The GQ Approach – Laurel June 16

by | Jun 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live summer racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,370
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Lightbulb Theory - When a horse finally breaks maiden after repeated failures, the lightbulb in his/her head may have come on and s/he may run very well in her next race, too.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #5 – Madam Alex (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #8 – Proudly (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 6, 7 w/ 1, 3, 4 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 4 w/ 2, 5, 8 w/ 1, 4, 5 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – 50 cent Pick-5  7, 8, 9 w/ 4, 5 w/ 3, 4, 7 w/3, 4, 8 w/ 2, 10 ($27)
  • Race 11 – $2 Double 3, 4, 8 w/ 2, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – R D Magic (2-1): Have to respect the Tam turf form as yesterday’s nightcap was captured by a Tam shipper who paid $27.00; don’t expect that here but just reiterates the quality
  2. #6 – Lilting (15-1): Five-year-old mare has made one start in each of the past three years with last two at steeplechase venues travelling 2+ miles so she shouldn’t get tired; S. Russell takes the mount for trainer J. Sheppard for the firsts time in the past year
  3. #2 – Daniella (3-1): Not your typical class dropper from $40k to $16k since her best efforts have come at this level; last four turf tries have been on less than firm going; gate-to-wire threat

Race 2

  1. #4 – Queen of Schmooze (3-1): Home grown SC-bred filly for trainer “Ham” Smith has been ITM all five starts; progressed from sprints to route races yet cuts back to sprint today; gets pace setup she needs
  2. #3 – Contrarity (6-1): Last seen in Sept. losing her first non-stakes outing here, 6-lengths behind top local stakes winning filly Limited View; three-time was turned out until May and has five nice drills prepping for sophomore debut
  3. #5 – Shecor (12-1): Has enjoyed beating up on less talented peers (4 of 7 on fast track) and while combo of adding blinkers and cutting back to sprints has served her well, she dips into deep waters here

Race 3

  1. #2 – Chief Tarhe (6-1): Appears trainer J. Corrales has discovered what makes this gray tick as the former $5k claimer has showed improvement at this level in last two; positive rider switch could complete the transformation
  2. #3 – Bob’s My Uncle (7-2): Is it “insanity” to think a 2 for 41 gelding can get to the wire first? He fits at this level based on runner-up efforts in last two versus similar; banking on jock switch to get win #3
  3. #4 – Key Mono (3-5): Trainer D. Dilodovico is 31% with “Claiming Repeaters” as this gelding freaked in latest, winning by nearly 10-lengths going 5 1/2f when “First-time Lasix” in 11th career start

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Stillsexyatsixty (2-1): Not a hunch bet based on this Capper matching the age reference but third start after layoff, second time blinkers, return to turf on a steep drop is enough to give her the nod
  2. #5 – Janelle Dreams (8-1): This filly has matured with each race and took to the turf though a distant SHOW finisher any improvement here puts her in position to win in deep stretch
  3. #8 – Eye of the Chub (5-2): Ran best race of her 14-race career in latest, missing by a half-length at this level; foes lack speed which she showed in her past, so “Cowboy” might try to steal it on the front end

Race 5

  1. #5 – Holland Road (5-2): NY shipper makes Lrl debut while getting class relief from the Alw50k Starter events where he was overmatched; hot riding F. Lynch is 1 for 2 w/ trainer’s runners
  2. #4 – Birdies Honor (6-1): With the scratch of #3 – Big City Blues, hopefully jock T. Hole recognizes that he’s on the only runner who can get the early lead when sprinting or at middle distances regardless that he won latest in off the pace fashion
  3. #1 – Don’t Poke the Cat (8-1): Much better on the turf (11:2-3-2) than dirt (10:0-0-2) but a troubled trip on dirt when less than 3-lengths behind winner, gives reason to believe he has a shot

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #9 – Go Magician Go (9-2): See a ton of early speed in the turf sprint for this off the pace runner to catch late; has improved turf BRIS# in each start plus second start with blinkers often provides positive results
  2. #8 – My Chesa Charm (12-1): Though her only two turf outings were against $16kMCL, those were over 8-months ago, she’s a more mature runner today, having hit the board in every outing since while facing better along the way 
  3. #10 – Schianti (6-1): First start after trainer D. Barr $16k claim doesn’t have Buyer’s Remorse as he protects her; runner-up in lone turf effort in $35k sprint at GP

Race 7

  1. #8 – Mila Jane (4-1): Five-time winning three-year-old faces elders who have yet to win three races; first start after trainer C. Gonzalez claim who gets to Winners’ Circle an amazing 33% of the time in this scenario (40 of 120) 
  2. #4 – Livin a Dream (9-5): Mth shipper for 30% trainer hasn’t raced since Dec. but been busy in the A.M.; takes appropriate class drop; last win came at this distance
  3. #2 – Joyful Noise (5-2): Might be pushing the distance envelope going 7 furlongs though runner-up in latest and consistently hitting the board sprinting, she’ll be in the mix with W. Hamilton in the irons 

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Proudly (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Lightly raced five-year-old mare makes ’18 debut; showed liking to the turf in maiden win at bottom level but wasn’t embarrassed first time versus winners at this level; extensive work tab should indicate she’s ready off the bench 
  2. #7 – Hot Girl (3-1): Trainer K. Rubley has a barn filled with turf runners at Fai who get placed where they can be successful; this gal appeared locked and loaded when bottled up late
  3. #9 – Shrew Morning (8-1): Graduated by 12-lengths in latest, just her fourth career outing; knows only one way to go and that’s to get to the lead; there are others who could challenge her but at what cost? If no one does, she could repeat

Race 9

  1. #5 – Madam Alex (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Runner-up against similar in latest makes this mare the one most likely to conquer this N2L condition as IMHO the ML favorite (#2) needs more real estate to pass all rivals
  2. #4 – County Club (6-1): Returns to dirt after two turf efforts where she didn’t display the early foot she had on dirt; if she reverts back to being quick from the gate, it appears the fractions could be soft enough to make every pole a winning one
  3. #1 – Sharon’s Thunder (9-2): Definition of a Cash Cow (13:1-5-4) but in first start after trainer W. Komlo claim, was asked to face elders and more talented foes than ever before and the result (5th) showed; back at a level she can handle and gets jock upgrade to boot

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #3 – Fly (6-1): Third start since one-year layoff while returning home after testing the turf at Kee (runner-up at 14-1) then Bel (no response and tired); trainer P. Schoenthal and jock F. Lynch have gotten 5 of 13 runners to Winners’ Circle this meet 
  2.  #4 – My Sistersledge (7-2): Does best turf work going two-turns yet shows up in this sprint possibly due to just needing to race as the MD weather has washed so many off the turf; will need pace help to get first sprint win (4:0-2-1) but loves Lrl (4:2-1-1)
  3.  #7 – She’s Quiet (10-1): Makes turf debut in fourth career start and bred to like it; has led at first and second call in all three races so expecting the same on the lawn; regular rider A. Lopez in town for only mount on the card

Race 11 is the Alma North Stakes

  1. #3 – Elevenses (5-2): Earned black-type in latest when runner-up at Bel in G3 event; that was in the slop but won her two previous outings on a fast GP dirt oval as prohibitive favorite; trainer J. Jerkens is 1 for 4 with shippers to Lrl
  2. #4 – Split Time (5-1): Another Bel shipper from the L. Rice barn; this NY-bred has been ITM in all five starts but all against fellow NY-breds; that 94 BRIS# earned in her last effort is tops among today’s foes
  3. #8 – Almond Roca (6-1): Took it on the chin in the G3 Miss Preakness; willing to use the sloppy track and/or stiff competition as an excuse; steps back into minor stakes on a fast track which she won in her last two such outings

Race 12

  1.   #5 – Go Metro Girl (2-1): Gets the nod solely on the precipitous class drop after just three starts, though she’s only beaten a total of two rivals, one was on turf and another over a sloppy track; seems that connections are willing to cut bait  
  2. #10 – Menorah Lora (12-1): If the ML favorite/top pick proves she’s just a slow racehorse at any level, then this 0 for 16 Miss could surprise if she relishes the extra furlong and a new pilot
  3.   #6 – Fine N Dancy (8-1): Second start for trainer M. Eppler (18% w/ +2.36 ROI) who’s trying to make a winner out of a CT $5kMCL; got the SHOW purse in first attempt at this level going two turns; cut back to 7f makes sense

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday June 15th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $11.00 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $5.00 (3rd), $9.20 (4th), $7.40 (6th), $4.20 (7th) and $12.60 (8th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the $2 DOUBLE for $47.00 (cost: $8). Top Selections are 198 for 694 (28.53%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (72:18-18-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Deer Valley (9th race: 9-2 M/L; 2-1 PT) saved ground stalking the pace, failed to rally in deep stretch and finished fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (70:9-15-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Winning Thread (10th race: 15-1 M/L; 17-1 PT) bumped and put in tight at the break, lagged three-wide, angled five-wide on the turn, had a mild response late to finish sixth

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