The GQ Approach – Laurel June 3

by | Jun 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,347.76
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Exits a “Key” Race - A “key” race is one where two or more horses came back to win in their next race, and horses coming out of the races often ran better than the figs might suggest.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #4 – Runaway Bull (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 / #11 – Roman Warrior (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 1, 6, 7 w/ 5, 7 ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 6, 8 w/3, 6, 11 w/ 2, 4, 5 ($13.50)
    • Race 10 – $2 Double 5, 10 w/ 7, 10, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain; highs in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 6th, 7th, 9th and 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Day of Reckoning/Shanghai Storm (5-2): #1 failed as 1-5 fav. just 6 days ago at Pim v. a trio of off the turf contestants when appeared to be lone speed but hopped at start and jock rushed him to lead which he couldn’t hold in final strides; same scenario, is asking a lot to wheel right back 
  2. #6 – Charming Marty (8-5): Only MTO entry here got perfect scenario as off the turf also adjusts distance from 1 1/16 to one mile as he couldn’t get last 1/16th in most recent start on Dec. 3
  3. #7 – Conquest Falcon (7-2): Makes third start after layoff, second after trainer KTL claim who brought this gelding back in a sprint on dirt, his first on both accounts; gets slop and middle distance here

Race 2

  1. #7 – Max Crown (8-5): Keeps getting buried when put in against Alwn1x as he was in latest; drops to a level where he can be successful though 0 for 8 at distance; watch toteboard early for a clue   
  2. #5 – Greek God (5-1): Trainer J. Maldonado does well with turf-to-dirt runners (25%) with a positive ROI; if top pick doesn’t want early lead, this one will take it and to try a gate-to-wire score
  3. #6 – I’m Mr. Blue (8-1): Pure class dropper play on third start since layoff; 4 for 34 lifetime but likes Pim (2:0-1-1); hasn’t visit Winners’ Circle in past 20 starts 

Race 3

  1. #4 – Runaway Bull (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Trainer/owner appears to have had enough of GP and GPW circuit for now shipping in this FL-bred who has picked up minor shares in open $6,250 claimers as this one is a conditional $5k
  2. #8 – Take Warning (10-1): Racing office might get crowded dropping for this one even though he might be out of conditions after this one; takes drops from $15k to $5k after a rough trip when 5thd in first start after claim out of win for $11k
  3. #6 – Good Genes (6-1): 5 lb. bug L. Rodriguez fits this gelding well (5:2-1-2) in last 5 efforts though 4 at CT v. lesser, most recently got SHOW purse in mud at Pim in same condition

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Roman Warrior (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Graduated in latest, his eighth career outing as lightbulb may have come on due to off track; earned best BRIS# (75) in that one as they continue to rise
  2. #6 – City Gold (12-1): Just 1 for 18 but that one came here on a sloppy track; first flats race since last July but owner wanted to give steeplechase a try in April but gelding “Refused to start”
  3. #3 – Unwarrie Sky (6-1): Game effort on turf in $OC25k in first start after trainer D. Worton $12,500 claim; stays in but defaults to rail assignment; a shot if “Cowboy” is willing to take back early

Race 5

  1. #4 – Deep Red (8-5): Earned her career best BRIS# (88) in latest which is same number as ML favorites latest; this gal is much more seasoned having gone post-ward eleven times while earning black type  
  2. #2 – Zorally (7-5): Chased a monster in vain on sloppy Pim surface on Black-Eyed Susan Day when much the second best; quick turn-around though wheeling right back, hope she is fit
  3. #5 – Pearl Gem (6-1): Been away since last Oct. when fourth in MD Million Lassie; tough spot for her 3-year-old debut but trainer M. Eppler barn is red hot of late

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1.   #3 – Iredell (8-5): MTO entry ran to odds to win in slop against Alw5000s at Pim on Preakness Day; outstanding off track record (6:3-1-1) makes him one to beat
  2. #7 – Malibu Sunset (20-1): Turf try in first start after trainer R. Bailes claim appears to have been a mistake yet was entered back to run on it; maybe a “higher authority” is helping to convince the connections otherwise; this gelding does well on an off track (4:2-1-0) and note change of rider to W. Hamilton
  3. #12 – Midnight Punk (9-2): Runner-up in latest which was an off the turf event at Old Hilltop but that was going 5 furlongs; the extra 1/16th might be his undoing

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #5 – Reality Queen (4-1): Comment here not a duplicated error, this gal was runner-up in latest which was an off the turf event at Old Hilltop but that was going 5 furlongs; makes third start after layoff
  2. #6 – Miminegash (20-1): First start since mid-Feb. and away from training until late Apr.; shows 3 works, latest too very fast going 4f which appears to be a good move cutting back to sprints after two going one mile
  3. #9 – Welly (20-1): Adds blinkers exiting a two-month layoff; 3 career races, all showing early speed going long; first time sprinting; trainer B. Tessore and jock J. Ruiz have gotten 2 of 6 to Winners’ Circle 

Race 8

  1. #3 – Double Naughty Spy (5-2): Three-time winning 3-year-old takes advantage of condition for N3L; trainer R. Sillaman put on his best Poker Face in latest when entered for $5k after paying $13,500 via claim 4 months earlier in first outing since claim and the gelding went gate-to-wire
  2. #1/1A – Punch Nephew/Moonspell (3-1): Super C Racing 1-2 punch could run that way as “Nephew” failed as 7-5 favorite after dueling in Lrl mud going 6f while entrymate showed dislike for an off track in latest though runner-up two back to top pick on fast track, which it won’t be today
  3. #2 – Arizona Baby (8-1): All in all not a bad first off the Trainer D. Capuano claim when thrown in against open $7,500 claimers; fourth two back, behind 3 others in here when with former barn  

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Oh My (12-1): Surprised this B. Trimble trainee stays in as this one seemed destined to be a turf runner but bloodlines for an off track are equally as good; broke maiden in slop 3 back and should get a nice stalking trip
  2. #5 – Ghoul’s Night Out (12-1): Trying to make her eleventh start a charm; earned career best 88 BRIS# in her only start on an off been bridesmaid in her last 5 out of 7 efforts, hitting the board in her past 8 outings
  3.  #8 – Bad Nana (5-1): Wheels back in just 6 days after a third-place effort going 1 1/16th over a muddy Pim surface, facing pressure on the lead every step of the way; expect the same here

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #10 – Me Darlin Kara (3-1): Third start after 7-month layoff, though first two were on turf, he has shown speed on dirt and only going 5 furlongs here could make every pole a winning one for KTL
  2.  #12 – My Brothersledge (2-1): Full sibling to turf stakes winning My Sistersledge; stays in this off the turf event; did so 3 races back showing foot then weakened late; second start with blinkers
  3.  #7 – Call Me Cowboy (12-1): First start since mid-Feb. has the early speed to go gate-to-wire based on company he’s kept in the past; second time blinkers

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday June 2nd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 11-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.20 (1st race), $2.40 (2nd), $6.00 (4th), $11.20 (6th), $5.00 (7th), $12.20 (8th) and $10.00 (11th). Top Selections are 186 for 643 (28.93%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (67:18-16-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Henry the King (6th race: 9-2 M/L; 9-2 PT) off the pace saving ground, eased out and edged up behind rivals nearing the eighth pole, worked further out in the course and split rivals, forged to command in deep stretch and drew clear under right handed encouragement to win by one-and-one-quarter lengths and returned $11.20 to WIN, $5.60 to PLACE and $3.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (65:8-15-9; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Glittering Judy (5th race: 15-1 M/L; 13-1 PT) showed speed along the rail, weakened in the drive and switched to her left lead near the sixteenth pole yet held on gamely to salvage a third-place finish and returned $7.80 to SHOW.

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