The GQ Approach – Laurel April 27

by | Apr 27, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,750.74
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Cutback in distance - Running a route race (1 mile or more) can improve a horse's fitness and help him learn to relax; it can also lead to a big effort when shortening up to a sprint.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #1 – El Guerrero Azteca (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 / #8 – Winning Thread (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 5  w/ 1  ($4)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 5, 7  w/ 8, 10, 11 w/ 4, 7, 12 ($13.50)
  • Race 7 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 10 w/ 9, 14, 16 w/ 5, 7, 9 w/ 7, 9 w/ 3, 4 ($36)
  • Race 10 – $2 Double  5, 7, 9  w/ 3, 4 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – SLOPPY to GOOD / Turf – OFF  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #1A – Bad Angle Burke (2-1): Entrymate scratched when this event came off the turf; “Burke’ takes a multi-level class drop and has handled the slop twice before earning the SHOW purse in both
  2. #5 – Ten Dollar Hammer (7-2): Should be Fed. gubment employee favorite (wink) and improve in second start for K. Voss barn
  3. #10 – Whynotwyatt (12-1): Has yet to finish in-the-money in six starts but trust the trainer O. Figgins can figure him out; like the work tab since last start on Mar. 3

Race 2

  1.  #1 – El Guerrero Azteca (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Six-time runner-up from 14 career starts, two of those in last two outings plus 2 for 2 being second on an off track
  2. #2 – Love N Kimestry (6-1): Away for 5-weeks but shows a bullet work since; like seeing bug W. Hamilton pick up the mount
  3. #8 – Stay On Point (15-1): Escapes from the bottom level at CT after crossing the wire first two back only to be DQ’d; could surprise at a price

Race 3

  1. #7 – Indy Breeze (5-2): Stolen from OP for $8k last month as this 8-year-old was a Cash Cow in Alw7500s at Prm; leading trainer C. Gonzalez a ridiculous 33% first off the claim
  2. #4 – Crookit (12-1): Was over her head in latest; resurfaces for tag nearly 3-months later which was a winning move at 32-1 last time in first off the bench
  3. #5 – Greely’s Striker (8-5): Could be a prudent $5k claim by trainer D. Capuano as this one must have liked the change of scenery from CT to Lrl, winning twice and missing by a neck at this level

Race 4 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #8 – Winning Thread (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Sprinted in all three career starts with the look of wanting more ground; gets it today though with off the turf only gets one mile v. two-turn 1 1/16 mile; pedigree says she should improve going longer
  2. #10 – Baylor (5-2): Surprisingly will still ship in from Del for this one as her last 7 outings have been on the grass; can still prove to be the best as she should take to the slop 
  3. #11 – Belle ‘n Tonic (12-1): Seems to be “getting it” with each outing based on two straight SHOW efforts while stepping back up in latest; glad to see her stretch out as her running lines suggest she’s not fast enough to sprint

Race 5

  1. #7 – Little Stormin (6-1): BRIS speed figures have been ascending; 3-year-old faces her elders for first time but they all are long time non-winners of two races in their lifetime
  2. #4 – Durango Girl (6-1): Won career debut at a big price but 0 for 11 since; takes appropriate drop after having 5-weeks off to regroup
  3. #12 – Wedgewood Blue (6-1): Refuses to win as she’s had the lead late in many contests only to give it up approaching the wire; see the same here

Race 6 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #6 – Dial One (10-1): Came north with trainer W. Potts after winning one of four at GP this winter; would have preferred turf but she ran well (3rd) in minor stakes at Sar in the mud
  2. #1 – Hot Mic (6-1): First start of ’18 might get the jump on foes from the rail as he’s used to the shorter sprints at CT; 1 of 2 wins came on an off track
  3. #7 – Starry Messenger (8-1): Speedy sort but that’s when going long; handles an off track just fine and cut back to sprint isn’t a bad thing (2:1-1-0)

Race 7

  1. #10 – Service for Ten (6-1): This 9-year-old who has earned over $430k from just 37 races deserves a chance to get back to Winners’ Circle, even if it means dropping to the bottom which is the case here
  2. #2 – Pistol Posse (6-1): Not crazy about him on an off track but by Post Time the track could be be upgraded to fast (based on forecast); another multi-level class dropper who seeks first win at Lrl in tenth try
  3. #13 – The Iron Bank (10-1): His 3 for 32 career record isn’t too attractive but could help the price underneath in the exotics as he’s been ITM 5 of 6 tries when track is “off’ (6:1-1-3)

Race 8 is OFF THE TURF

  1.   #9 – Beautiful Maiden (3-1): MTO entry was an easy winner at this same Starter Allowance in latest as 3-2 favorite; see similar scenario in this off the turf event
  2. #14 – Southern Peach (7-2): Makes first start of ’18; would have preferred running on grass but is no slouch on the main, especially when it’s “off” (4:1-1-1)
  3. #16 – Journeyonthemove (12-1): Scratched out of a tougher spot on dirt last weekend and catches a break as this one comes off turf; might be the speed of the speed

Race 9

  1. #7 – Happy Farm (3-1): Something obviously went amiss in latest (Sept.) as he was shut down and returned to training in late Feb., most recent two works indicate he’s ready for a top effort
  2. #9 – Old Time Revival (5-2): OMG! Figured he’d need more than 3-weeks off after setting those blistering early fractions in the 1 1/8 mile G2 Wood Memorial; cannot blame him for throwing out the anchor; faces elders for the first time; adding blinkers to help him relax? 
  3. #5 – Hill Shadow (5-1): A solid runner who shows up for every dance; makes first start since last Aug.; in same scenario last year won easily in the mud; Déjà vu’?

Race 10 is OFF THE TURF

  1. #7 – Spirit Special (5-1): Makes ’18 debut while making first trip away from home base at Prx; must be sitting on “go” to stay in this off the turf event
  2. #9 – Best Yes (5-2): Another one whose been away since Dec. doing prep work for grass; has handled the “off” going in the past so connections must have figured to chase the 20% purse increase for these off the turf races
  3.  #5 – Clouded Judgment (5-1): Two question marks here… 3-year-old racing against elders for the first time and never raced on an off track but if this gray breaks on top he may not look back

Race 11

  1. #3 – Army Grey (2-1): Will try to avoid going 0 for a Baker’s Dozen as he missed in Lrl debut by a whisker; stretches out an extra furlong in second start for trainer C. Gonzalez
  2. #4 – Crash Mountain (6-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in last attempt at first career win and first going two turns where he got caught up in a speed duel; cuts back to one-turn mile here at same level
  3. #8 – Roman Warrior (6-1): Only two in-the-money finishes from 6 career outings came at this bottom level; jock switch could be the missing piece of this puzzle to get to Winners’ Circle

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday April 22nd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $7.00 (1st race), $7.80 (2nd), $13.20 (4th), $6.40 (7th), $9.80 (8th), $5.60 (9th) and $6.80 (10th). Of the suggested multi-wager plays, hit the R9-R10 $2 DOUBLE paid $22.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 136 for 441 (30.84%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (47:14-9-7; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Sam Sparkle (2nd race: 5-2 M/L; 9-5 PT) was steadied off the heels of SIR BOND soon after the break, regrouped and edged up along the rail past the half mile marker, gave hard chase remaining inside into the lane but came up empty through the final sixteenth to finish third and return $2.80 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (45:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Oh My (6th race: 8-1 M/L; 11-1 PT) in tight at the break, raced four wide early, angled five wide for the drive but lacked a solid run and  finished sixth.

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