSW foes, though it was in a sprint and bloodlines don’t suggest longer, the winner and runner-up came back to duplicate that feat last weekend in a VA-bred turf stakes
  3. #12 – Daniella (3-1): Much the second best when beaten favorite at this level and distance in last start; that was her third race after a layoff; BRIS#s climbing while S. Russell aboard for the first time

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Accountable (20-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Skipping a condition rarely results in a successful outing hence throwing darts putting this guy on top but reason is this event is loaded with early speed which he does not have; draw a line through those two, tough turf tries at Aqu and he’ll likely arrive on the scene late; he broke maiden against winners at Grm
  2. #3 – Red Clay Road (4-1): HOF E. Prado guided this gelding to a gate-to-wire score in latest to notch second career victory while earning his best turf BRIS# (94) which was 13 pts. Better than previous best; will need similar effort to repeat
  3. #7 – Chateau de Vizille (5-2): Cuts back in distance after a 1 3/8 mile event at Bel, running to his 51-1 odds; returns to home track and level where he’s earned SHOW purse in previous 3 starts

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #13 – Congrats Graduate (8-1): Based on past three turf sprints has the look of wanting more ground even though he weakened halfway through a one-mile $40kMCL when 46-1; fits at this level and reunited with E. Prado; may scratch as she’s on first among the Also Eligibles
  2. #5 – Jumpstartmyheart (4-1): Transferred to trainer C. Gonzalez after just one race after $16k claim; returns to turf and gets jock who has won with trainer at a 26% clip
  3. #1 – Capucine (7-2): Adds blinkers after a very dull effort against better, though at a level she used to be able to compete; drops back to level where she previously earned SHOW purse after leading most of the way
  4. #2 – Snow Queen (20-1): If #13 on AE scratches, giving this one a look… first turf try in 12th career outing has the bloodlines to like the grass and distance (Colonel John is sire); trainer N. Abramson is 1 for 4 with dirt-to-turf runners

Race 8

  1. #8 – Chief of Staff (5-1): Well-traveled 6-year-old makes Lrl debut in 34th career start; has hit the board in all 5 starts this year against open claimers and starter foes; runner-up to next out win at CD in latest; took to Lrl oval with 35 3/5 breeze 4 days ago
  2. #4 – Noteworthy Peach (9-2): Has back class but faces a tough group here; drops to lowest level of career while in for $25k tag; like the fact he’s had a pair of works since third-place effort 30 days ago
  3. #5 – Stolen Love (7-2): Didn’t get to the early lead in latest because it was a sprint not the middle distance he’s accustomed to which is the distance today; beat #2 and #7 two back but others will be tough

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – So Charming (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Graduated in latest at GP when equipped with blinkers; has run without Lasix in all starts while hitting the board in all of them yet has never been Post Time favorite; F. Lynch gets to call for trainer M. Matz
  2. #2 – Rimanisempreforte (8-1): NY shipper looking for an easier spot can boast career best BRIS# which came last summer at Sar; makes second start of ’18 but first one was washed off and willing to draw a line through it based on previous main track form
  3. #5 – Antoaneta (4-1): Makes ninth career start, first one outside south FL; won latest as lukewarm favorite going one-mile on GP grass coming from off the pace; no worse than second at this distance (3:1-2-0)

Race 10

  1. #8 – Jackgreerstubhutch (6-1): Adds blinkers and returns to main track where he was runner-up at this level two races back; has early speed to try to nab diploma in gate-to-wire fashion
  2. #11 – Stay On Point (12-1): Couldn’t carry speed 7 furlongs so the cut back to 5½ should help; speed figs have been ascending of late; strange that regular rider for this outfit would take mount on #7 (12-1)
  3. #2 – Waterhaven (6-5): Yellow flags should be waving as this 4-year-old won debut in MSW but was DQ’d to third… 13-months ago! Resurfaces today for $10kMCL while showing a quartet of evenly spaced works; jock/trainer been winning at a 29% clip

YESTERDAY’S NEWS

  • On Saturday June 30th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 11-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.00 (1st race), $6.20 (2nd), $13.60 (5th), $12.00 (6th) and $13.20 (10th). Top Selections are 220 for 767 (28.68%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (79:20-19-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Dr Bolt (8th race: 9-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) chased three wide, steadied near the five sixteenths, angled out some and failed to rally to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (77:11-17-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Jersey Life (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) two wide on the turn, angled out turning for home, worked between horses in the drive and rallied gamely just missing to return $6.80 PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

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