The GQ Approach – Pimlico May 11

by | May 11, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $1,332
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #3 – Mother Ginger (5-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 /#4 – Market Money (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 7  w/ 5, 6 ($8)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  5, 7 w/ 1, 3 w/ 3, 4, 5 w/ 3, 6, 7 w/ 4, 6 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 6, 7  w/ 4, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the upper-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

First Race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Crystal Pier (7-2): Only could manage the SHOW purse when sent off as lukewarm 7-2 favorite in first turf start of the year in this same condition; gets plenty of early speed to catch late
  2. #1 – Baltimore Street (5-2): Twice beaten favorite when runner-up in latest outings on dirt yet was also runner-up versus tougher foes in last turf effort 
  3. #9 – I Dream of Lois (5-1): Like the cut back in distance from one mile in latest which was first start since last Oct.; only two turf sprints in her career (2:0-0-1) but should get first run on early leaders entering the stretch 

Race 2

  1. #5 – Platinum Pound (2-1): 3 y.o. gelding is in first time against a few elders after missing by a neck in initial two-turn try following five one-turn mile events where he came on the scene late to be in the money
  2. #6 – Fallinginloveagain (3-1): 4 y.o. MD-bred FTS by Not for Love out of an Unbridled’s Song mare shows an extensive worktab; lone entry on card for NY-based trainer M. Nevin who is 0 for 6 with firsters going two-turns over the past few years
  3. #1 – Cannavaro (8-5): Took a ton of action (1-1) in first race in over 14-months yet could not hold off a rival while dueling for the lead from start to finish going today’s distance; steps up one level

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Secret Temple (3-1): Third start after layoff; was much the best in latest on Lrl lawn at same distance and condition as today; it’s all or nothing on the turf with this gal (8:3-0-0) 
  2. #9 – Taller Sister (8-1): Barn is loaded with turf runners, most who took the winter off like this one; this 7 y.o. mare shows a trio of works which may be enough to handle this group first off the bench as she can boast best turf BRIS#
  3. #6 – Enigma (9-5): Fits at this $7,500 open claiming condition as she’s usually gets a minor share when on turf; reunited with S. Russell after facing better at Tam twice this winter, third in latest

Race 4

  1. #2 – George Grammas (9-2): Joined a string of runners for trainer W. Potts’ initial winter at Tam and broke maiden at their bottom ($8k) level; held his own in only two v. $8kN2L while unable to get in a good position early after the start of latest
  2. #6 – Wilko’s Goldeneye (5-1): Just 1 for 28 but lone Pim start came last year when missing by a nose; has been putting in consistent runs resulting in minor shares; gets best distance (9:1-2-1)
  3. #3 – All Spun Up (6-1): Shortens up to sprint distance where he’s performed the best (5:1-1-1) and earned top career speed figure which was in a third-place effort; jock switch may make the difference

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Baylor (5-2): Not sure what the bettors were thinking sending him off as 6-5 favorite when race came off the turf as he ran to his previous main track efforts, losing by double-digits; J. Rose returns to ride, his only mount on the card
  2. #7 – Angelinthemorning (5-1): Bred top and bottom to be successful on turf, was entered to run on it in first two career outings but was washed off it in both, yet ran gamely in the slop getting an education; adds Blinkers; trainer A. Farrior gets 27% “2nd after layoff” runners to Winners’ Circle 
  3. #10 – Forever Thankful (8-1): daughter of Cape Blanco makes sixth career start, all on turf and has had troubled trips in last three; second start with blinkers

Race 6

  1. #1 – Derecho (10-1): Must need a check-up from the neck up touting this one on top… 1 for 25, never been ITM in 9 starts going 6f and exits fourth-place effort at CT bottom but does own the best last race dirt BRIS# of this group
  2. #3 – Hopkins Choice (4-1): Second start with blinkers in first outing after trainer D. Houghton claim for a nickle; finished a distant third at this same level in latest as A. Cortez earned another shot on him today
  3. #5 – Bombonero (7-2): Lost lone natural dirt try by 13-lengths yet speed figure was good enough to indicate he can compete in this one; also cuts back to sprint and his Lrl works show he can handle it

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Market Money (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Among this N2L group emerges this filly from a 7-month layoff following 3 improving turf sprints in the Mid-Atlantic region for a barn having a nice ’18 thus far (21%); trainer/jock combo have won with 7 of 20 runners over the past year; has shown ability to come from off the pace and catches a field with tons of early speed
  2. #5 – Royal Brown (6-1): A decent turf record (8:1-2-2) but got buried with excuses in only two tries versus winners which was at this level; makes first start since last Oct.; having to go only 5f will help the cause
  3. #3 – Lucy in the Sky (8-1): Should get perfect pace setup as this gray comes flying from the clouds she did in latest turf try from last Oct. which was the first/only time S. Russell was also in the irons

Race 8

  1. #3 – Mother Ginger (5-1): *** BEST BET *** Seems to be a generous ML as she beat the second-choice (#2) three races back in same condition and distance; fate all depends on early pace as HOF rider E. Prado returns to ride 
  2. #7 – Star Eighty (2-1): Could dictate a slow, early pace if #4 isn’t as aggressive as usual early; threw in a clunker two back when in against restricted allowance foes; fits this level like a glove
  3. #6 – Expect Indy (7-2): Took on AlwN1x while “in jail” after trainer K. Magee $7,500 claim and did well to earn the SHOW purse after a rough start; another who will be heard from in deep stretch

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #6 – Lemon Avocado (4-1): KY-bred FTS by Lemon Drop Kid out of a Forestry mare is modestly bred to take to the turf; Bel-based trainer T. Morley somehow has been working this one at Lrl for the past month (w/ father-in-law’s help?); owners have deep pockets but leery as to why she’s in for $25k when she cost $100k as a yealing
  2. #4 – Mischievous Star (8-1): Sneaky pick here based on both turf tries in ’16 resulting in similar BRIS#s which if earned today could get diploma; toss fast track start in latest
  3. #1 – Bourbonstreetlady (5-1): KY-bred FTS by Street Sense out of an Exchange Rate mare whose offspring have done well on the grass; tough rail assignment but journeyman J. Toledo can negotiate turf with the best of them

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Thursday May 10th Opening Day at Pimlico had 5 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.80 (2nd race), $11.80 (4th), $9.40 (6th), $7.00 (8th) and $5.40 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers, hit the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE paid $25.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 155 for 525 (29.52%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (55:15-11-8; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Lunar Boogie (6th race: 9-5 M/L; 1-1 PT) prompted the pace two wide, took closer order after a half mile, gained the lead in upper stretch, failed to withstand a rival in mid-stretch and weakened to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (53:6-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Snow Queen (7th race: 15-1 M/L) was a late scratch.

Check out...