The GQ Approach – Laurel April 13

by | Apr 13, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $295,762.95
  • Super High 5: $2,404.11
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey and/or Trainer “upgrade” - When a higher-win-percentage jockey takes the mount over for one “less successful” in his/her trade, the horse may take a step forward. The same goes when a new trainer has a notably better record than the prior trainer.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #6 – Cannon’s Roar (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #2 – I’m Mr. Blue (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 4, 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1, 3, 6 w/ 2, 8 w/ 7 w/ 1, 2, 6 w/ 1, 4 w/ 1, 2, 7  ($21.60)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 4  w/ 2, 7 ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, high temp near 80
  • Scheduled turf races: Tomorrow!!!
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Grecian Dancer (5-2): Second best to longshot winner (#3) in latest who wheels back in here as Morning Line favorite; cut back from two turns will benefit this one more so than foes with chance to turn the tables on the fav. 
  2. #1 – Late Action (6-1): Usually takes early action since claim by owner Robert Cole, Jr. of Rapid Redux fame who knows his way to the betting windows and likes runners with early speed, question is can this one stretch out even with multi-level drop
  3. #6 – All Good Times (7-2): Could take advantage of a quick early pace as this filly will be heard from in deep stretch; biggest class dropper in this contest but trainer and jock are a combined 1 for 64 at Lrl since Sept.

Race 2

  1. #5 – King of Night (3-1): Took the overland route in Prx sprint yet finished just 3 ½ behind winner while recording best last race BRIS#; reunited with F. Boyce who was in the irons for his only two wins 
  2. #6 – Henry the King (9-5): Third start after 9-month layoff but takes huge class drop in hopes of getting third win in just 6th start at this distance
  3. #4 – Off Road (7-2): Beaten favorite in latest for same condition had an excuse; switches to the 5 lb. bug W/ Hamilton to get the job done, likely in gate-to-wire fashion

Race 3

  1. #3– Joyful Noise (5-2): First start off trainer P. Magill claim when third as beaten favorite against similar; if she runs to any of her last five races of 70+ BRIS#s today, she gets to the Winners’ Circle
  2. #2 – Scoreearlyandoften (8-1): Ran to 59-1 odds when thrown in way over her head; now this 3-year-old faces her elders for the first time but back at a level where her early speed could carry her far
  3. #7 – Jokers Tothe Right (7-2): Ships in from friendly confines of CT where she’s raced all six career efforts, last five in allowance levels following debut win; trainer J. Runco will give a leg up to A. Bocachica as they’ve won at a 32% clip with over 300 runners in the past year

Race 4

  1. #6 – Cannon’s Roar (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Hasn’t had a clean trip in last four outings, the worst in his latest attempt to earn his diploma when sent off 3-2 Post Time favorite; looking for better racing luck in first start after trainer K. Magee claim and different jock catching a soft spot while in “jail”
  2. #1 – El Guerrero Azteca (9-2): Rail assignment cannot hurt as he’s been the beaten favorite in last two efforts breaking from the outside; just missed by a head in last effort at this same level
  3. #3 – Stomp Dance (6-1): Claimed out of third lifetime start when dropped from $25k to $10kMCL but faded late after being rushed into contention early following stumble at the start; with a clean break it could be Graduation Day 

Race 5

  1. #2 – Star That Shines (5-1): 4-year-old PA-bred has been away from the races since last July competing in home state tracks; returned to training in mid-Feb. not missing a work, every 7 days ending with a bullet
  2. #8 – Treetop Flyer (6-5): Poster boy for Seconditis (8:0-4-1) seems to stop trying as he approaches the wire regardless of the distance; no foe has earned a BRIS# in the 80s… he has three in his last four starts; tough one to use or toss in P6
  3. #1 – Kukulkan (7-2): Has gotten better with experience while climbing class ladder of maiden ranks; couldn’t hold lead in deep stretch in latest when 15-1; cut back in distance will help

Race 6

  1. #7 – Wild Dreams (8-5): Two race win streak was halted when up against $OC25k/n2x where the winner came back to repeat, albeit in a lower open claimer; this five-time winner from 11 starts will likely have them lined up in the racing office to drop a claim slip though he’s out of conditions, thinking current owner willing to “Get while the gettin’s good”
  2. #6 – Flight Crew (6-1): Second start after claim for trainer T. Keefe as first start was a marked improvement but still came up short against Program second-choice in here (#3)
  3. #3 – Parade of Nations (9-5): Goes for natural Hat Trick at same $15k level as last two; didn’t disappoint backers who sent him off as prohibitive favorite in both; speed figures have been on the rise since trainer C. Gonzalez claim five races back 

Race 7

  1. #2 – I’m Mr. Blue (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Blinkers off angle with two impressive works since latest race which came nearly 2-months ago; leave it to longtime local conditioner D. Capuano to find this 6-year-olds back class making him a threat to score at double-digit odds 
  2. #6 – Belfour (7-2): In-the-money in all four career starts as this late blooming 4-year-old earned diploma in latest when stretched out to one mile, today’s distance as well; his 92 BRIS# is tops when talking last race numbers 
  3. #1 – Kaitain (2-1): 7-year-old MD-bred Lrl veteran has earned over $200k in his career and can still compete at this level; game in winning latest against lesser will need a smart ride from leading rider J. Vargas, Jr. to get back to Winners’ Circle today

Race 8

  1. #4 – Laki (6-5): May have needed that last one, his first race since Preakness Day try when 5th behind a few G1 winners; trainer D. Dilodovico has exercised patience with this MD-bred gelded son of Cuba which should pay off here
  2. #1 – Concordia’s Way (6-1): The comment line says it all “Roughed up start” which could be the reason he’s been absent from the races since Feb. 23; still protected in return and reunited with J. Toledo who was aboard for his most recent win
  3. #5 – Thoroughbred Fuel (6-1): Prx-based runner for trainer S. Lake has a win from two starts at Lrl and has been racing against OC$40k/n3x on home dirt; will guarantee a quick early pace and if foes don’t apply pressure, he could steal it

Race 9

  1. #7 – She Be Fierce (5-2): She be better than this assembled group as it took dropping her to the bottom to score her third career victory; if K. Gomez gets her to change leads then maybe she makes it two in a row; nice record at this distance (6:3-2-0)
  2. #2 – Northern Prancer (10-1): Seems to be a “one run” type and in latest had momentum stymied from quarter to eighth pole, when finally clear was able to get up for the SHOW purse; just 3 for 31 but always gets a minor share 
  3. #1/1A – Blind Devotion/Party Rock (3-1): Decent duo with question marks; #1 was outrun at Prx on drop in first after claim but broke thru the gate prior which surely took wind out of her sails; “Rock” makes first start after claim, also on the drop but trainer J. Ness wins at a 29% clip with this move

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday April 8th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.80 (1st race), $4.80 (3rd), $2.40 (4th), $6.60 (6th), $2.40 (8th) and $5.40 (9th). Top Selections are 119 for 383 (31.07%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (41:12-9-6; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Le Weekend (7th race: 7-2 M/L; 9-2 PT) prompted the pace outside the winner, gained a short lead near the eighth pole, weakened and got the worst of a three-way photo for the PLACE and SHOW purses.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (40:5-10-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Max Crown (1st race: 5-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) quickly clear, set the pace along the rail and faded in the drive while salvaging the runner-up spot to return $4.40 to PLACE and $3.20 to SHOW.

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