The GQ Approach – Laurel June 8

by | Jun 8, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 1 comment

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $3,842
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 10 / #8 – Cyclobomb (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 1 / #6 – Flyingontheground (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 6, 10 w/ 3, 4 ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 4, 5 w/1, 4, 5 w/ 2, 11, 13 ($13.50)
    • Race 9 – $2 Double 1, 2, 12 w/ 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the low-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1.   #6 – Flyingontheground (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ In second debut (first was 11-months in off the turf MSW at Pen) had a total meltdown pre-race, then races 5-wide showing late interest to salvage sixth when first time Lasix; turf bloodlines, any improvement and she’s there on the class drop
  2. #10 – Reiltin Oir (15-1): Second start with blinkers after being beaten favorite when shuffled back early in off the turf sprint v. $16kMCL; S. Russell retains mount
  3. #2 – Calling Mr. Spock (9-2): Bred to run of turf, gets first shot on it in third career start; faced a few monsters on dirt so far in MSW without being embarrassed; drops in for $25k tag

Race 2

  1. #4 – Love N Kimestry (7-2): Third start after brief layoff while having trouble at the start in both previous outings can make career start #9 the one in which he earns diploma
  2. #3 – Stay On Point (9-2): Has already crossed the wire first twice and raced against N2L in latest, but a pair of DQ’s, the latest took a few weeks to be determined, find him back in the maiden ranks
  3. #7 – Fear the Reaper (7-2): Has consistently earned similar BRIS#s which his latest would be good enough to beat these foes; traffic issues at the half stymied progress in latest

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Bad Angle Burke (3-1): Broke maiden v. $16kMCL two back in an off the turf event then followed that with runner-up effort against peers for $15k; first turf try in eighth career start
  2. #4 – Dutch Blitz (9-2): Trainer H. McMahon hasn’t hit pay dirt since claiming this gelding two back out of maiden win, though stepped him up in both; turns to previous jock R. Chiappe in hopes of changing fortunes 
  3. #1 – Dangerous Dan (8-1): Away since last Dec. when breaking maiden here at bottom level over a good, sealed oval; gives turf a second shot as he was very quick from gate in lone grass effort but weakened going 5f at GP in MSW with W. Ward the conditioner; that was 2 years ago; shows a nice worktab     

Race 4

  1. #4 – Baltimore Street (9-5): A lifelong sprinter heads for unchartered territory stretching out to one mile and taking on open claimers on dirt; evenly in latest against Alw500s; beaten favorite in previous 3 races
  2. #1 – Truly Hot (2-1): Second time blinkers and after $7,500 claim by trainer R. Sillaman; bit off a bit more than she could chew so now gets major class relief dropping to bottom level $5k
  3. #5 – Hashtag Selfie (7-2): For unknown she’s ran on the turf in latest, to run turf record to 3:0-0-1; 4 for 11 on Lrl main oval but best results have come going 7 furlongs against conditional $5k foes

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Jumpin’ Nancy (10-1): Can boast career best turf BRIS#… barely, which came in latest, herr first start of ’18 and just second on turf; imagine what she’ll do in this outing; she won in second start after layoff last year
  2. #13 – Hip Hop (6-1): 3-year-old took a forwardly placed position in turf sprint against elders last month and prevailed with room to spare; appears to have a future on the grass
  3. #2 – A Great Time (7-5): Sent off 2-1 Post Time favorite when making first start in 15-months yet lacked stamina to seal the deal; that was against restricted Alw gals 

Race 6

  1. #1 – Doit for Spite (3-1): Misguided turf start in second career outing after promising debut v. same level as today when encountered traffic and zig-zagged down the lane to be runner-up; second start with blinkers 
  2. #3 – Cut Time (7-2): Appears that might be what connections are feeling by dropping her to $16kMCL; will be happy to get back on a fast track (5:0-3-0)
  3. #8 – Starship Yenta (8-1): Has not shown the early speed of late that propelled this 5-year-old mare to two straight PLACE finishes; gets fourth jock change in past four starts

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Beltway Bob (3-1): Part of Exacta in last three turf tries; toss his latest on dirt; F. Boyce has been in the irons and will happily let the early speed to her outside set it up for her late charge
  2. #7 – Jump Ship (8-1): Just 2 for 27 on the turf; makes third start of ’18 on appropriate drop; best turf efforts have come on a firm turf which he hasn’t raced on since last Oct., his last win
  3. #2 – Censure (7-2): This gelded son of Blame got an extended winter vacation, waiting until mid-April to start training for turf season; finished sophomore year on turf strong; trainer R. Jenkins sends them postward only when they are ready 

Race 8

  1. #6 – Timeless Curls (8-5): Much the second best in debut when a worst kept secret, sent off 3-2 favorite, form was flattered by SHOW horse who finished 7+ lengths back yet returned to win next start
  2. #3 – Majestic Reason (7-2): MD-bred daughter of Majestic Warrior out of a Not for Love mare is a home bred for owner with deep pockets at the sales but doesn’t have G. Motion train many of them; this one musts be special; nice workout pattern for the past 2-months
  3. #5 – Our Circle of Love (5-1): $380k Kee Sept. ’16 yearling purchase for high profile owners; been training at Saratoga for trainer M. Nevin who is 6 for 17 with runner at Lrl since Sept.

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Furyofthenorsemen/The Great Provider (9-2): “Fury” was a surprise winner of sprint in ’18 debut as he typically goes two turns; “Provider” drew 16 Post on AE List and will likely scratch
  2. #2 – Mai Ty One On (5-2): Exits successful winter campaign at GP ending with a pair of wins; required step up into N2x will make a natural Hat Trick a tough task; 2:1-1-0 at distance
  3. #12 – Dothat Dance (6-1): Owns career best turf BRIS# (93) but that was going 9f; will be interesting if he can adjust to sprinting as this will be first chance sprinting

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #8 – Cyclobomb (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Two career races, only beaten by three others and two of those have come back to win; switch to turf will be interesting since trainer J. Lawrence is 0 for 29 with runners in turf debut (Yikes!); fired bullets in last two works over Fai training track
  2.  #7 – Caneel Bay (10-1): Has hit the board in all four career outings, all four sprinting on turf but latest came 9-months ago; small outfit struggles to get to Winners’ Circle but this one could them there
  3.  #3 – True Cat (9-2): First start with blinkers on, testicles off; hasn’t raced since being runner-up on The Big T dirt; both turf tries came against MCL; confident move into MSW by trainer H. Smith

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday June 3rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.40 (1st race), $12.60 (2nd), $6.80 (3rd), $3.20 (5th), $2.60 (6th), $3.80 (9th) and $7.20 (10th). Top Selections are 188 for 653 (28.79%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (68:18-17-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Runaway Bull (3rd race: 7-2 M/L; 6-5 PT) chased the pace three wide around the turn, had aim on the lead in upper stretch, flattened out late to be runner-up, two-lengths behind the winner and returned $2.60 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (66:8-15-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Roman Warrior (4th race: 12-1 M/L; 10-1 PT) raced off the pace early, showed little response in the stretch and finished sixth.

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