The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 17

by | May 17, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing edged Classic Empire to win the 2017 Preakness. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Pimlico for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $890.74
  • Super High 5: $854.75
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Beaten Favorite - A horse who did not win his/her last race but was the post time favorite often is overlooked by bettors in its next race.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #4 – Reality Queen (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 /#9 – Sir Douglas (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 7, 8 ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 3, 9 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 1, 4, 9 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-4  2, 7 w/ 1, 4, 14 w/ w/ 7, 8 w/ 4, 5, 6, 10 ($24)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  7, 8  w/ 4, 6, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers; highs in the low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY / Turf – OFF  

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1/1A – Final Forum/Arizona Baby (3-1): “Forum” is the best of the MTO entries IMHO; drops back to level where he won two back on a “good sealed” track while “Baby” is a likely scratch as he just raced 4 days ago 
  2. #2 – I Wanda Win (7-2): Didn’t fare well against open $7500 claimers on turf so it’s back to the main track; will be challenged early but gets Pim benefit of needing to get just 5f v. 5 1/2f
  3. #11 – King’s House (6-1): One of the surviving MTO entries who stays in; backed up badly versus top pick two back on a “good” track; Vargas rides this one instead of AE #14 who will go

Race 2

  1. #8 – Sventastic (8-1): Drops to the bottom level seeking after four ugly finishes since coming off a 26-month layoff; has flash a bit of early speed without the stamina to run on; might catch a sloppy track, the type of surface of his lone win
  2. #7 – Patriot Saint (9-2): Melted down in gate last outing so draw a line through it plus rough trips in previous two give him every reason to get to Winners’ Circle this time
  3. #3 – Freedom Storm (12-1): Going with the Lightbulb Theory as this 3-year-old earned diploma in latest, his first start in ’18 though it was at CT; nice late run after a slow start gives hope to be optimistic against this group

Race 3 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #3 – Mutaraamy (5-2): MTO entry broke maiden 13 races back, has been in-the-money since relocating from NY (3:0-2-1); will have has no issue on the off track
  2. #2 – Out At Eight (7-2): Beaten favorite in east coast debut for trainer C. Gonzalez by way of GG but was carried out at the quarter pole; can make amends in here 
  3. #9 – Kaboom (8-1): Another west coast export (from SA) has had two starts east and didn’t get away from the gate cleanly in both… the third time is the charm?

Race 4

  1. #3 – No Refunds (5-2): Took plenty of early action at the windows for debut but came up a head short in 3-way photo; wheels right back after a maintenance work 
  2. #1 – Margie Is Livid (5-2): Got the worst of the aforementioned 3-way photo as she and the top pick did the dirty work on the front end; breaking from the rail puts her at a disadvantage
  3. #4 – Montana Sunset (2-1): Wesley Ward trainee didn’t fire in her debut which is news along with fact she wasn’t betting favorite; probably not the talent connections expected so she surfaces here

Race 5 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #9 – Sir Douglas (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Makes second start after trainer F. Abbott claim; had a nice late run at this level on turf when given more real estate; the fact he stay in to run on the main is a positive sign OR there just isn’t another turf race in his condition coming up
  2. #1 – Mr McGinty (6-1): Only mount on the card for J. Ferrer; been training at Mth and will try to take advantage of rail to go coast-to-coast
  3. #4 – English Tudor (3-1): Though bred to race on turf has handled the off track as well as the grass so it makes sense to run and take advantage of 20% purse increase for this off the turf race   

Race 6

  1. #7 – Cash Exchange (9-2): Jury seems to still be out on whether trainer F. Allen, III wants this gelding to run on turf or dirt as 2 of 5 starts were on turf, but results less desirable than dirt; he gets slop today and is better at this level on the main track 
  2. #2 – Colonel Crawford (4-1): Exits two-turn turf event showing he did care to go that long; cuts back to sprint and on the main surface; broke maiden 4 back by 10-lengths in the slop
  3. #8 – To Blave (7-2): Just 1 for 24, 0 for 9 going 6f and was runner-up in lone Pim outing; makes first start of ’18 since after being transferred back to trainer K. Rubley 

Race 7 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #4 – Reality Queen (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Second start of ’18 and second one with blinkers she should improve off that SHOW effort especially since she had an eventful trip
  2. #14 – Isoclone (12-1): Interesting that this 4-year-old filly was deep on the AE List but trainer J. Lawrence elects to run her; second race after 1 year layoff as she showed speed in first one going long then gave way; back to sprint in here
  3. #1A – Bellerue (10-1): KY-bred FTS by Quality Road out of a Belong to Me mare shows a long string of works, evenly spaced leading up to today’s debut which she only gets in as a MTO entry

Race 8

  1. #7 – Legit (7-5): Made a statement in debut at GP winning by 7+ lengths for trainer T. Pletcher; whoever decided on this son of Curlin’s name obviously knew the future was bright
  2. #4 – Zig Zillion (12-1): House horse didn’t respond to Lasix and blinkers in first start with trainer J. Corrales but it could have been the added distance or facing elders; regardless he got the ultimate equipment change (gelded) 
  3. #8 – American Lincoln (4-1): Ascending BRIS#s in spite of fourth-place finish in Tesio behind Preakness starter Diamond King; top pick could be the real deal but this one has run against better

Race 9 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #10 – Popular Avenue (6-1): Logical pick being the lone MTO entry; takes huge drop from MSW to $16kMCL in hopes of earning diploma; appears he’ll need to do it in gate-to-wire fashion
  2. #4 – Quickhatch (8-1): 4-year-old mixed it up early with the #6 in here in latest; couldn’t get last 1/16th but won’t need to today as the distance is that much shorter
  3. #6 – For Brandy (9-2): Showed early foot in first start of ’18, second overall when given Lasix for first time and sent off at 33-1; 3-year-old can get it done versus elders

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday May 13th at Pimlico had 7 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.00 (2nd race), $3.80 (4th), $7.40 (5th) $4.40 (6th) $7.40 (8th), $2.40 (9th) and $16.00 (9th). Top Selections are 158 for 554 (28.52%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (58:15-13-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Roman Officer (2nd race: 8-5 M/L; 1-1 PT) broke alertly and established command off the inside, handled outside pressure then went clear nearing the lane, widened a bit past the three-sixteenths, met the winner’s charge inside the sixteenth marker, faded but saved the place to return $2.80 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (56:6-13-7; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Towson (4th race: 12-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) intent on getting the early lead, did so through the backstretch along the rail when challenged at the far turn, could not keep pace and weakened to finish fifth.

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