The GQ Approach – Laurel April 15

by | Apr 15, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Rapid Dan

Rapid Dan (#2) cruised to victory in an allowance at Laurel Park. Photo by The Racing Biz.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $345,898.33
  • Super High 5: $633.27
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Shippers - Not all shippers win, because many trainers will enter/ship two runners to make the trip worthwhile; be keen to find if a trainer ships in two, to determine which one is “live."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #4 – Princess Palomar (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #4 – Promote (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4  w/ 2, 5, 10  ($6)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1, 2, 5 w/ 2, 7 w/ 4, 6, 8, 11  w/ 2, 3 w/ 6, 7 w/ 3, 4, 8  ($57.60)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  6, 7  w/ 3, 4 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with a chance of rain; highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #4 – Star Eighty (8-5): Seasoned race vet has been consistent while racing in Alw7500s; has the edge in this restricted allowance contest as the controlling speed 
  2. #1 – Vente to Go (3-1): Talented 3-year-old faces elders for the first time; gets favorite distance (5:1-2-1) 
  3. #6 – Child’s Play (15-1): This gal is better than her latest, which was first try off trainer G. Brooks claim; look for a better effort today

Race 2 is ON THE TURF

  1. #2 – Mutaraamy (2-1): Former NY-based gelding was runner-up in this $16kN2L condition in latest outing after being transferred to local barn; fourth in lone turf at Bel against AlwN1x 
  2. #10 – Glam Slam (5-1): Game effort in first versus winners when just a neck behind top pick going 1/16th further than today; third in $40kMCL on turf in a rough second career outing
  3. #5 – Dutch Blitz (5-2): Appears to be the speed of the speed coming off gate-to-wire maiden score; no turf starts but did hit-the-board in first four career efforts in MCL races on synthetic at WO

Race 3

  1. #5 – Love in Excess (4-5): This 5-year-old mare catches a “talent challenged” group of younger gals but is far from a lock as she was beaten 1-1 favorite in latest and is 0 for 18 lifetime
  2. #1 – Issue a Warrant (6-1): A likely crasher of top picks graduation party; adds blinkers for fourth career start nice third-place effort at this condition; will handle stretch out to 7f based on breeding
  3. #8 – Donna’s Delight (12-1): Worse effort since adding blinkers came in only start of her nine as Post Time favorite; turned in best effort yet in latest shortly after private purchase as this smaller outfit must be giving her some TLC

Race 4 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Mr.  Stream (9-2): He only runs well on turf; hence he’s been had an extended 6-month vacation; a quartet of works including a 5f bullet at Lrl indicates he’s race ready. Trainer J. Salzman, Sr. has won with 3 of 11 runners coming off 90+ day layoff
  2. #1 – Jose Sea View (6-1): All 15 turf starts have been going two-turns so sprinting in first start since last Oct. seems more of a potential paid workout; trainer B. Tessore has won with 4 of 11 2+ class-level dropper 
  3. #2 – Bobcat (6-1): Drops in class off dirt tries which trainer D. Capuano wins at a 20% clip and this geldings was OTB in his only two turfs starts but came in AOC and minor stakes showing early speed  

Race 5

  1. #7 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (9-2): Showed late interest when off slowly against a better group of 3-year-old fillies; like that S. Russell returns to ride after three race absence; class relief puts her at a level where she can get second win 
  2. #6 – Dance Or Stroll (10-1): Liked her last time when rallied for SHOW purse at 8-1; hasn’t blossomed since winning debut but has hit-the-board in 10 of 11 starts; could benefit from stretch out
  3. #2 – Mila Jane (7-2): After a four-race string of three wins and second, connections found her ceiling as she couldn’t hang with $35k open claimers; drops back to level of most recent win

Race 6 is ON THE TURF

  1. #4 – Promote (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ 14 career starts to date have been on dirt yet breeding suggests he’ll like the turf; makes second start after trainer B. Tessore claim who does well (24%) with dirt-to-turf runners
  2. #8 – Silver Cowboy (9-2): Will make turf debut in second start after trainer J. Ness claim and failing as Post Time favorite at this level; bet a “gray on the grass” is often heard phrase among horseplayers
  3. #11 – Robey’s Boy (7-2): Perfect outside post position as this gray gelding gets going very late and loves to be on the outside; T. Hole regains riding assignment after easing mount up at wrong wire yet momentum still carried him to victory last July

Race 7

  1. #4 – Princess Palomar (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Failed as lukewarm favorite for new owner via private purchase after winning previous start; thought 0 for 4 at this two-turn distance, appears to be lone speed so S. Russell can potentially “walk the dog” early to have enough left in the tank to get to the wire first 
  2. #2 – Frisky Whiskey (5-2): Been part of the Exacta in all 3 races (3:1-2-0) run at this 1 1/16th distance but better hope the rain holds off as she doesn’t care for an off track (4:0-1-0)
  3. #3 – Miss Nosy (3-1): Hard to gauge this ones’ running style as she used to be an early speed type but recently has laid off the pace; regardless leading trainer C. Gonzalez has turned this $5k claimer into a top local allowance runner since claim (9:2-4-1)

Race 8 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7 – Rapid Dan (4-1): Can boast career best 99 turf BRIS# of this group; makes first start since last Oct. but has run well in first outing after a layoff in the past 
  2. #11 – Grandiflora (8-1): Seems to do her best running late in contests which sees her come up short more often than not, especially at this distance (13:1-0-5); still the class of this field should be part of the Tri
  3. #6 – Sonny Inspired (8-1): 7-year-old flies under the radar but has competed well in turf events at this level and higher; will get a hot, early pace which suits his late running style just fine

Race 9

  1. #3 – Ms. Picadilly (6-1): If she gets the early lead without much pressure she’ll earn her diploma; faced a faster one than her in latest when sent off Post Time favorite; can makes amends at a price
  2. #4 – Pictura (6-1): All kind of issues in latest when taking class drop to this bottom level maiden; second start with blinkers
  3. #8 – Matinee Babe (3-1): Another Big Apple cast-off who couldn’t compete at NYRA bottom so has a new home in MD; third when 7-5 favorite in Lrl debut in $16kMCL; drops to bottom and will be doing a rain dance as he was runner-up at Aqu in the slop 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday April 14th at Laurel had just 5 winners from the 10-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.40 (1st race), $4.40 (2nd), $6.20 (4th), $5.60 (5th), and $5.00 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $14.80 (cost: $6). Top Selections are 124 for 402 (30.85%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (43:13-9-6; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Tango Delta (6th race: 5-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) saved ground off the early pace, took a bad step leaving the far turn, was pulled up lame shortly thereafter and was vanned off.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (42:5-11-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Praise the Moon (3rd race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) four deep the far turn, advanced to reach a striking position in mid-stretch, flattened out to be runner-up just one-length behind the winner to return $8.00 to PLACE and $5.00 to SHOW.

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