The GQ Approach – Laurel April 8

by | Apr 8, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $254,426.59
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
First race on a different surface - Many horses prefer one surface or another, which can reveal itself the first time they try their preferred surface. Bettors can get a clue to this based on pedigree.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #6 – Le Weekend (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 1 / #2 – Max Crown (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 4  w/ 1, 2  ($8)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1, 2, 5 w/ 4, 5 w/ 4, 6, 7 w/ 3, 6, 7 w/ 7 w/ 4, 5, 8  ($32.40)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  5, 7  w/ 4, 5, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Max Crown (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Makes first start of ’18 at a level where this gray was runner-up prior to jumping into deep waters (aka Alw races); field lacks early speed so he could steal it on front-end
  2. #4 – Monkey’s Medal (6-1): Certainly the class of the field but the 0 for 21 at this distance makes one hesitate using the 7-year-old on top; last win came in this same open $15k Claimer last Nov.
  3. #7 – Top Prospect (3-1): This 10-year-old has found the Fountain of Youth winning his last four races albeit versus cheaper but has the back class and best last race BRIS# to handle step up

Race 2

  1. #2 – Lady by Choice (1-1): Looking like a wise $16k claim out of her maiden win for trainer C. Gonzalez as romped by 10-lengths v. a nice group of 3-year-olds for $35k giving bug A. Quiles first win; wheels back here against elders in softer spot but will face pressure early
  2. #1 – Tiz Madness (9-2): Been popular in the Claiming Box having been claimed four times in last six outings; Closer might get a perfect setup in her second start for trainer J. Robb
  3. #6 – Fergie’s Lady (5-1): Last couple against restricted allowance company were just too fast too early for her to get involved early as she’s accustomed; class relief should wake her up as her last win was at this level

Race 3

  1. #4 – Forty Acres (3-1): Twelfth career start will be first going two-turns on dirt which pedigree suggests he’ll handle; makes fourth start for trainer H. McMahon since claim for $16k who has yet to get this one back to the success from early in his career
  2. #2 – A True Gentleman (5-1): Didn’t get favorable pace scenario in first try against N3L but should today; hopefully jock F. Boyce got an education on how to ride him and will improve here
  3. #3 – Likeitlikethat (7-2): Drops a level after tiring badly at this two-turn distance in first start after a 3-month layoff; good sign that W. Hamilton elects to take the mount again

Race 4

  1. #1 – Mr McGinty (4-1): Full of run and a bit green in maiden win at Pen as he found another gear when challenged entering the stretch; should have same type of trip without any early pressure as jock M. Sanchez comes in for only mount on the card
  2. #2 – Royal Hussar (1-2): Seen this plot many times before with prohibitive favorite looking much the best on paper but has a case of Seconditis (19:1-8-1 lifetime); jocks hand may be forced to press top pick early which could make both vulnerable late
  3. #5 – Pferd Soldat (15-1): After earning diploma in Dec. in $25kMCL was in way over his head (124-1) against best local 3-year-olds yet earned a 87 BRIS# which is second best among this bunch

Race 5

  1. #5 – Yes Means No (7-2): By the #1 first crop sire Overanalyze (26 winners from 62 starters) but has yet to find Winners’ Circle in 7 starts so take the drop from $40k to $25k after last two have been worst efforts of career; class relief should turn him around if sound
  2. #4 – Cannavaro (6-5): Talk about patience, that’s what trainer G. Motion has needed with this 4-year-old who last raced 14-months ago, been gelded and steadily working for more than 4-months; biggest question is why offered for $25k tag when he was competitive in MSW events in all 3 career outings?
  3. #2 – Jericho Marsh (12-1): Third career start, first going two turns after stretching out from 5 ½ furlongs in debut to one mile in second outing; though he finished behind two others in here in latest, it was less than two-lengths and can improve of that one

Race 6

  1. #6 – Hopkins Choice (5-2): Makes first start of ’18 and first for trainer K. Voss but on a drop from $16k, not exactly a show of confidence but possibly facing reality; jock/trainer combo are 4 for 12 in the past year
  2. #4 – Xtra Wiseman (10-1): Blinkers off is a popular angle but might be a desperation move along with appropriate class drop from $11k after losing last two at that level by combined 29 lengths
  3. #7 – Fifties Music (7-2): Runner-up at 19-1 in latest seems to do best on a fast track which he’ll get today; hard to endorse for the win as he’s 1 for 26 in career with that one coming in Nov. ‘16

Race 7

  1. #6 – Le Weekend (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Seems like a nice spot to start 4-year-old campaign after doing well sprinting on both dirt and turf last year; shows a quintet of works, two going 5f which provides a good foundation for a solid effort here
  2. #3 – Candycoated Dame (7-2): Been in-the-money in all 3 starts at this level (3:0-2-1) of late; leading trainer C. Gonzalez will give a leg up to his go to rider J. Torres as the two have teamed up to win at a 24% clip over the past year 
  3. #7 – Conjecture (5-2): Honest runner has been part of Exacta in 9 of 15 career outings; wasn’t up to the task of facing restricted stakes company in latest; might come up short as he prefers more ground to cover

Race 8

  1. #7 – Big City Blues (2-1): Third start after layoff but did quite well in first two breaking maiden then distant runner-up against a group of tough foes; might get the early up from outside post and make every pole a winning one
  2. #5 – Colonel Crawford (4-1): Time off served him well as he looked good breaking maiden here last month; reunited with H. Karamanos who was in the irons last July; if the track is kind to early speed he could be the first to the wire
  3. #6 – Cobh (7-5): Can boasts top BRIS Prime Power# in this contest along with best last speed figure in spite of finishing fifth, 8+ lengths behind winner; has failed to deliver the victory in the only two times he’s been sent off as prohibitive favorite

Race 9

  1. #5 – Dionysus (2-1): Transferred from KY based trainer to C. Gonzalez after first start in 18 months resulted in a tiring fourth place effort at FG on steep drop; shows up at MD bottom level hoping start #15 is a winning one
  2. #4 – Ten Dollar Hammer (9-2): Turned in best effort of four race career in latest, his first at Lrl at bottom maiden level following a trio at much higher levels in NY; stayed at Lrl after that race as he needs to win at this level, if not he’ll be changing zip codes to (CT) WV or (Pen) PA
  3. #8 – Colonel Argo (8-1): 0 for 9 as a 3-year-old, makes first start since last July shows a steady work pattern for return; best finish was only one ITM which came at this sprint distance

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday April 7th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $6.40 (1st race), $3.80 (6th), $5.60 (7th), $14.40 (8th) and $7.40 (9th). Top Selections are 116 for 374 (31.07%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (40:12-9-6; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Reality Queen (7th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) bumped by MAUI WAHINE leaving the starting gate, steadied in close quarters entering the turn, had a mild advance to upper stretch and flattened out to return $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (39:5-9-6; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Three Hawk (8th race: 8-1 M/L; 4-1 PT) broke outward and bumped with a rival, dropped well off the early pace while saving some ground, was under pressure past the three eighths, angled out and churned on through the final furlong to get up for third and return $3.00 to SHOW.

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