The GQ Approach – Laurel June 24

by | Jun 24, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $630.02
  • Super High 5: $6,858.92
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First Time Starter - A decently-bred horse from a good barn showing a consistent (every 6-7 days) work pattern with the last one from the gate can be a good bet.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #6 – Colonel Andy (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 /#13 – Midnight Punk (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 4  w/ 4, 6, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 5, 7 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 2, 6, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  3, 7 w/ 3, 7, 13 w/ 5, 6 w/ 4, 6, 10 w/ 3, 9 ($36)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 4, 10 w/ 3, 9 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST/ Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #4 – Kitchen Soup (8-5): The Toddster ships one of Repole’s NY-based two-time MSW Also-Rans to Lrl, dropping in for $25k tag to either get an easy maiden win and/or hoping to make it a one-way trip
  2. #3 – Shelly Island (6-1): Gelded after a slow start in debut, passed no one yet the speed figure fell just short of the top picks best; both winner and runner-up who were 5+ clear of third-place finisher came back to win in next outing
  3. #2 – Charley Eckman (4-1): KY-bred FTS by top-sire Sidney’s Candy out of a Mizzen Mast mare is a May foal who might need a few but if you don’t agree that his work tab indicates he has ability then, “You can call a cab!” 

Race 2

  1. #7 – She’s Got a Shot (4-1): Ran behind the #6 and #5 in latest but has a shot to turn the tables on them as the early pace should be quicker, which will assist her late running style 
  2. #6 – Tiz Surprised (2-1): Delivered for the Chalk players when dropped to this bottom level in a N3L and comes right back thanks to the race condition of her being a 3-year-old versus elders
  3. #4 – Gimme Kimmy (9-2): Overbet 5-2 second-choice in latest as she proved she lacks the heart or ability to pass all rivals when fourth, while the three who beat her she’ll face again today

Race 3is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Sexyama (6-1): Very wide on the turn in debut at Kee while making a middle move, kept trying to the wire; lands in the J. O’Dwyer barn following private sale; may only need to improve a tad and take to the turf to graduate
  2. #5 – Pink Notion (7-2): Twice beaten favorite now tries turf in fourth career start as trainer J. Salzman, Sr. wins at a 25% clip on the dirt-to-turf move
  3. #2 – Golden Aces (10-1): PA-bred FTS by Goldenscents out of a Stravinsky mare who broke her maiden on the turf, ships in from Mth for trainer A. Margotta, Jr. who’s 28% with firsters; No Lasix

Race 4

  1. #2 – Stomp Dance (5-2): After showing early speed then weakening in only two two-turn starts, cuts back to a sprint in first race after trainer K. Magee $16k claim
  2. #7 – Calculated Thinkin (7-2): Wasn’t mentally and/or physically ready for debut at Aqu last Nov.; given time to mature and shipped to Lrl to train up today’s race; last two works may indicate he now gets it
  3. #3 – Fire Marshal (5-1): Took a ton of early money in debut, then went off 9-2 but didn’t get going until and got going until he hit the stretch; a small step forward puts him in the mix 

Race 5 is the ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Colonel Andy (5-2): *** BEST BET *** yep he’s just 1 for 15 but that 1 came at this distance; beaten favorite when having a less than ideal trip yet still managed to be runner-up; third start after layoff and gets a very favorable pace scenario to catch leg-weary speed late
  2. #2 – Godlovesasinner (9-2): Beedidn’n a different horse since coming off 4-month layoff, enjoying turf sprints; didn’t show early speed in latest though, so a big question mark as ther’s any juice left in this lemon
  3. #8 – Me Darlin Kara (8-1): Graduated in latest when washed off the turf; previously chased the #1 and #2 in their maiden wins on turf; underrated turf rider R. Montanez will try to repeat to get HOF trainer KTL win #6,499

Race 6

  1. #3 – Seeking the Sunset (8-1): Either adding blinkers or hatred of sloppy surface made the difference from debut to second start, as he got away from the gate quickly and never looked back; needs to get an extra 1/16th today
  2. #7 – Here Comes Michael (3-1): Drop in first race after trainer R. Sillaman claim for $10k proved to be warranted based on the dull effort; cut back from 7f should help as will a heavy shower prior to the race; lone win came on a sloppy Lrl surface
  3. #6 – Captain Trips (10-1): Lightbulb Theory could come into play as he finally won in his 22nd career start while racing at the bottom in his last 9 outings; been consistently running BRIS#s in the 60s which is good enough against this bunch

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #13 – Midnight Punk (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Pure pace play here as this field lacks early speed which is unusual for turf sprints; regardless top-notch jock F. Lynch has been aboard for his last two, both off the turf and finally gets second start on it today; runner-up to the #7 in that one when 57-1 at same level
  2. #7 – Puturseatbelton (4-1): Hand started ’18 s been a win-machine when sprinting on the turf and started ’18 campaign with a “W”; jock might have him more forwardly placed today; ML odds seem generous
  3. #3 – Indian Bucks (10-1): Came up a nose short going 5f on Suf turf in third start of the year; gets the much needed extra 1/16th; attractive odds for a runner who was a neck better and a neck short of #4 in their only two meetings last Summer here

Race 8

  1. #5 – Hot Friesia (5-2): Can boast best last BRIS# (85) by quite the margin; finds a soft spot for first start against winners 
  2. #6 – Unlucky Hillary (7-2): Finally got lucky and found Winners’ Circle in latest while getting claimed by trainer C. Gonzalez who works his magic, winning with 33% (40 for 121) first after a claim
  3. #7 – Justa Scoch (4-1): Rough trip in first start versus winners having to check out at the quarter pole; third start after layoff and faces lesser than she did in latest

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #4 – Barney Rebel (7-2): Hard-knocking 10-year-old did well to be fourth just 2-lengths behind winner when skipping a condition in OC32k/n3x event; back at a level where he can win
  2. #10 – Dothat Dance (8-1): Have to think latest sprint on turf was simply to get a needed race into him; gets back to his preferable two-turn distance
  3. #6 – Corvus (10-1): Draw a line his lone start of ’18; not the cleanest of trips and sprinting isn’t his game plus recent bad races came on a “Good” turf; past ones on “Firm” were better  

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #9 – Railmaster (9-2): Faced a number of speedy foes in debut who went 22 flat and 44 4/5 as he was close to that torrid pace; no one in here sniffed those fractions; looking for a gate-to-wire win
  2.  #3 – Caneel Bay (3-1): Five career starts, all sprinting of turf and hitting the board in every one of them; nice late run in first start since last Sept. should help him improve today
  3.  #2 – Call Me Cowboy (5-1): Initial turf try was washed off earlier this month; will he transition his early speed on dirt to turf? 5 lb. bug J. Rosado retains mount

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday June 23rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 11-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.20 (3rd race), $3.60 (4th), $4.20 (5th), $3.60 (8th), $10.00 (9th) and $24.80 (11th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the 50 cent R3-R5 Pick-3 for $4.50 (cost: $13.50, ouch!). Top Selections are 213 for 737 (28.93%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (76:20-18-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Northern Eclipse (7th race: 2-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) bumped leaving the starting gate, disputed the pace outside VIRGIINIA FABLE, drifted out near the eighth pole and gave way to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (74:10-16-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Determined Vision (10th race: 12-1 M/L; 11-1 PT) grabbed command early and set the pace in about the two-path, drifted out briefly before straightening leaving the far turn, edged away a bit nearing the lane, dug in when confronted approaching the sixteenth marker, kept on tenaciously under strong handling and prevailed to return $24.80 to WIN, $11.00 PLACE and $9.80 to SHOW.

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