The GQ Approach – Laurel April 22

by | Apr 22, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $6,156
  • Super High 5: $1,416
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #1 – Sam Sparkle (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #4 – Oh My (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 6  w/ 1, 7  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 8  w/ 3, 6, 8 w/ 1, 4, 12 ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 4, 8 w/ 1, 6 w/ 3, 4, 6 w/ 6, 9 w/ 2, 12 ($36)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  4, 6, 9  w/ 2, 12 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy; highs in the low-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #6 – Queen of Checkmate (5-1): This filly may not have hit her full potential yet; first start after leading trainer claim could indicate if she has or has not
  2. #1 – Prank Call (8-5): Speed from the rail but will have company early; runner-up to a good one in latest, drops one level
  3. #3 – Dad’s City Girl (5-2): A disturbing trend here as seems to lack stamina even at this shortest of sprints on the Lrl dirt oval; drop could help

Race 2

  1. #1 – Sam Sparkle (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Needs to revert to a more off the pace running style, especially in here to get to the wire first today
  2. #7 – Doddsprivatelabel (6-1): Third start after layoff for 7-year-old invader from Prx who gives an honest effort every outing; likes Lrl dirt (2:1-1-0)
  3. #3 – Hey Willie (9-2): Claimed out of his last four starts, each at a higher level than previous one comes back at same level here but as back class that many other barns have thought he can regain

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Conquest Falcon (9-5): Well-traveled 4-year-old gelding has made 7 starts at 7 different venues; was beaten favorite here on grass last Sept.; returns for first start in ’18 for lowest tag
  2. #2 – Stomp Dance (12-1): Adds blinkers for first try on the grass and stretching out to two-turns; has pedigree to be successful based on the latter two
  3. #8 – O Say Eye (15-1): Could be a sneaky play returning to grass in third career start, over one year since debut here sprinting on it but broke in air then ran on late in $40kMCL; in for $12,500 today and key is stretch out to two-turns

Race 4

  1. #6 – Moonspell (8-5): Second start with blinkers and BRIS#s ascending in last two on continues class drop since claim for $10k four races back; trainer/jock combo been winning at a 26% clip the past year
  2. #8 – Arizona Baby (5-1): Third start since layoff and takes logical drop in hopes of getting back to Winners’ Circle for the first time in 11 races 
  3. #3 – Double Naught Spy (3-1): Popular in suspect in the racing office as this gray was claimed out of his last two races but has been since nearly 4-months and returns at a $10k discount; early odds might give a clue to hos chances 

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – Top Hat City (3-1): Early speed in turf sprints on the Lrl lawn seem to be holding up well; this one fits that bill
  2. #12 – Smart Royal T (12-1): Gets first opportunity to return to grass since last Oct. when competing in $16kN2L, hitting the board twice in two starts; will mix it up early with top pick which could out to be a match race 
  3. #4 – T Sizzle (8-1): Has as many wins as namesake has Super Bowl rings but this 2 for 31 gelding is 0 for 12 on the grass; typical Closing Sprinter who arrives late for minor awards 

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Oh My (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Plenty of more talented turf runners in here but none possess early speed; taking a flyer on this speedy filly who makes fourth career, third after a 13-month layoff; went gate-to-wire to break maiden in slop but first try versus winners at this level on fast track was outclassed; switch to turf could yield better results
  2. #8 – She Doesn’t Mind (9-5): Just missed in return to races after an 18-month hiatus; was sent off as betting favorite so she was well-meant then and should move forward off that one
  3. #1 – Madame X. (15-1): Makes ’18 debut as all five career outings have been on turf, four in stakes after breaking maiden in debut by 9+ lengths sprinting on Lrl lawn; fired a bullet in last/third work preparing for this start         

Race 7

  1. #8 – Be Humble (6-1): Showed early speed going one mile in second start then weakened; now cut backs to sprint in hopes of a better position early
  2. #1 – Final Fear (7-2): Going with the hot hand in bug Weston Hamilton who gets the call in this gray filly who was quick from the gate in debut but unable to hang late yet earned a good late pace number
  3. #9 – Two Carat (3-1): Runner-up at one level lower to a filly who came back in an AlwN1x to be second best; she can boast best last race BRIS# of this bunch

Race 8

  1. #3 – Deal Driven (9-2): Hung in gamely to salvage SHOW purse when in with a speed-heavy group in latest; not as many in here so look for his typical gate-to-wire try
  2. #4 – My Cousin Lou (8-1): Prx-based runner who made a nice late run versus similar in Lrl debut last month for trainer A. Velazquez who only ships with live runners (5:1-1-2); this one likes this one-mile distance (8:2-2-3)
  3. #6 – Borsa Vento (5-2): NY shipper for trainer L. Rice who hasn’t found the success at Lrl in ’18 (13:0-2-2) that she enjoyed in ‘17; beaten favorite at Aqu in minor stakes in last outing when compromised at the start

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #9 – Kabang (5-1): Spent the winter at GP getting minor shares racing at this level and distance; won last time he races after a brief layoff as he will today; gets HOF rider E. Prado
  2. #6 – Dothat Dance (7-2): Beaten favorite at this level which ended his ’17 campaign; shows a half dozen works which indicate he should be fit for a top effort
  3. #4 – Dattt Melody (5-1): Never ran a lick in 9f dirt stakes here as winner came back to win CT Classic yesterday; should find this group easier; will be forwardly placed to pounce late

Race 10

  1.  #12 – Gotham News (9-2): Loses regular jock to #7 but picks up capable J. Toledo; has progressed nicely for trainer L. Gaudet and appears to be regaining his back class at the tender age of 8
  2.  #2 – Turbin (5-1): Uncoupled stablemate of top pick always gives 110% but comes up short of the “W”; jock R. Montanez gets a chance to make amends for failing as favorite in latest 
  3.  #7 – Alarming (6-1): A grinder who does best work on an off track (will be fast today) but drops back to bottom, scene of last win, after showing nothing in open $16k claimer

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday April 21st at Laurel had just 5 winners from the 10-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $10.40 (3rd race), $7.20 (4th), $3.60 (6th), $8.40 (8th) and $6.60 (10th). Top Selections are 133 for 431 (30.86%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (46:14-9-6; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Ring Weekend (9th race: 7-2 M/L; 7-5 PT) three wide the first turn, lacked speed, swung to the six-path turning for home and was never a factor.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (45:5-12-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Ay Carumba (11th race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) ran in mid-pack and failed to rally while finishing fifth.

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