The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 12

by | May 12, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,037.58
  • Super High 5: $750.42
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #8 – Slaimy (9-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 /#6 – True Egyptian (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3, 4  w/ 1, 4 ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 7, 8 w/ 2, 8, 9 w/ 2, 4, 8 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 11 w/ 7, 9 w/ 6, 7, 8 w/ 1, 7 w/ 1, 8, 9, 10 ($32)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  1, 7  w/ 1, 9, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the upper-80s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #4 – Pink Notion (2-1): Got an education in first MD circuit baby race of the year when sent off second choice but was off slow but was willing in deep stretch
  2. #3 – Queen Scenica (6-1): KY-bred FTS by Animal Kingdom out of an ARG-bred Interprete mare may have a future on grass but the mare has produced plenty of winners; impressive bullet work to complete training for debut 
  3. #2 – Swirrlie Shirlie (4-1): KY-bred FTS by Gemologist out of a Chapel Royal mare for owners last years’ local 2-year-old starlet, Limited View, trying to catch lightning in a bottle again

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Diana’s Vendetta (5-1): Big time class relief in first start of ’18 for this 10 y.o.; was runner-up last year in first start after layoff and rider F. Boyce got him to Winners Circle during ’17 campaign
  2. #4 – Awesome Bill (8-1): Hasn’t hit the board since trainer S. Lake claimed him in Dec. but those 6 outings have been on dirt (1 for 25 lifetime); finally gets on preferred surface where he’s successfully faced tougher foes
  3. #11 – Chamois (9-2): Been four years since this guy was third in the G2 Dixie Stakes on this Pim turf course; he’s a mere shell of his former self but stretch out to two turns and shedding blinkers gives a glimmer of hope 

Race 3

  1. #7 – Sun Dress (3-1): Clearly second best at Kee in first start of ’18 in $20kMCL when equipped with blinkers in first outing since last Aug.; S. Russell will be fifth different jock in as many starts
  2. #8 – Marvelous Days (6-1): Made debut with high expectations as she was sent off 2-1 favorite but was tardy leaving the gate and showed little interest thereafter; could make amends today
  3. #1 – Bode’s Brienne (10-1): MD-bred FTS by Bodemeister out of a War Front mare has been training extremely well, not missing a work in the past 6-weeks; connections usually place them where they can win; interesting she makes debut at the top

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Slaimy (9-2): *** BEST BET *** Third in latest (same condition as today) which has turned out to be a key race as the winner and runner-up came back to win next out 
  2. #9 – Raphael’s Promise (15-1): 3-year-old makes first start against elders following Also-Ran efforts in open claimers; may have bled in lone, bad turf effort which preceded win when first-time Lasix
  3. #2 – On the Wings Of (6-1): Lightly raced 4-year-old makes first start since last Nov.; has struggled to find where she fits class-wise, off the board in 3 starts against winners; gets veteran turf rider H. Karamanos today

Race 5

  1. #2 – Janes Brew (7-5): Easily broke maiden at bottom level when changed tactics, going to the lead early; been a “trainer scratch” last two times entered to run over the last few weeks… once at a level higher, then in this condition
  2. #4 – Notable Game (8-1): Lone win came at this 6f distance; lone start at Pim resulted in a runner-up effort, coming off the pace going 5f
  3. #8 – Troublesome (9-2): Great name based on this cappers feelings about this one; drops from $10k to $5k in first start after claim but is only early threat to prohibitive favorite in here 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Benevolentdictator (5-2): Third start after layoff, first on turf for trainer G. Motion who previously tried this one on the Tam turf with best finish a neck loss v. MSW; drops to $25kMCL
  2. #1 – Smetana (7-2): ON-bred FTS by Union Rags out of a Rahy mare will handle the turf just fine; owners (Augustin Stable) concentrate their efforts on turf runners; plenty of works prior to debut
  3. #7 – Dragonthorn Speed (10-1): Makes third career start, first going two-turns and on turf; bloodlines do not scream turf but running lines from first two outings indicate he may want more distance

Race 7

  1. #7 – Glad Dad (7-2): MD-bred FTS by Friesan Fire out of a Sea of Secrets mare who has produced debut winners Cheese On, Miss Edmund and Keep Momma Happy; the latter did it in MD Million Nursery along with In Arrears who also earned black type as a juvenile; trainer C. Lynch does well w/ 2-year-olds (19%)
  2. #9 – Girls Love Me (6-1): MD-bred FTS by Girolamo out of a Kris S. mare shows some quick 3-4f A.M. drills; CT-based jock A. Bocachica has done well with trainer A. Farrior (27%) with just 22 mounts over the past year
  3. #1 – Big Bruiser (15-1): Seems to have used debut at Kee as an education racing w/o Lasix and muddy surface may have hurt as well; gets Lasix today for trainer J. McCutchen who gets 38% to Winners’ Circle in second career race

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – True Egyptian (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Only runner in this contest to have earned a triple-digit turf BRIS#; did that in last start which was last Sept. though finishing 8th gives one appreciation of the competition; steady 5f works and gets underrated turf jock, R. Montanez
  2. #7 – Giovanna Blues (3-1): Likely favorite based on the grade-stakes company she faced most of last year, picking up only minor awards; won v. OC$25k/n2x off the bench a year ago
  3. #8 – Imply (6-1): Don’t sleep on this one; took the winter off to concentrate on turf events this year; has a nice stalking style going two turns and has always shown good, late energy

Race 9

  1. #1 – Top Prospect (7-5): Goes for sixth consecutive win as this 10-year-old seems to be getting better with age; will be able to take advantage of this Alw5000s condition though next year         
  2. #7 – Dazzling Okie (3-1): Trainer K. Magee barn came to Pim meet loaded and threatens to run away with training title after just two days of the 12-day meet; this one can add to the win total; been part of Trifecta last 9 starts
  3. #5 – Mythos (7-2): First start after trainer J. Maldonado $7500 claim when this 7-year-old had a troubled turf trip; raced behind top pick twice, once by just a head

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #10 – Doit for Spite (9-2): Was all over the track in debut yet only came up a half-length short of victory; adds blinkers, takes a step up and tries turf
  2.  #9 – Nightmare (5-1): Second start with blinkers after a much-improved effort when switched to turf and dropping a level; will need to make move early as Pim turf sprints are 1/16th shorter
  3.  #1 – Starship Yenta (10-1): Third start after layoff and tries turf sprint as she’s shown early speed since adding blinkers; barn seeking first win of ’18 gets HOF rider Edgar Prado to hopefully work his turf magic

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday May 11th at Pimlico had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (No Top Selections) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.80 (2nd race), $14.60 (7th), $7.80 (8th) and $23.80 (9th). Top Selections are 155 for 534 (29.03%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (56:15-12-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Mother Ginger (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) unhurried early while saving some ground, swung four wide for the drive, closed steadily to gain late but came up a half-length short and returned $3.00 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (54:6-13-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Market Money (7th race: 12-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) set the pace along the rail, opened up leaving the turn, gave way grudgingly at the wire to miss by a nose and returned $7.60 to PLACE and $4.40 to SHOW.

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