The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 26

by | May 26, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $261,279.44
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #11 – Top Hat City (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #6 – Madam Alex (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
    • Race 1 – $2 Double 2, 6 w/ 1, 4, 5 ($12)
    • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 6 w/ 1, 6, 8 w/ 1, 2, 6 ($13.50)
    • Race 5 – 20 cent Pick-6 2, 4, 5, 6 w/ 8, 11, 13, 16  w/ 3, 4, 6, 10 w/ 8 w/ 2, 4 w/ 1, 5, 6, 9 ($102.40)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy with mid-day showers; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 10th are ON but 4th, 6th, 8th are OFF
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #6 – Pferd Soldat (4-5): On pure numbers this newly gelded 3-year-old is a standout in this lid-lifter; adds blinkers and gets S. Russell in the irons
  2. #2 – All Spun Up (10-1): Only runner in here who can boast a better career high BRIS# than prohibitive favorite but that came 8 races back plus lone start at distance resulted in worst number 
  3. #4 – Macue (9-2): Graduated two back in the mud, then buried when asked to go 1 ½ miles on the grass in Alw1nx event carrying 147; gets 23 lb. weight break today; will need to turn the tables on #3 – My Pal Jerry

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Interpid Citizen (4-1): Got a nice public workout in first start of ’18 showing usual late interest; last year won in his second outing of the year; one of two mounts on the card for D. Centeno
  2. #4 – Qualify (6-1): 2 for 2 at Pim but on the main track; just the 14th career start for 8-year-old who came out of 22-month retirement to run third in $50k stakes at Grm going 1 ½ miles carrying 151; gets in lighter today (120)
  3. #5 – Ten Hut (8-1): Reclaimed by trainer J. Robb for his bride (Gina) as this will be a family affair with her brother-in-law in the irons; OTB (6th) in only 2 turf tries which came nearly 3 years ago in first two of career at The Big Sandy (Bel)

Race 3

  1. #6 – Madam Alex (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Looked lost in grass debut v. better which came 9-months since last outing; works leading up to return indicate she’d rather run on dirt; others are cheap speed; she came off the pace when breaking her maiden; trainer/jock win at 28% clip
  2. #2 – Analyzeyurspending (8-5): 3-year-old filly has had a full dance card, with 18 races in past 13-months; has earned minor shares in all 7 starts in ’18 but restricted to peers; faces elders for first time here
  3. #1 – Soft Landing (5-1): Rail assignment while stretching out in initial outing v. winners was too much to overcome in latest; cut back to sprint with ability to stalk gives her a better today

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1 – Warleigh (8-5): MTO entry catches a break; back in MD via PA after easily disposing of Alw foes at Mnr in first of ’18 but has reputation of failing when expected to win… as he is here 
  2. #8 – Lawyer Dave (15-1): Will need pace help as he’s the class of this deplete field; has done well in first start off the bench in the past with a win and SHOW finish
  3. #6 – Adversary (8-1): Gate to wire winner in similar off the turf situation but on a muddy Lrl surface scoring best career BRIS# (93) yet; gets it done with carbon copy effort

Race 5

  1. #6 – We Made It (3-1): MD-bred FTS by Congrats out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare who had just 3 career starts w/o a win; clocker reports must be favorable with such a low ML; plenty of works
  2. #2 – Conquest Falcon (5-1): Lots of firsts… start for HOF trainer KTL as he claimed this one out of a $16kMCL turf race when 9-5 beaten favorite; first time on dirt and with 5 lb. bug W. Hamilton aboard; lone 4-year-old in against 3-year-olds
  3. #4 – Kingston Pike (2-1): In for $25k tag after 9 starts v. MSW and FL-bred stakes at age 2; trainer K. Decker has positive ROI going from Mdn to MCL (+$3.36 and 22%)

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #11 – Top Hat City (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Fourteen career starts but none on a fast track; no worries as he works on it and times indicate he’ll have the same gate speed as on turf to make every pole a winning one
  2. #8 – Summer Run (4-1): Winless on a fast track but handles it just fine (6:0-2-3); traffic trouble in latest on dirt compromised final placing; if the rains come, he went gate-to-wire on the slop
  3. #2 – Sensational Notion (9-2): 1 for 1 at Old Hilltop after impressive run against $10kN2L on fast track going 6f; will need a similar trip her cutting back to 5 furlongs but waters are deeper

Race 7

  1. #3 – Rightupyouralley (8-1): Makes ’18 debut on steep drop from $25kMCL but plenty of positive ROIs here as trainer is 26% ($1.39) in first race after long layoff, 21% down 2+ classes, 18% ($0.32) in MCL and 1 for 1 w/ jock ($13.80)
  2. #4 – Menorah Lora (6-1): Turf experiment didn’t go well so it’s back to dirt where only minor shares (12:0-3-5 on fast track) have helped pay the barn bills; rider R. Chiappe will be happy when Pim meet is over (1 for 27)
  3. #10 – Miss Gray (5-1): Second time blinkers and huge but appropriate class drop from $40kMCL as this gray filly just raced 2 weeks ago; a repeat of last effort gives her best shot at graduating

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Renaissance Rosie (3-5): MTO entry indicates trainer K. Patterson (27%) is living the good life; early speed as does most of his runners just missed in restricted stakes last Dec. at Lrl 
  2. #4 – Discreet Deceit (9-2): Winner in last dirt race two back v. similar that saw runner-up win next out; will need to be encouraged early as she’s never run this short
  3. #6 – Lady Keswick (10-1): Will give favorite all she can handle early as she comes off 6 furlong effort setting early fractions of 22 1/5, 45 and 57 3/5 before weakened late in open $15k Claimer  

Race 9

  1. #2 – Victory Rally (1-2): Returns to the Free State after a pair of winter races at GP against some “salty” company; two impressive wins at Lrl prior to those allow her to boast top career BRIS# (93) of this group; jock A. Cintron has gotten 24% of M. Matz runners to Winners Circle 
  2. #4 – Irish Access (6-1): Seems to be the most likely suspect to upset prohibitive favorite as her Prime Power# is just a few behind that one; turf-to-dirt angle works 17% of the time for trainer T. Keefe; third race since layoff
  3. #6 – Springtime Wind (12-1): Will need to take a humungous leap forward, toss turf try and she’s been moving in the right direction under trainer J. Maldonado care

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #5 – Lill Mave (2-1): Rough trip in latest at GP yet still managed runner-up spot in second start with blinkers v. $35kMCL; been prepping at Bel
  2.  #9 – Animalistic (5-1): Interesting $20k claim for trainer M. Shuman out of her debut at Kee; a $50k yearling purchase showed late energy going 7f on dirt while getting an eduation
  3.  #1 – She’slikethewind (9-2): Trainer M. Dickinson lone entry on the card makes first start since last June; “The Mad Genius” usually takes his time before bringing runners back and this one has ample works to be ready

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday May 25th at Pimlico had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.00 (3rd race), $5.80 (4th), $8.60 (6th), $8.00 (6th) and $10.40 (7th). Top Selections are 172 for 599 (28.71%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (63:16-15-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) All I Karabout (3rd race: 9-5 M/L; 3-2 PT) saved ground stalking the pace, waited for room leaving the far turn, angled four wide in upper stretch, secured command inside the eighth pole and drew out under urging to return $5.00 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (61:7-13-8; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Promote (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) outrun early, raced in the two-path between horses turning for home, passed tired foes to finish sixth.

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