The GQ Approach – Laurel June 10

by | Jun 10, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $636
  • Super High 5: $2,602
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Lone Mount - Depending on how many mounts a jockey typically gets on a given day, if a jock only has one mount, especially towards the end of the day, that horse warrants a second look.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #5 – Colonel Andy (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #1 – Fleet Gold Digger (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 3, 5 w/ 3, 4 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 8, 9 w/3, 4, 6 w/ 4, 5, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 2, 7 w/ 8 w/ 1, 4 w/2, 7, 8 w/ 5, 13 ($18)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double 2, 8 w/ 5, 13 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy with showers; highs in the mid-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST to GOOD / Turf – FIRM

1st Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Lemon Avocado (2-1): Traffic trouble in debut on Pim turf when sent off 5-2 second choice was distant SHOW finisher; runner-up came back to be the same on Friday in turf sprint     
  2. #4 – Stratosphera (6-1): KY-bred FTS by Get Stormy out of a Brocco mare hails from barn of R. Graham who has sent out a couple making debut in maiden claimers who were “live” (Wee Monie Creek and Doit for Spite)
  3. #5 – Nightmare (3-1): Was her own worst enemy in latest as she misbehaved pre-race then ran into traffic, yet ran on late to complete Superfecta; has taken to running on turf w/ blinkers

Race 2

  1. #4 – One Proud Wildcat (9-5): A vet and MTO scratch in May points to unintended layoff; has failed in last three outings as Post Time favorite, all at this level; offered to less than $16k for 4 lb. makes him a lukewarm choice
  2. #3 – Ready Aim (4-1): … Fire! (ala Loverboy) but I digress, trainer J. Ness seemed hell-bent on making this gelding a turf runner, as he should based on breeding but he wasn’t “Lovin’ every minute of it”; last win came when switching from turf to dirt
  3. #6 – Old Dude (9-2): 3-year-old has enjoyed time racing against peers (11:3-0-3); first time v. elders; 2 for 4 since trainer C. Gonzalez claim, oddly the two loses came as betting choice

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Kierland (8-5): Amateur female rider race if you were wondering while looking at the jockey names… pressure on Ms. Croce as she rides ML favorite who was runner-up in off the turf event; owns career best turf BRIS# (82) but has had the most opportunities (10) 
  2. #1 – Zeke the Streak (6-1): First turf try in 11th career start; willing to draw a line through latest nightmare trip as 9-5 favorite; Taylor Leatherman gets the riding assignment and my guess is she’s been on this one in the A.M. seeing works at Pim, same venue where her Mom trains
  3. #9 – Stay Awesome (10-1): Away since a steeplechase try last Oct. which came 13-months after miserable debut at KD; both were against top maiden company (MSW); a threat on the drop along with adding blinkers, losing testicles and a decent trio of works; Lilli-Marie Engels gets the honor to be the pilot    

Race 4

  1. #3 – Ask the Customer (7-2): KY-bred FTS by Bodemeister out of an E Dubai mare cost a cool $260k as a yearling at Kee; though trainer T. Proctor only wins at 10% clip with firsters, he’s 16% with “babies”; nice work pattern at Tam and Del; A. Castrenze only mount on the card
  2. #6 – No Refunds (3-1): Two races, two runner-up finishes both going 4½ furlongs; distance grows to 5f which should help
  3. #4 – Pink Notion (9-2): Failed as even money betting choice in second start, but was runner-up after she fell in the Post Parade throwing her jock; the fact she was lightning quick from the gate and lost by just a length after that ordeal is quite amazing  

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Colonel Andy (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Must have been ready for that first start of ’18 staying in when off the turf, as 12 of previous 13 were all on turf; the result was a neck loss; gets turf today while stepping up in class but will get a perfect pace scenario as at least five of eight foes are need the lead type
  2. #4 – Godlovesasinner (7-2): 2018 is has been a good one so far (3:1-2-0) for this gelding though has been favored in all 3; been nothing but early speed in those, but showed ability to come off the pace in ’17; if S. Russell cannot take him back and settle, then he’ll make it 6 vying for early lead 
  3. #9 – Townie (9-2): Trainer scratch on Friday from a softer spot ($16kN2L); makes first start after $16k claim at GP for J. Cibelli; been weakening going 5f v. winners, will new barn change tactics? 

Race 6

  1. #1 – Fleet Gold Digger (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ The waters get deeper following restricted allowance win at Pim but this 7-year-old has won 2 of 4 starts at Lrl in the distant past; off the pace running style bodes well in here with plenty of early speed from #4 thru #7 
  2. #2– In Arrears (6-1): Impressive off the pace win in the slop at Pim on Black-Eyed Susan Day in off the turf event going 5f; just 1 for 7 going 6f as that last 1/16th has been an issue
  3. #7 – Rock and Fellers (5-1): On the bench since end of March following 6+ furlong sprints against much tougher and stopped abruptly as the early pace cooked him; trainer J. Navarro only entry on the card

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Midnight Tea Time (9-5): Makes fourth career start at fourth different venue; been unlucky in last two as he’s been bullied and fortunate to be runner-up in latest while earning a lofty 90 BRIS#; deserving favorite in what looks like a very strong event
  2. #6 – Peace of Ekati (6-1): Trainer M. Dickinson nearly made a winner out of this colt when 11-1 in second start which followed a dreadful debut on synthetic at TP; will need to take another step forward to prevail here
  3. #9 – Admiration (12-1): IMHO a Sleeper in here; should improve off that fourth-place finish in second start with blinkers; has maturity edge as he’s the only 4-year-old against 3-year-olds

Race 8

  1. #1 – Viva Forever (3-1): Goes for the natural Hat Trick while making Lrl debut while not having the cleanest of trips when prevailing in last two; no issue stretching out to two turns as he handled it at Tam 
  2. #4 – Chilly Start (8-1): Been mixing it up at Pen since trainer T. Kreiser claim 5 races back; does have history at Lrl (15:3-4-2) but has yet to win goes two turns (3:0-1-0) 
  3. #3 – Frisky Whiskey (7-2): Couldn’t hold off top pick in here late over a good, sealed Prx surface; that as going 7f; gets favorite distance (4:1-2-1) in an effort to turn the tables on that one

Race 9

  1. #8 – Mr. Brix (4-1): Exit an off-the-board effort on turf at Bel; prior to that scored against Alw25ks at Prx after twice being runner-up at same level as the speed figures rose; jock J. Navarro makes the trip down I-95 for lone mount on the card
  2. #2 – Bo Vuk (8-1): Cuts back to sprint after a brief layoff; regardless of distance, he’ll come running at the end and could pass all the leg-weary early speed types as there are plenty of them
  3. #7 – Glindas Good Karma (9-2): Mth shipper for trainer B. Perkins makes Lrl debut in sixth career outing and first of ’18; was fourth versus similar at Prx in last effort of ’17 as all three ahead of him came back to win their next outing 

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #12 – Captain Dixie (9-2): Time for this lightly raced 7-year-old to face a softer group than open $25k claimers at Aqu and steeplechase stakes foes; less than two years removed from three fourth-place efforts in graded turf stakes; still has pep in his step based on recent bullet work
  2.   #5 – Liberty Lane (10-1): Third start after trainer J. O’Dwyer claim at Kee for $10k, finally gets to try turf again as his lone try at FG v. $30k crew resulted in 4-length loss to a next out winner; like that S. Russell takes the mount
  3.   #4 – Cruise More (8-1): Second start after turf specialist too winter off;  showed nothing against restricted allowance with bug rider aboard, gets J. Toledo in irons who has won on this 10-year-old in years past on Lrl turf versus better

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday June 9th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 12-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.40 (1st race), $4.40 (2nd), $6.80 (3rd), $5.80 (4th), $5.60 (6th), $9.40 (7th), $3.20 (8th), $5.20 (9th) and $3.20 (10th). Top Selections are 195 for 675 (28.89%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (70:18-17-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Proud Maid Marian (4th race: 9-2 M/L; 4-1 PT) unseated the rider leaving the starting gate. Enough said.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (68:9-15-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Peperoncino (9th race: 8-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) three wide between horses the first turn, was four wide the far turn and gave way to finish ninth.

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