The GQ Approach – Laurel April 20

by | Apr 20, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: none
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #2 – Clickjab (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #3 – Me Darlin Kara (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 4  w/ 2, 7  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  5, 8, 12  w/ 1, 2, 5 w/ 1, 2, 3  ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 3 w/ 3, 5, 12 w/ 4, 5 w/ 1, 6, 10 w/ 2, 6 ($36)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  1, 6, 10  w/ 2, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny; highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – The Forty Factor (5-2): Makes sixth career start, first on turf but confident he’ll handle it due to entered to run on turf in first two outings but were taken off the turf 
  2. #2 – My Brothersledge (6-1): Lots of changes since last start over 5-months ago when showing early speed going long on turf… first-time racing with blinkers, without testicles and sprinting on turf
  3. #5 – Clever Triad (7-5): Four starts all on turf, four ITM finishes but zero wins; that was last year so with maturity and blinkers added, hope for a Winners’ Circle appearance in ’18 debut

Race 2

  1. #2 – Clickjab (9-5): *** BEST BET *** Two-time runner-up since relocating from So. Cal drops back to this level to break win drought as this lightly raced 7-year-old is just 1 for 17; third time out for leading trainer C. Gonzalez is the charm
  2. #7 – Malibu At Midnight (5-2): Took a dozen starts to break maiden and was claimed out of that one by trainer S. Lake wisely drops him to a level where he should be successful
  3. #3 – Here Comes Michael (6-1): Caught up in unbelievable speed duel going 1 1/16 miles in latest and predictably folded entering the stretch; claimed by trainer K. Magee who gave him time to recuperate

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Perfect Cover (7-2): Last weekend the first turf races of the season held early speed very well, so looking for more of the same today and this one who makes turf debut has won 6 of 9 career races in gate-to-wire fashion
  2. #8 – Bluegrass Ball (15-1): This 8-year-old ended his ’17 campaign with runner-up effort in same condition, distance and surface at Lrl; Pen-based runner works indicate he’s ready for ’18 debut
  3. #12 – Malibu Sunset (15-1): Been sprinting on dirt versus cheaper with a string of 9 straight races as Post Time favorite; makes turf debut as he’s bred to like it 

Race 4

  1. #2 – Witchy’s Laststand (7-2): Been backing this one since trainer J. Maldonado claim four back and still waiting for a “W”; toss latest going two-turn against elders for first time; back in against peers today
  2. #1 – Take Warning (7-5): Suspicious 2+ class level drop for outfit that’s only 1 for 15 in this scenario over past 3 years plus regular rider sticks on longer price (#4) on uncoupled entry
  3. #5 – Brahms Romp (5-2): Finally broke through and got second career victory in fourteenth start after missing by a nose in race prior, both at same open $11k level restricted for 3 y.o. as today; cut back to 5 1/2f makes it tougher

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #1 – So Innocent (2-1): Nice turf record (4:2-1-0) as all three ITM finishes came on Lrl lawn and both victories with A. Cruz aboard, who is in the irons again for this “Snake” Frock runner
  2. #2 – Meddybemps (5-2): Exits 5-month layoff to face similar who she just missed against in gate-to-wire attempt in last turf start of ’17; trainer E. Merryman gets 22% to Winners’ Circle off similar layoffs
  3. #3 – Springtime Wind (8-1): Scored a natural Hat Trick since returning to Lrl from Aqu; OTB in both turf starts when a maiden but ran well enough with excuses to give it at least one more try

Race 6

  1. #3 – Saratoga Bob (7-5): Runner-up in both starts futilely chasing very talented youngsters; one a next out winner and the other awaiting his next start; stretches out to 7 furlongs which he’ll handle
  2. #1 – Just Warmin’ Up (4-1): BRIS#s have been climbing in each of his three starts in ’18; nearly got maiden win in gate-to-wire try stretching out from sprint to distance but came up a length short; cut back is the right move 
  3. #6 – Any Darn Day (10-1): Sneaky good debut when a distant fourth after awkward break then 5-wide to show late interest going 6 furlongs; the extra furlong and education makes him a threat

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #3 – Me Darlin Kara (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ As stated earlier, going to stick with early speed on the turf until proven otherwise, many of these maidens haven’t raced on the grass, this is one of them but showed early foot on dirt and has been working well for ’18 debut
  2. #12 – Easyzip (20-1): Double-digit loser in last three all on dirt yet in here to try turf versus better; career debut was washed off the turf last Nov. and with English Channel the sire and City Zip on the bottom, he could pull a huge upset
  3. #5 – Godlovesasinner (5-2): He also loves a perennial loser like this one (0 for 15) though chances to get that elusive first win are much better on turf (2:0-1-1); latest outing was first of the year, on dirt, showed early speed and gameness but once again no cigar

Race 8

  1. #4 – Deep Red (7-2): Living dangerously touting a 3-year-old when in first time versus elders but this filly should get a perfect stalking trip to bounced back from local 3 y.o. stakes tries  
  2. #5 – Bay of Cats (7-2): Another 3-year-old who has beaten her peers in similar fashion in last two coincidently when blinkers were added after trainer D. Capuano claim; an off the pace threat too
  3. #8 – She’s Achance Too (12-1): Third start after 2-month layoff and adds blinkers as she’s been OTB in her last three; back from injury, jock J. Toledo has won with 4 of 12 mounts for trainer J. Egan

Race 9 is ON THE TURF

  1. #10 – Ready Aim (6-1): … Fire! Right from the gate that is as based on this geldings only 3 turf tries which came on the left coast (2 at GG, 1 at Dmr), he was quick from the gate, should be today and able to get an early lead without much pressure throughout; claimed 2 back at OP to get back on turf?      
  2. #6 – King Koa (6-1): Second start with blinkers angle; early in career (last Sept.) was pointed for turf but only got one shot at it (8th by 5+) right after maiden score; sire was a synthetic/turf runner and this ones’ two wins came on an off track which often translates to turf
  3. #1 – Young American (2-1): Paid immediate dividends in first race off trainer C. Gonzalez claim now being able to protect this gelding in these OC25K events; switches to turf where he has class edge but yet to win (10:0-2-1) 

Race 10

  1. #2 – Virginia Fable (3-1): Takes a huge drop from MSW after showing brief speed 2 weeks ago in first outing since last Sept., steadied and was done; might be a puzzle these connections have quickly lost patience trying to solve
  2. #6 – Doit for Spite (6-1): MD-bred FTS by promising sire Despite the Odds out of an Exchange Rate mare who shows modest work tab finishing up with strong gate work
  3. #5 – Parched Ghost (10-1): Adds blinkers for second start after trainer L. Ambrogi claim who showed confidence running this Stay Thirsty filly back at higher level when out of jail, yet the racing gods were not kind as she lost all shot bobbling at the break; drops back a level

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday April 15th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.00 (1st race), $11.80 (2nd), $3.40 (3rd) and $5.80 (5th). Top Selections are 126 for 411 (30.66%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (44:13-9-6; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Princess Palomar (7th race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) stalked the pace outside horses, circled the far turn, was four deep turning for home and gave way to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (43:5-11-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Promote (6th race: 12-1 M/L; 18-1 PT) saved ground off the pace, shifted out in the drive and had belated action to finish fifth.

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