The GQ Approach – Laurel June 1

by | Jun 1, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Not in for a tag - In many states there is a rule where if a horse last raced 6+ months ago, it can be entered in a race at the same claiming level or higher than its last race WITHOUT having the risk of losing the horse via Claim. It's often a positive sign if a trainer chooses to waive the claiming price - and a negative one if s/he runs for the tag.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #5 – Shotdowninflames (4-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #6 – Joyful Noise (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 5 w/ 1, 2 ($4)
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4 w/4, 5, 7 w/ 1, 3, 7, 11 ($6)
    • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-4 1, 6, 9 w/ 1, 2 w/ 6 w/ 4 ($3)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th and 10th are OFF
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #5 – Angelinthemorning (6-5): Takes third consecutive class drop in fourth career start while having hit the board in all three; second start with blinkers 
  2. #1 – Patriot Storm (2-1): After eight starts as yet to finish in the money but is second choice; best finishes have been in last two when dropped to this bottom level
  3. #7 – Gfour (10-1): Drops form $16kMCL after showing late interest in both starts, one on dirt sprinting and most recent two turns on turf when first time Lasix; jock switch

Race 2

  1. #2 – Pleiadian (3-1): Usually an all or nothing proposition with this 15-time winning 8-year-old; gets back to his favorite distance and might catch an off track (12:5-4-0)
  2. #1/1A – Turbin/I Came to Party (5-2): #1 always picks up a check but last win came 16-races ago; “Party” is going in the wrong direction, dropped to bottom claiming when claimed for $15k 3 races back
  3. #7 – Ghareeb (7-2): Reclaimed in latest outing by trainer J. Ness so he must know what makes this 8-year-old gray gelding tick; chances are enhanced on an off track

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Cardilla (7-2): Though she was a gamely runner-up in her turf debut in last outing wher she was claim by trainer K. Magee, she’ll do just fine on the main track and adjusted distance shortened to one mile is a plus 
  2. #6 – Petticoatsnpistols (6-1): Two SHOW efforts on an off track in as many tries when in at higher maiden claiming levels; will likely be hustled early by S. Russell; first try going two turns
  3. #9 – Nancy R (8-1): Failed has prohibitive favorite in latest thanks to a nightmarish trip where jock nearly fell off on the backstretch when clipped heels; likes an off track (4:0-1-2)

Race 4

  1. #5 – Shotdowninflames (4-1): *** BEST BET *** Strange event as this one is 1 of 4 adding blinkers; MD-bred first two were against MSW, now drops to $40kMCL but is protected; a pair of SHOW efforts so far
  2. #7 – Our Anthem (9-2): First start after trainer G. Capuano $40k claim 6-weeks ago; adds blinkers; jock/trainer have gotten 26% of runners to Winners’ Circle since W. Hamilton began riding last Dec.
  3. #4 – Stillsexyatsixty (15-1): Must have had a legit excuse in her first outing since last Sept. when she showed no interest when she had previously performed better against similar; adds blinkers and gets A. Cintron

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Tiz a Diamond (3-1): Makes first start of ’18 as she was a well-beaten 3-5 favorite the last time she broke from the gate in the afternoon; faces limited foes here in search of win #2
  2. #1A – Setubal (2-1): Stablemate got scratched from the off the turf event giving this MTO entry a shot to go coast-to-coast as she in the slop at Tam in Jan.
  3. #3 – Love’s Legend (10-1): Third start after layoff; lone win came on the turf but has competed on the main track in limited starts; BRIS# speed figures have improved over last year

Race 6

  1. #6 – Candlestick Nic (9-5): Has hit the board in all 3 outings at this level since coming off 6-month layoff and connections being more realistic on where he fits; can boast top BRIS Prime Power#
  2. #4 – French’s Quest (2-1): Trainer J. Corrales was able to wake this one up in first start for his barn after starting career 8:0-0-0; interesting that S. Hamilton opts for #1 or did he?
  3. #5 – Seeking the Sunset (9-2): Adds blinkers for second career start; took action at windows in debut (5-1) but was away slow, then passed tired rivals late going 5 ½ furlong at Pim

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Joyful Noise (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Of the turf races on today’s card, this one retained the most runners (7), so her odds shouldn’t suffer too much; two back be $16kN2L here on a fast track and her off track form isn’t too shabby either (4:1-0-1)
  2. #1 – Divine Cause (6-1): Has raced on the main track since Oct. ’16 at Bel against NY-bred MSW; has early speed and worked a bullet last week
  3. #9 – Lil Habit of Mine (5-1): Was in a bit over her head in first start after a 3-month absence from racing; gets A. Cintron aboard who was in the irons once before when in versus better, finished 4th  

Race 8

  1. #1/1A – Blow the Whistle/Whatsthequestion (1-1): “Whistle” goes for the natural Hat Trick as previous wins came in this same condition; stablemate goes for the 4-baggers, beating Alw7500s over a muddy Pim track; extra 1/16th for both will be the only challenge
  2. #2 – Deal Driven (2-1): Fate is always determined by rivals willingness to contest the early pace with him; only see #6 as that culprit but jock may not gamble on compromising his chances 
  3. #6 – Dazzling Okie (3-1): Destroyed a weak gathering of Alw5000s in last outing at Pim; has hit the board in his last 14 starts at 6 different venues

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Chargin Storm (8-1): Should be must closer to the early pace in here; has won his last three races in which he’s crossed the Finish Line as three back he fell over a fallen rival; seems to have bounced back nicely
  2. #12 – Special Intention (6-1): Lone win came on the turf but showed he can handle the main track when he rallied late to be runner-up in this same Alwn1x going this one-mile distance
  3. #9 – Imaginar (30-1): Won’t be this lofty a price but will try to make every pole a winning one; broke maiden two back sprinting on the lead and ran that way twice before, then weakened late going one mile

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1.  #4 – Hurricane Bear (8-1): Caught a huge break with this one coming off the turf even though only two wins came on synthetic, he’s run well versus better on the main track
  2.  #7 – Wild Scat Blue (10-1): Makes second start after trainer G. Bennett claim after a game 9-furlong run on turf; only races on main track came versus weaker with just one ITM finish from 5 starts
  3.  #9 – Silver Romeo (6-1): Stays in despite off the turf as he’s never been ITM on a fast or off track from 4 such outings; jock H. Karamanos should go buy lottery tickets tonight as all of his turf race mounts were not scratched

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Monday May 28th Closing Day at Pimlico had 8 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.20 (1st race), $9.20 (3rd), $3.60 (4th), $14.00 (5th), $8.80 (6th), $6.60 (7th), $7.80 (8th) and $5.00 (9th). Top Selections are 179 for 622 (28.78%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (65:16-16-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Day of Reckoning (6th race: 9-5 M/L; 1-5 PT) hopped at the break, regrouped and pulled her way clear entering the first turn, set a rated pace in the two-path, dug in when taken on near the five-sixteenths, battled into the lane then gave way grudgingly in the final furlong to be runner and returned $2.10 to PLACE and there was no SHOW wagering.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (63:8-14-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Munificent (8th race: 9-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) cleared early without much asking, set a rated pace in the two-path, responded when shaken up in upper stretch and held firm while kept to task to win by a length and a half and returned $7.80 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.

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