The GQ Approach – Laurel April 14

by | Apr 14, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $314,617.45
  • Super High 5: $743.00
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Off-track Record - When the track gets listed as sloppy, muddy, or good, bettors often fail to realize many horses perform better or worse versus racing on a track labeled as “fast."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #2 – Tango Delta (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #7 – Praise the Moon (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  7  w/ 2, 4, 5  ($6)
  • Race 5 – 20 cent Pick-6  2, 3, 5 w/ 2 w/ 4, 5, 7, 8 w/ 3, 5 w/ 2, 5 w/ 7, 8  ($19.20)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  2, 5  w/ 7, 8 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high temp near 80
  • Scheduled turf races: 3rd, 5th, 7th
  • Projected track conditions: Main – FAST / Turf – FIRM  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #7 – Hydraulic (3-1): Lofty expectations with HOF rider E. Prado aboard for debut; this KY-bred son of Mineshaft out of an Unbridled’s Song mare was purchased for $260k at Kee yearling sale; been prepping for today with a steady worktab at Tam; trainer M. Vera does well with firsters
  2. #3 –  Cyclobomb (2-1): One of just two in here to have already raced; should take a step forward based on the education received from his third-place performance in debut
  3. #5 – Eagle Cavier  (5-1): MD-bred FTS by City Zip out of a Cozzene mare has a nice worktab for trainer J. Maldonado who hasn’t had many firsters but won with them in the past; this one’s future may be sprinting on turf though 

Race 2

  1. #5 – Majorie Mugs (6-1): A woeful 1 for 21 lifetime and worse yet 0 for 18 at Lrl but the positive here is she does best at this 7 furlongs distance (8:1-2-2); has shown signs of improving form in last two sprints
  2. #4 – Saturday’s Rein (5-2): In-the-money 50% of her starts (20:1-5-4) and when not, she’s picking up a minor share of the purse; jock switch back to H. Karamanos could make the difference
  3. #2 – Letmeslidebyyou (9-5): Nearly pulled off gate-to-wire upset when coming off 3-month layoff with 10 lb. bug who just earned first professional win last week; vulnerable favorite who needs to run back to that race

Race 3 is ON THE TURF

  1. #7– Praise the Moon (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ No Chalkfest here in the first turf race at Lrl of ’18; best races speed figure-wise have come on turf; has three “second time” angles going on here… makes second start with blinkers, with skilled turf rider H. Karamanos and after trainer S. Pradenas claim; won’t be heard from until deep stretch
  2. #1 – Gin Fuzz (5-2): Just 1 for 22 lifetime but broke maiden on Lrl turf this past Dec.; has held his own this winter against much better on dirt but belongs on the grass to earn his keep
  3. #5 – Here’s Paco (8-1): Started career on the Pid synthetic with a trio of two turn races, twice ITM; had a troubled lone turf try at FG when in OC$50k/n1x event; worth using at a price

Race 4

  1. #3 – Amapola (8-5): Two years ago this filly won debut by nearly 10-lengths but was DQ’d; has only race four times since, three of those being a bridesmaid, the latest was versus the boys on Tam turf coming off a 17-month layoff; trainer A. Delacour is 23 for 63 (37%) at Lrl since Sept. 
  2. #6 – Magical (2-1): Game in debut but no match for the winner while she was 9½-lengths clear of the third-place finisher; one maintenance work since then for this royally-bred gray filly
  3. #4 – Warrior of Light (2-1): Talented Warrior’s Reward filly (3:0-2-1) ships in from Aqu seeking diploma for trainer M. Nevin (6 for 15 at Lrl since Sept.); was second to next out Cicada Stakes winner

Race 5 is ON THE TURF

  1. #5 – Robin Hood (5-2): This Scat Daddy colt got very little love (10-1) in debut on Bel turf last Sept. and showed nothing, hence trainer G. Motion went back to the drawing board, restarted training 3-months ago with last four works going 5 and 6 furlongs; first start with Lasix
  2. #3 – Helicat (5-1): FTS by K One King out of an IRE-bred Intikhab mare who made her living on the European grass been preparing for debut at Fai; based on works he’ll be forwardly placed 
  3. #2 – Nakamura (2-1): Another G. Motion trainee ran evenly in debut on Tam turf 45-days ago after a tardy start; did all prep work exclusively on the Pmm turf then fired a 6f bullet on dirt last week after arriving at Fai

Race 6

  1. #2 – Tango Delta (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Pure pace player here as there’s plenty of early speed to take advantage of as she did in last outing, a winning one that saw third-place finisher win next outing versus Allowance foes; her BRIS#s have been on the rise yet not close to career best
  2. #4 – Staff Sgt Reckless (10-1): Makes first start of ’18 for connections who reclaimed her one race after losing her back in Sept.; based on 3 races that followed she needed the timeoff
  3. #1 – Lady Keswick (6-1): Speed from the rail has been facing better; nice Lrl main track record (8:2-2-1) but 0 for 5 at this 6 furlongs distance 

Race 7 is ON THE TURF

  1. #8 – Here’s Johnny (9-2): Not surprised after last two dirt outings which came in Dec., this 7-year-old gelding was given the winter off and began getting back to race shape last month; won most recent turf start in gate-to-wire fashion at this distance versus better 
  2. #5 – Banner Bill (6-1): Could be a sneaky play as this 9-year-old has never been ITM in 3 career turf starts from 73 lifetime but the his top turf BRIS# (90) and earnings indicate those came against tougher foes; like the jock switch to a more veteran rider
  3. #4 – Liberal Spin (8-1): A Dem favorite for sure but hard to believe this Kitten’s Joy offspring is 0 for 28 on the turf, 1 for 2 on synthetic; regardless today is the day, right?! Trainer H. McMahon must have liked what he saw in this 8-year-old claiming him for $7,500 at end of turf season ‘17

Race 8

  1. #3 – My Chesa Charm (8-5): Light bulb theory here as she finally earned diploma in 11th start following a string of ITM finishes behind winners who have continued to win; one of two 4-year-ols in this contest gives her the maturity as well
  2. #5 – Little Laughs (6-1): KTL proved he can still train getting long awaited first win of ’18 with this filly in first start after claim and racing with Lasix; owns second best, last race BRIS# in here  
  3. #4 – Sharon’s Thunder (6-1): Makes first start after claim for trainer W. Komlo who is 2 for 5 in this situation; this gal is game (12:1-5-4) and seems to have a bright future as a sprinter

Race 9

  1. #5 – Align the Numbers (2-1): Usually a tough task in a 3-year-olds first race against its elders but the way this gelding flies out of the gate, he won’t know or care who is chasing him; latest gate-to-wire romp was visually impressive
  2. #2 – Cheese On (10-1): Two-year-old campaign ended on a sour note in $100k Lrl Futurity on grass which followed three 80+ BRIS# outings on dirt to start career, first two were victories; talent is there based on prior company; like the worktab leading up to 3-year-old debut
  3. #4 – Ice On the Severn (12-1): Returns to restricted allowance company where he did the dirty work dueling early then settled for the SHOW purse; has ability to rate and jock switch might help make that happen 

Race 10

  1. #8 – Shoot the Gap (5-2): Thanks to turf season we get a bonus race of bottom maidens on dirt; among a mixed bag of marginal talent is this beaten favorite dropping from $16k after making Lrl debut precede by failed tries against NYRA bottom level foes for trainer T. Morley
  2. #7 – Army Grey (4-1): Makes Lrl debut after being transferred from trainer G. Foley (10%) in FG/CD barns to local leading trainer C. Gonzalez (25%); got a feeling this one will show improvement
  3. #11 – Slim (8-1): His name tells the story of his chances of winning but you cannot knock the fact he shows up for every race (16:0-6-5)

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On a chalky Friday April 13th at Laurel had 8 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.00 (2nd race), $4.40 (3rd), $3.40 (4th), $2.60 (5th), $5.40 (6th), $6.40 (7th), $3.20 (8th) and $8.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE for $20.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 122 for 391 (31.20%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (42:13-9-6; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Cannon’s Roar (4th race: 5-2 M/L; 3-5 PT) under a firm hold outside rivals attending the early pace, moved clear leaving the far turn, dug in when confronted from his outside leaving the five sixteenths, kicked back clear soon into the lane while three wide then steadily pulled away while kept to task to win going away to return $3.20 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (41:5-10-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) I’m Mr. Blue (7th race: 12-1 M/L; 9-1 PT) away in good order joined the early leaders along the rail, took back on the turn maintaining a stalking position then weakened in the stretch to finished sixth.

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