The GQ Approach – Laurel April 28

by | Apr 28, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: $2,365
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Choice - Often a jockey will have ridden more than one of the horses in their last race who are entered today; which horse the jockey decides to ride could be a tip he/she likes this one's chances better than the others.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 11 / #1 – Mihrab (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #7 – D’wildcat Sunshine (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  8, 9  w/ 1, 3, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 5, 7  w/ 2, 6, 7 w/ 2, 4, 11 ($13.50)
  • Race 8 – 50 cent Pick-5  2 w/ 2, 3, 12 w/ 1, 6, 11 w/ 1, 5, 6 w/ 4, 12 ($27)
  • Race 11 – $2 Double  1, 5  w/ 4, 9, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny; highs in the low-70s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 10th, 12th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – GOOD  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Not a Chance (6-1): Early speed on the Lrl lawn has paid handsome dividends so far; sticking with that trend until proven otherwise; enters first start of ’18 with 3 works on the farm
  2. #8 – Scout’s Honor (7-2): Way back when earned a 100 BRIS# in a minor turf stakes at Mth; has hit the board in past 8 outings; been unlucky with more off the turf races than on
  3. #2 – Posse Dreamin (9-2): Went from winning a $15k open claimer in a turf sprint at Hou as 7-5 favorite to up the main track at OP in OC16k/n1x at 37-1 and claimed by trainer J.Ness

Race 2

  1. #3 – Gadget Man (8-1): A pair of fourth-place efforts at this same level traveling a route of ground in last two; finished behind #6 and #7 in latest try but second start with blinkers often moves runners forward
  2. #7 – Rare Eagle (3-1): Returns to $11k claiming level where he won two races back; seems to have taken a liking to his new digs as he’s successful at higher levels since trainer A. Farrior claim
  3. #1/1A – Noble Kent/Uncle Woodrow (7-2): “Kent” and #7 recently have taken turns getting the better of one another of late while “Woodrow” does his best work on an “off” track; wide trip in ’18 debut against Alw7500s is a toss 

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – La La Bamba (9-2): Reclaimed by trainer J. Reynolds after this filly had changed hands in last three races; no less than 5 times in the past year had races washed off the turf; her three turf tries have come against better
  2. #5 – Clare’s Dowery (4-1): Has improved speed-figure wise in last two since trainer K. Magee claimed this 5-year-old mare for $25k but no Winners’ Circle photo; class drop can change that
  3. #7 – Fed Up Fired Up (10-1): Just concentrate on this daughter of English Channel’s turf races from last year, no worse than fourth in 7 efforts but seeks first win on Lrl lawn in tenth try

Race 4

  1. #6 – Timeless Curls (8-5): KY-bred FTS by Curlin out of a Glided Time mare must be getting rave reviews from the clockers to receive such a respected Morning Line; work pattern has gaps but trainer D. Capuano has saddled a few FTS winners
  2. #7 – Honey Fireball (7-2): Pen-based filly was primed to upset the Lrl locals in her first start of ’18 but could only chase the winner in vain after stumbling at the start
  3. #2 – Toma (2-1): Took early money in debut as sire (Overanalyze) was seeing 22% of his offspring take their opener; this one didn’t but chased impressive winner before weakening late

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #11 – Choice Prospect (6-1): Speed from the outside gives this filly her best shot to get her first turf win (4:0-2-1) as there are no other foes here to challenge her 44-45 second half times; her six A.M. works with two bullets indicate she’s fit for ’18 debut
  2. #4 – Thirst for Truth (7-2): Though best finish in two turf tries has been fourth, that came in an OC80k/n1x at Aqu; won’t find that caliber of turf runners in this contest; third start after layoff
  3. #2 – Dance Or Stroll (12-1): It’s about time this one got a chance to run on the turf; by 4-time graded stakes turf winner Stroll and out of a City Zip mare whose progeny have done well on the grass, this one should sweeten the exotic payoffs

Race 6

  1. #7 – D’wildcat Sunshine (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Second start with blinkers will be the difference maker in turning the tables on the #2, #4 and #8, all who finished ahead of her in their latest meeting albeit by a total of two-and-on-half-lengths; switching to HOF rider E. Prado, sitting on 6,995 career wins helps as well
  2. #6 – A One A (10-1): Owner/trainer N. Mileni, Jr. may be 0 for 3 at Lrl since last Spet. but his 6 for 13 record in ’18 stands out; he’ll saddle this MD-bred daughter by Friesan Fire out of a Quiet American mare for her debut; like the work out tab with 5f from gate two back then bullet to finish prep for today 
  3. #8 – Calling Mr. Spock (10-1): Made up some serious ground after she reared at the break in her debut, to finish less than 3-lengths behind the winner; got the education and can build on that today

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – A Dixie Twister (9-2): NY-based trainer M. Miceli ships to Lrl for the first time, gets E. Prado to ride this Hard Spun mare in first race after $25k claim out of dirt race in Jan.; based on past turf record (8:2-1-2) Miceli has taken his time, picking the right spot for her 
  2. #3 – Misty On Pointe (3-1): Fragile Sagamore Farm runner had early success, winning first 2 of 3 starts but has failed as Post Time favorite in last four, most recent in Nov.; hard to believe she has only one work (Mar. 18) since last race; if so, she’ll likely need one
  3. #6 – Munificent (7-2): She failed this capper and others in last two when sent off betting choice; makes turf debut for trainer M. Eppler (16%) who over the past 2 years has only won once with 25 making turf debut

Race 8

  1. #2 – Stay West (5-2): Owner/breeder M. Repole has had this one racing all over the Mid-Atlantic tracks; makes third start after layoff but stopped on a dime in latest at Prx v. $25kN3L; big class drop sends up a huge caution flag but this guy is all about winning… at any cost; R. Chiappe willing to regain mount
  2. #9 – Tiz Emily and Jill (5-1): Trainer N. Heil seeks firsts win of the meet with this 6-year-old mare who hasn’t seen the Winners’ Circle since Jan. ‘17 but dropping this low gives her a fighting chance
  3. #6 – She’s Got a Shot (4-1): Didn’t disappoint backers at 4-5 when winning $10kN2L in latest effort; flattered by runner-up and SHOW horse who came back to win their next start; connections dang the claiming carrot by offering her at $2k discount to get a 4lb. break in weight

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Don’t Poke the Cat (6-1): Just 1 for 22 lifetime record but today returns to his favorite surface (10:1-3-2) and better yet lone win came at this distance along with a runner-up finish in only two tries going 1 1/16; requires an honest pace as he does all of his running in deep stretch
  2. #3 – Cash Exchange (6-1): 3-year-old takes on elders for first time in seventh career start as well as making turf debut; if good form on an “off” track translates to turf, then he’ll do well as he broke maiden by 10-lengths sprinting at Lrl on a sloppy track
  3. #12 – Determined (9-2): Lightly-raced 5-year-old (7:1-1-0) shares best turf BRIS# (81) in here with #2; makes first start in nearly 10-months from a race in which he was claimed by leading trainer C. Gonzalez; out of training until Feb.; confident move being protected here

Race 10 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #6 – Isoclone (4-1): Only 4-year-old in this contest going against 3-year-olds gives her a maturity edge even though she’s making just her second career start, first since last Apr. when it came off the turf; love her turf breeding (by Aussie turf Sprint Champ Lonhro out of a More Than Ready mare); works at Fai have been brilliant
  2.  #1A – Atropos (6-1): Entrymate will scratch due to being MTO entrant; adds blinkers after showing some talent in a pair of two turn turf tries at Tam; can improve off those; nice recent works going 5f 
  3.  #11 – Draconic Treasure (4-1): If she can sneak in from Also-Eligible list will be a force to be reckoned with though 0 for 7, continues to improve for trainer G. Motion
  4.  #8 – Dancingwithpaynter (7-2): Twice a bridesmaid on lone two Lrl lawn efforts in carbon copy runs giving up leads late last Fall; reunited with jock A. Cruz for ’18 debut

Race 11

  1.  #1 – Mihrab (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Had a meltdown prior to G2 GP Oaks when 22-1 and didn’t run a lick, so willing to draw a line through it; second start with blinkers can propel her to Winners’ Circle versus these gals
  2.  #5 – Piece of Candy (3-1): Runner-up in debut came back to win convincingly in next start despite stumbling at the break, rocketed to a wide lead and coasted home; needs to improve once again to be a threat to earn second trip to Winners’ Circle 
  3.  #6 – Miss Mi Mi (7-5): One to beat based on Morning Line as last two BRIS#s win this one as well; playing Devil’s Advocate she only beat 4 rivals though by 9-lengths, none have raced since; with C. Clemente as trainer, she take plenty of money but he’s just 1 for 11 at with shippers to Lrl since last Sept.

Race 12 is ON THE TURF

  1.  #4 – Shrew Meaning (4-1): 5-year-old has only 3 starts on her resume’, all at this level and at two-turns on the grass like this one; has improved her speed-figure as well as positioning in each subsequent start; fitness may be a question showing just two (5f) works in ‘18
  2. #12 – Running Tide (6-1): Seems like trainer A. Merryman wins more with runners off a lengthy layoff than stats indicate (8%); regardless this 0 for 16 gal comes from the clouds so she’ll need help from others 
  3.  #9 – Nancy R (7-2): This 0 for 19 gal has failed as favorite on three occasions, most recently in latest coming up a neck short when herded by winner who should have come down (yep, I went there!); her last turf effort when 20-1 was another heart-breaker, getting the worst of a 4-way photo, a neck behind the winner

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday April 27th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 11-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.00 (1st race), $6.60 (3rd), $17.00 (4th), $6.40 (5th), $10.20 (7th), $9.80 (9th) and $7.80 (10th). Of the suggested multi-wager plays, hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $66.45 (cost: $13.50). Top Selections are 139 for 452 (30.75%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (48:14-10-7; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) El Guerrero (2nd race: 9-5 M/L; 3-2 PT) had speed inside rivals then was eased back to stalk, came off the inside leaving the far turn, had aim chasing three wide into the lane, failed to kick on with the winner but kept on willingly to be runner-up and returned $2.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (46:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Winning Thread (4th race: 12-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) in a bit tight at the break, lagged off the early pace, gathered steam while under a drive three wide mid turn, angled in leaving the three sixteenths and flattened out late to finish fourth.

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