The GQ Approach – Laurel June 30

by | Jun 30, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,292.39
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #7 – Dr Bolt (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#6 – Jersey Life (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3  w/ 1, 2 ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 5, 6 w/ 1, 4, 7 w/ 6, 7, 10 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-5  9, 11, 12 w/ 7 w/ 2, 4, 6 w/ 3, 4, 8 w/ 2, 4 ($27)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double 3, 4, 8 w/ 2, 4 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Peace Corps (8-5): KY-bred FTS by Violence out of a Capote mare was a $270k yearling purchase at Sar; displays a steady worktab as do all G. Motion trainees prior to career debut
  2. #2 – Bye Bye Bertie (7-2): Hard to believe trainer H. Smith would send this baby girl postward with just two official works under her belt; though that latest was a bullet don’t think for a minute she’s not ready to race
  3. #1 – No Refunds (2-1): Well backed in all three starts but only has a pair of runner-up efforts that came in her first two; regressed in most recent start as distance went from 4½ to 5 furlongs; will need to get 5½ to graduate

Race 2

  1. #2 – Scoreearlyandoften (2-1): Conquered bottom level N2L in latest here after a four versus better following trainer M. McMullen $15k claim at TP
  2. #1 – Silent Prayer (7-2): Returns home to Lrl after trying $12500N3L at Del when unable to get early lead which is only way this mare has won in 2 of 27 career starts
  3. #6 – Tiz Emily and Jill (9-2): Long-time Also-Ran versus much better could only manage a SHOW purse at this level when dropped from $25k; has back class to get 3rd career victory in 27th start

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Cannavaro (5-2): Adds blinkers in sixth career start for trainer G. Motion while getting grass for just second time since debut on Tam turf (7th of 9) in MSW but didn’t run with Lasix; failed as Post Time favorite in last two
  2. #6 – Nitro Fuel (12-1): Has the pedigree to win on turf yet finished an uninspiring fourth, 11-lengtsh behind $40kMCL winner; gets class relief and sixth different jock in as many starts in hopes of getting trainer M. Fernandez first win of ‘18
  3. #5 – Attracting (8-1): Trainer J. Sheppard might be 19% in ’18 but just 1 for 16 at Lrl since last Sept.; finished far back in only two starts but those were sprinting on dirt; sire line is all grass; drops in for $25k tag

Race 4

  1. #4 – Absolved (3-1): Trainer C. Gonzalez win pct. with FTS is low (9%) compared to overall (26%) so that’s why the fact this Blame colt ran so impressively in debut (third one-length behind winner), he’s top pick worthy in second start
  2. #1 – Beyond the Victory (6-1): FL/Home-bred for Live Oak Plantation this 2-year-old son of To Honor and Serve out of an Indian Charlie mare shows a nice string of works at Fai with a bullet in most recent gate drill
  3. #7 – Transform (6-1): Third in debut last month behind two next out winners earned him an appointment shortly thereafter to be gelded; just two works since that May 3rd outing but one was a 3f bullet

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Jersey Life (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Not a bad runner-up effort going 5 furlongs on Prx turf in an open $20k Claimer in first start since Nov.; 1 for 1 on Lrl lawn which came a few years ago but still impressed by the 84 turf BRIS# off the bench; nice turf record 12:5-3-0 
  2. #7 – Missworldvenezuela (7-2): Victorious on this turf course in first start after being transferred to trainer B. Tessore’s barn; she relished being reunited with J. Ruiz so back-to-back not out of the question
  3. #10 – Eye On Berlin (5-2): Didn’t get embarrassed when 10-1 v. OC25k/n2x gals, just ran as she did versus similar in the past; won previous turf sprints here in $7500 and $20k open Claimers 

Race 6

  1. #2 – Towson (5-1): Absolutely one of the worst starts in recent memory in her turf debut when “Reared start”; should be happy to be back on dirt and at $16kMCL to earn diploma in 9th start
  2. #6 – Lily Rae (10-1): Scratched yesterday as a MTO entry makes second start with Lasix and for trainer L. Gaudet, first on natural dirt following two on Pid synthetic and latest on Lrl turf; dropping a level won’t hurt either
  3. #4 – No Honey Money (3-5): Cal export couldn’t solve SA $20kMCL in just two starts; big improvement though from debut (54-length loss) to second start (9+ length when 3rd); counting on trainer C. Gonzalez to make her a winner in the Land of Pleasant Living

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Top Hat City (9-2): Turf specialist seeking third career win only can win when on the early lead which A. Cintron should be able to get against this bunch especially on a Lrl lawn that has been kind to early speed
  2. #11 – Cent Comm (9-2): Latest try at this level was washed off Pim turf but gets back on turf where this More Than Ready gelding got the SHOW purse behind two next out winners, yet his first time ITM from 7 efforts, his first after trainer R. Garrido claim for a nickel
  3. #12 – Magician’s Bags (6-1): Thinking his last outing, going one-mile showing early speed then fading which was first going two turns was a tightener returning to familiar sprint distance  

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Dr Bolt (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Turf should not be part of his resume’ but has taken to it like a fish to water though this will only be fourth turf try (3:1-0-1); jock V. Carrasco back from injury might be back to his pre-injury condition after a couple winners from just 14 mounts
  2. #3 – Adversary (5-2): Yikes… 0 for 11 on the turf but every one of those he faced better than he will today; eligible for this Alw5000s event thanks to plenty on dirt at the nickel level; switch to K. Gomez who has guided him in the past could be a winning move
  3. #8 – Union Blues (3-1): Game effort going 1 1/16th on the front end before weakening late in just his second turf start; faces a slightly lesser talented group and cuts back to sprint; a smart stalking trip could land him in the Winners’ Circle

Race 9

  1. #2 – Winning Road (7-2): NY shipper for M. Dilger gave trainer his only winner at Lrl (6:1-0-0 here since Sept.) which was in March, his only start ‘’18; never failed to be part of the Exacta at this distance (4:1-3-0) 
  2. #6 – Tam O’Shanter (6-1): Trainer A. Delacour is 28% with runners coming off a 90+ day layoff but this gelding last raced on Valentine’s Day 2015; 6-year-old is 2 for 2 in his career showing plenty of works at Fai to think he can go 3 for 3 
  3. #4 – Brighton Lane (2-1): Made the best after a rough start to be runner-up versus similar here earlier this month; reunited with J.D. Acosta who guided this fella to a gate-to-wire win 3 back  

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #3 – Love You Much (5-2): Picked up where he left off last Fall, winning right after a runner-up effort; today will be third race of the year (after 6-month layoff) and can boast top career turf BRIS# of this bunch
  2.  #4 – Clever Triad (6-1): Six career starts, all on turf and just once OTB (6:1-2-2)… but that was in latest in first start versus winners; he had an excuse (“Steady near turn”) so willing to give him  a chance to redeem himself
  3.  #8 – Best Yes (7-2): Third start after layoff and eagerly awaiting for that runner to resurface who earned a 103 turf BRIS# 13-months ago; took brief lead in latest mid-stretch but only managed to be fourth-best

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Dendrobia (9-2): A pair of third-place efforts since starting sophomore campaign, makes second start with Lasix; back in against $40kMCL but MD-bred is protected; the two he finished behind have since come back to win
  2. #4 – Autobahn Express (6-1): “Gray on the grass” is one of many phrases heard at the track and this one gets first try on the turf in third career outing; Prx-based runner attracts jock from that colony for lone mount on the Lrl card who is 1 for 1 with trainer R. Vega’s Lrl starters
  3. #5 – Weekend Delight (8-1): MD/Home-bred for an outfit who prefers to sell them than run them but cannot argue with their success… 1 for 1 turf debut; 4 for 12 with first-time starters; gray daughter of Giacomo out of a Two Punch mare has been quick in the A.M. (59 3/5 going 5f in mud)

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday June 29th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $12.20 (2nd race), $5.00 (5th), $16.00 (6th), $4.80 (8th), $14.20 (9th) and $3.00 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the $2 DOUBLE in R9-R10 for $24.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 219 for 757 (28.93%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (78:20-19-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Appa (7th race: 4-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) three wide both turns, prompted the pace and weakened to finish fifth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (76:11-16-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) My Enigma (9th race: 8-1 M/L; 14-1 PT) off slowly, raced 6-wide on the turn and flattened out in the stretch to finish seventh.

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