The GQ Approach – Laurel June 9

by | Jun 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: $2,157
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #5 – Proud Maid Marian (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 9 / #8 – Peperoncino (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 4 w/ 1, 5, 6 ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  5, 8, 10, 11 w/5 w/ 5, 7, 9, 10 ($8)
    • Race 11 – $2 Double 3, 4 w/ 1, 8, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers; highs in the low-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th, 12th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST to GOOD / Turf – FIRM

Special Early Post Time 12:35pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Dancingwithpaynter (4-1): Exits first start in 5 months, failing as lukewarm favorite and not showing early speed she flashed going long on the Lrl turf last Fall when twice a bridesmaid
  2. #2 – Gotham Gala (9-5): KY-bred FTS by Smart Strike out of a Deputy Minister mare will be saddled by A. Delacour who gets 21% of firsters to Winners’ Circle (16% on turf); nice worktab, no Lasix going long
  3. #5 – Atropos (9-2): Lost latest by 100-lengths over the Pim “soft” turf; Showed better than that in previous three outings so willing to forgive her; finished 3-lengths in front of top pick two back

Race 2

  1. #6 – Platinum Pound (8-5): Been knocking on the door at this $40kMCL level as he’s been in-the-money last six efforts, all going at least one mile; there’s enough pacesetters for him to catch late
  2. #1 – Sonic Boom E Jet (7-2): Raced just 6 days ago, his first since last Oct. in an off the turf sprint, losing all chance stumbling at the break; returns to dirt and should like going one mile
  3. #5 – Goodluckjonathan (5-2): Trainer A. Rawlings is 0 for ’18 but has done a good job with this 5-year-old gelding to constantly get minor shares in MSW; turf-to-dirt and blinkers off angles

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Seeing’n’believing (4-1): Hasn’t raced on turf since her runner-up effort last Sept. in same condition over a good Lrl turf course; been facing similar foes on dirt, getting minor awards since trainer R. Sillaman claim 5 races back 
  2. #8 – I Dream of Lois (8-1): Exits a $7,500 open turf sprint where trainer K. Magee claimed her; gets her back to a route which she has excelled in front running fashion; should get easy lead
  3. #5 – Desert Folly (3-1): Returns north after a successful winter at Tam racing against $16k level claimers and starters; eligible for this Alw7500s based on Mth race last July

Race 4

  1. #5 – Proud Maid Marian (9-2): *** BEST BET *** First start of ’18 has faced better; eligible for this Alw5000s due to race last July when she went gate-to-wire at this distance; J. Vargas, Jr. in irons for the first time
  2. #3 – Dorothyfromdublin (4-1): Took a big step up in class from conditional $5k to this Alw5000s in last effort, first off trainer C. Frock claim when IMHO was in against tougher foes than today; cut back from two turns suits her perfectly
  3. #2 – Greely’s Striker (9-5): Makes third consecutive start for third different barn as she’s been popular in the Claiming Box of late; has taken to Lrl main oval (3:2-1-0) since escaping CT; veteran of 44 starts has back class to handle start allowance foes 

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Posse Dreamin (3-1): Ran a winning race two back in turf sprint here only to get knifed a few strides before the wire; third start since trainer J. Ness claim and speed figures are going in the right direction
  2. #10 – Scout’s Honor (7-2): Can boast career best 100 BRIS# among foes in this event; lightly raced (21 starts) 9-year-old keeps ticking while getting class relief in just second local start
  3. #7 – Against the Win (9-2): First start since last Nov.; has well-spaced works over the past 3-months; has won a couple times in the past when coming off the bench

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #14 – Mirth (7-2): Where’s the early speed?! Big field but this 3-year-old who is 2 for 2 on the turf appears she will be able to waltz to the early lead and be nursed along in moderate fractions, having enough left to fend off the closers
  2. #9 – Expect a Kitten (3-1): More comfortable making a middle move than close to the pace, so leave it to skilled turf rider H. Karamanos to make an accurate assessment in the early stages
  3. #11 – Fed Up Fired up (12-1): Deep Closer made a nice rally versus similar going one mile; gets the extra 1/16th mile for chance to get to Winners’ Circle

Race 7

  1. #2 – Moonlight Shadow (6-1): Half-brother to Phlash Phelps, Tempt Me Twice, Saintly Love and Action Andy, all very accomplished class runners; look for this one to build on early success; late running style bodes well in this event that has plenty of early speed 
  2. #5 – Jump Jive an Wail (7-2): If first time rider R. Montanez can time his late rally, he’s a winner as he hit the front too soon in last two, with different jocks, and he got lazy there after
  3. #8 – Ballard High (5-2): Trainer/jock combo of L. Rice and H. Karamanos was lethal last year but not so much in ’18; did get this ones diploma in local debut when sent off 2-5; in tougher today

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Love You Much (7-5): Just missed when taking a huge step up off $16kN2L win last Nov., after a nice rally in restricted Allowance event; turf specialist has a bright future, tough rail assignment  
  2. #6 – Took Over (6-1): First start after trainer L. Gaudet claim out of his win against $16kN2L; makes the right move giving turf a try because it appears he won’t make a living beyond 6f on dirt
  3. #5 – Reedini (20-1): Makes turf debut in 17th career start; bloodlines suggest he could handle it even though no siblings tried the grass; ability to handle an off track often converts to turf form; back in at a level where he can compete

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #7 – Peperoncino (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Giving this MD-bred FTS by Narrative (IRE) out of a Silver Hawk mare a shot at first asking to get the 1 1/16 miles; a lot to ask especially w/o Lasix but he’s bred to love the lawn and trainer T. Woolley has gotten 2 of 6 debut turf runners to the Winners’ Circle +3.93 ROI; evenly spaced worktab shows he’s ready
  2. #6 – Major Attitude (2-1): This one being the ML favorite indicates what a toss-up this event appears to be; makes turf debut on drop to $25kMCL after racing evenly against MSW on dirt in first two, took action in both presumably due to trainer G. Motion; Colonel John is sire
  3. #13 – Max’s Reward (12-1): Having Theatrical on the bottom will certainly help ability to handle the turf as trainer J. Sheppard who specializes in turf runners saw fit to debut this colt last Dec. sprinting on dirt (9th by 18); gets Lasix, turf and two-turns today; like the recent worktab

Race 10

  1.  #7 – Brighton Lane (5-1): Made a second ill-advised start on turf and the results were as bad as first one; back to familiar Lrl dirt oval (9:2-4-1) at distance where he’s been part of Exacta 5 of 6 tries; D. Centeno starting to get regular calls for trainer K. Decker
  2.  #4 – Bonus Points (2-1): Bad timing for NY-based workers for trainer T. Pletcher having to ship to Lrl on Belmont Day; graded stakes placed colt has a win (MD Million Classic) and runner-up finish in two previous trips to Lrl; lone ’18 start was not only disappointing (5th of 6) but took no action (14-1) in OC80k at Aqu 
  3.  #2 – Hill Shadow (9-2): Sprinter makes third start after layoff; was game in both two turn races and is a threat in here to steal it on the front end

Race 11 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Big Handsome (8-5): Looked pretty ugly in the G2 Shakertown on a soft Kee turf; trust that trainer A. Dutrow can get this Street Boss colt back to his winning ways as he’s buried the likes of these in the past
  2. #8 – Take Cover (3-1): Claim to fame is beating Ben’s Cat in ’16 PA Gov. Cup at Pen; that was the last time he crossed the wire first; makes ’18 debut following a trio of bullet works
  3. #7 – English Minister (6-1): Only 4 of 43 lifetime but has completed Trifecta in half of his starts; will need early speed to come back to him late as he’s only tried 5½f twice (2:0-1-0)

Race 12 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Ticker Tape Parade (5-2): Connections take advantage of waiver to protect this gelding as he makes first start since last Nov.; gelded which may cure his issues of weakening late
  2. #1 – Eagle Caviar (6-1): Takes another class drop in third career start, dropping from MSW dirt debut to $40kMCL on turf to $25kMCL here; showed early speed in very quick early fractions in both; shouldn’t have to go that fast against this crew
  3. #9 – Jo Sho (9-2): KY-bred FTS by Hat Trick out of a Speightstown mare should like the lawn; plenty of A.M. drills leading up to career debut; no Lasix; gets H. Karamanos in the irons

Belmont Stakes is Race 11 – Post Time 6:46pm EDT

  1. #7 – Tenfold (12-1): Answered questions whether he belonged at this level when third in the  Preakness, less than a length behind Justify yet galloped out strongly carrying 126 for the first time; has the pedigree to get the 1 ½ miles; first Belmont start for conservative but successful owner/breeder whose had plenty of good ones; stalking running style fits The Big Sandy as not many deep closers have won this event; trainer S. Asmussen won with Creator in ’16; runner-up Curlin in ’06; jocks first Belmont Stakes… a major concern (re: moving too soon)
  2. #4 – Hofburg (9-2): Wise guy horse in KY Derby had a nightmare trip so once again he’s the talk of the town to be Triple Crown spoiler; trainer B. Mott knows winning feeling as he saddled Drosselmeyer in ’10 Belmont; this is jock I. Ortiz, Jr. “house” who won on Creator in ’16; might be forced to lay closer to soft pace than accustomed which could compromise much needed energy late 
  3. #1 – Justify (4-5): Say it ain’t so! Been down this road too many times in the past, American Pharoah the exception, the racing gods don’t hand out Triple Crowns like candy; not that this colt isn’t deserving of the honor but the Preakness was hard on him, can he continue to be at the top of his game in his sixth race in a span of 16 weeks? Pace scenario appears more Derby-like as only Noble Indy will keep him company early, making him earn it… and if he does, then he’s truly super

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday June 8th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.40 (1st race), $6.40 (4th), $9.20 (6th), $9.00 (7th) and $14.20 (8th). Top Selections are 190 for 663 (28.66%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (69:18-17-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Cyclobomb (10th race: 4-1 M/L; 2-1 PT) raced four-wide, chased early pace and weakened in the stretch to finish eighth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (67:9-15-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Flyingontheground (1st race: 12-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) fractious behind the starting gate, saved ground disputing the pace, drew clear late under urging to win by two-and-three-quarter-lengths and returned $9.40 to WIN, 4.60 to PLACE and $3.40 to SHOW.

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