The GQ Approach – Laurel June 15

by | Jun 15, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Laurel Park

First turf race of the 2018 season at Laurel Park. Photo by Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Shippers - Not all shippers win, because many trainers will enter/ship two runners to make the trip worthwhile; be keen to find if a trainer ships in two, to determine which one is “live."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 9 / #4 – Deer Valley (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 10 / #8 – Winning Thread (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 6, 8 w/ 4, 5, 7 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 7 w/1, 2, 6 w/ 2, 4, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  2 w/ 2, 3 w/ 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 w/4 w/ 2, 5, 8 ($15)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 4, 6 w/ 2, 5, 8 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the mid-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Day of Reckoning (3-1): Top pick here because I reckon coming back on just 5 days rest in latest following an exhausting two-turn run in the mud at Pim is why he threw in the towel early; like the cut back to sprint back on turf
  2. #6 – Jammer (9-2): Interesting that J. Pimentel opts for this gelding over Trombetta’s ML favorite (#4) who he’s ridden in all 5 career outings; nice late run on Pim turf going 5f and drops a level
  3. #5 – Quickhatch (10-1): Never been ITM in eight starts but half of those have been washed off the turf, as were his only two of ’18; owes best career turf BRIS# (77) of this bunch of maidens

Race 2

  1. #4 – King’s House (9-2): Been unlucky at the break in last three yet showed willingness to run on late when facing open claimers; last win came v. open $7,500 and gets $5k conditional claimers in here
  2. #7 – Silver Cowboy (6-1): Claimed for a nickel on big drop off bad showing in turf debut as he has competed at the $16k level on the main oval; versatile in that he can close or be on or near the early lead
  3. #5 – Minor Legend (3-1): Opted to wait out “jail” period after $5k claim versus open company when runner-up to a next out winner; should find this group easier to handle but is 0 for 5 at this 5 ½f distance

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Flankenstein (3-1): Rough start in first outing in over a year is reason for so-so effort when backed at the windows (7-2); trainer L. Albert turns to 7 lb. bug E. Lara to hustle this gelding to the front in a gate-to-wire dash for his diploma
  2. #7 – Flying Crusader (5-1): Don’t have a warm and fuzzy feeling but cannot ignore trainer M. Reid 24% and positive ROI with dirt-to-turf runners which is slightly better with turf debuters; add the fact he and Cowboy have teamed up to win at a 33% clip over the past year (9 for 27)
  3. #1 – Hai Sierra (12-1): Has beaten just one rival in two career starts yet K. Gomez stays on him v. #2; takes appropriate drop from $25k; cuts back from route to sprint after gate meltdown and unprepared start

Race 4

  1. #6 – Stay On Point (9-2): Has already crossed the wire first twice and raced against N2L two back  but a pair of DQ’s, the latest took a few weeks to be determined, found him back in the maiden ranks; more bad luck in recent race making a valiant late run after a troubled start and lack of running room along rail
  2. #2 – Wildly Clever (4-1): Seems to do best running at two-turns but you take what the racing office offers; switch from 7 lb. to F. Lynch has to be viewed as an upgrade after runner-up effort at 9-5
  3. #1 – Swamp Chili (10-1): Last two starts have come after 2-month layoffs and this will be after 4-month hiatus which trainer K. Decker does well (21%); encouraging that D. Centeno takes the mount but could just be a good business decision for future mounts

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Zen Papa (7-2): Makes turf debut in sprint which lacks early speed which should find him on the lead early; salvaged runner-up spot in off the turf event in latest v. ALw7500s
  2. #8 – Political Farce (6-1): Just 5 for 50 in career but when the guy in the irons has won 6,865 races, one should take notice, especially in second time on after a strong effort late in ’18 debut v. similar on Del turf
  3. #2 – Came Back (3-1): Love to see a reclaim especially when this 9-year-old gelding was given the winter off and connections protect him via Waiver Claiming Rule; reunited with J. Toledo but will need to be close early for a shot without pace help

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Kuznetsov (8-5): Perfect timing for first start since her namesake helped Washington Caps win 1st Stanley Cup; primed to be a winner now following game runner-up effort in turf debut behind next out winner
  2. #7 – Wolverette (12-1): Much better than latest when 11-lengths behind top pick thanks to rough trip; makes third start of ’18 as she finished ITM in two previous turf sprints in ‘17
  3. #6 – Altamura (3-1): Earned an 80 BRIS# in turf debut at Mth routing just 13 days ago when sent off 153-1! Finished 5th less than 4-lengths behind winner after an adventure filled trip; jock J. Rendon comes in for only mount on card to retain mount 

Race 7

  1. #2 – Slim Fit (7-2): Makes fifth career start at fifth different venue as she graduated when stretched out to two-turns in latest, earning a 92 BRIS# which is tops among today’s foes; trainer T. Proctor repeats with maiden winners at a 28% clip with +1.95 ROI
  2. #3 – Hell of Afire (4-1): Returns to Lrl after a pair of efforts at Prx against Alw25k starters; the latest as beaten favorite when very wide throughout in slop which isn’t her best surface (4:0-0-2)
  3. #6 – Magical (3-1): Overbet 1-2 favorite IMHO in latest when third in first start v. winners; finally gets a bit more distance which she should relish while facing 7 foes, the most ever in fourth career start

Race 8

  1. #2 – Creative Style (3-1): KY-bred FTS by Creative Cause out of a graded stakes placed Indian Charlie mare who broke her maiden by 8-lengths sprinting in her debut; extensive every 10-day worktab perfectly leads to today
  2. #5 – Microscale (5-1): Word is the C. Lynch barn is loaded with talented, unraced runners though most are 2-year-olds, this 3-year-old shows nicely spaced works with bullet from the gate going 3f; with J. Acosta in irons, expect to see him on or near the lead early
  3. #3 – Bass Rock (5-1): Don’t sleep on trainer G. Motion runners regardless of the toteboard as a FTS paid $14.20 last week; this Super Saver colt made debut last Nov. with backing (7-2) but “hung’ in the stretch when fourth by less than 4-lengths; was put on the shelf until late April with steady works since and a bullet going 5f in latest; J. Vargas, Jr. gets the call as he seems to be Motion’s latest “go to” MD rider (3 for 11)

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Deer Valley (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Been on my Watch List since last July, her last start in minor turf stakes here when she had a nightmarish trip and may have sustained an injury per out of training until late April; has star potential if she runs back to three-year-old form
  2. #6 – Keep Your Distance (5-1): Only true “need the lead” type in this contest so as the Lrl turf presumably has firmer-up without rain over the past week, a gate-to-wire score is possible
  3. #7 – Anna’s Bandit (8-1): Black-type earner came from the clouds in slop on Preakness day to get up for SHOW purse in off the turf $100k stakes going 5f; finally gets to debut on turf and a real threat to start another win streak

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #8 – Winning Thread (15-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Why not?! None of the others look like world beaters and she’s been dying to race on the turf (by Lookin at Lucky out of a Dynaformer mare) as 3 of 5 career starts when entered for turf were washed off; drawing a line through latest
  2.  #5 – Hey Mabel (3-1): Only four-year-old in against up to 10 three-year-olds tries to break a string of three consecutive bridesmaid finishes at this level; lone turf resulted in late arriving fourth going 9f in second career start last Oct. here; makes seventh today
  3.  #2 – Sugarcoated Kitten (4-1): J. Vargas, Jr. bails on #5 to take mount for trainer J. Cibelli GP shipper via Mth; drops a level from latest which was 75 days ago, distant runner-up when early position was compromised by traffic; should like added distance as mare was by Kitten’s Joy

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday June 10th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 10-race card (1 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $15.20 (3rd race), $3.20 (6th), $7.60 (8th), $5.20 (9th). Top Selections are 196 for 684 (28.65%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (71:18-18-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Colonel Andy (5th race: 5-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) checked in close quarters entering the turn, swung to the five-path leaving the turn and rallied outside foes to be much the second best and returned $3.80 to PLACE and $3.00 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (69:9-15-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Fleet Gold Digger (6th race: 8-1 M/L; 10-1 PT) saved ground off the pace, was under pressure past the five sixteenths and offered a mild late kick to finish fifth.

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