The GQ Approach – Laurel April 6

by | Apr 6, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $214,705.26
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Subtle Class Drop - Some class drops -- e.g. from OPEN Claiming to Conditional Claiming for same Tag/Amount -- are bigger than they look, and horses making that move may hold a distinct advantage over their rivals.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #3 – Brother Chub (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #4 – Stone Bandit (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3, 6  w/ 1, 2  ($12)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  3, 5 w/ 1, 8 w/ 2, 5 w/ 1, 2, 5, 8 w/ 3 w/ 1, 2, 5  ($19.20)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 4, 8  w/ 1, 2 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in the mid-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #3 – Bagels and Lox (5-1): Quickly tired against two next out winners after a promising debut v. MSW; both were on “good” Lrl surfaces, maybe a “fast” one and class relief to $25kMCL provides a winning effort
  2. #2 – Hot Friesia (9-5): Makes first start since last Nov. ’18 after a half-dozen competitive outings at the $40kMCL level; has maturity edge being only 4-year-old against seven 3-year-olds 
  3. #6 – Rockin Ruth (7-2): Well-meant in debut when sent off 7-5 favorite yet available for $16k claim which trainer K. Magee jumped at the opportunity and got the ideal result… nice late rally yet did not win, keeping that maiden condition; takes the obligatory step up while in jail

Race 2

  1. #2 – Porte Cochere (2-1): Bounced back with a nice runner-up effort in second start off trainer K. Magee claim after being ambitiously placed in $15k claimer; drops back to purchase price ($5k), a level where he’s 3 for 3
  2. #1 – Intrepid Forest (10-1): Easily beat the Morning Line favorite in here (#3) three back but that was prior to claim and on a muddy Lrl oval; drops back to that level and with a clean break could see her on the early lead but she’ll need to fight off others most of the way
  3. #5 – Blue Hen Madness (5-2): Tried to leap into Starter Alw7500 while in jail after W. Campbell claim but was outclassed; lands here a level lower than purchase price in which she’s been in the money with previous barns

Race 3

  1. #4– Stone Bandit (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Appears to be lone speed through the eyes of this capper who has been mixing it up at Prx in higher level Starters; last 3 have been on “off” tracks, part of the Exacta in 7 of 14 at this distance and it’s encouraging that A. Salgado makes trip down I-95 for only mount on the card
  2. #5 – Tipsy Moose (7-5): Pulled off an 8-1 upset in first start at Lrl and off trainer H. McMahon $15k claim at Pen while earning career best 94 BRIS#; had the back class to explain that win; takes advantage of $7500 Starter eligibility here based on lone race on steep drop last Sept. 
  3. #2 – White Bluff (10-1): has had success in the past when shipped into Lrl (4:1-0-2) and like that jock L. Osacio make the trip to ride; earned SHOW purse in latest at this level here last Nov.

Race 4

  1. #5 – Lost On the Stairs (1-2): Tough to pick against this very short-priced ML favorite as the drop from $16kN2L to $5k seems to be unwarranted following two in-the-money efforts while not having the most ideal trip in both; trainer G. Brooks wins with 23% on multi-level drops; a FREE SPACE to kick-off the P6 that has a $214,705 carryover? 
  2. #3 – Wedgewood Blue (3-1): Been showing early speed going middle distances of late and just cannot go that last 1/16th; lone win came at this sprint distance; draw a line thru latest as she lost all chance stumbling at the break
  3. #7 – Dominic’s Pride (20-1): Third start after layoff has not been up to the challenge facing N2L at this bottom level following breaking maiden by a whisker at this distance; could sweeten a Chalky Tri

Race 5

  1. #8 – Splendor Girl (5-2): Though her latest third-place effort came with class relief, that was a salty group for $25kMCL; R. Sillaman/S. Russell get 28% to the Winners’ Circle, that’s well above the trainers overall pct. (11%) and double jocks (13%)
  2. #1 – Kuznetsov (4-1): Decent effort just 13 days ago when coming off 10-month layoff and takes appropriate one level drop while getting distance relief as well; trainer J. Robb 18% in second outing after layoff
  3. #3 – Belle ‘n Tonic (12-1): Still looking for this filly to flash the talent she showed last July in debut when third in MSW; equaled that feat in latest but that was on a multi-level drop to $16k; today she’s back in deeper waters ($25kMCL)

Race 6

  1. #5 – Sky Chaparral (3-1): Late running would suggest he cannot get up in time on the cut back to 5 1/2 but not so (4:3-0-1 at distance); trainer M. Shuman as done well getting him to compete at this AlwN1x level after claiming him for $11k five races back
  2. #2 – Bestkindoftrouble (5-2): Got the best of top pick in latest effort, albeit by a nose and over a sloppy sealed Lrl surface; BRIS#s have been ascending
  3. #1 – In Arrears (9-2): Finally got back to the Winners’ Circle after a long drought and fourth consecutive runner-up finishes since being transferred to B. McFarlane barn; to repeat on step up might be too much to ask

Race 7

  1. #5 – Old Dude (5-1): Twice beaten favorite due to acting badly after the gate opened; trust that leading trainer C. Gonzalez has worked with this one to rectify that issue; if he has then this 3-year-old can turn the tables on #1 and #8 today 
  2. #8 – Take Warning (7-2): Strong effort in latest to get second career win after similar runs in this same open $25k claimer against foes he just beat; got a nice setup that day
  3. #1A – Albertos Al Quintos (4-1): Entrymate scratched as he’ll race at Pen tomorrow night; “Al” makes first start after barn claimed him for $15k off a winning effort; will need to find more stamina to get extra 1/16th in here

Race 8

  1. #3 – Brother Chub (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Ships in from Prx for second start at Lrl as first one resulted being distant runner-up to top local sprinter and next out winner Lewisfield; reunited with J. Vargas, Jr. who along with his mount seemed to have Seconditis of late; 1 for 1 at this 7 furlongs and should get a nice stalking trip 
  2. #4 – Grecian Prince (6-1): Five-wide run in latest when beaten favorite in first start at this N2x level; very interesting to see S. Russell stay aboard when he has a long relationship with connections of the #7
  3. #8 – Prime Time Man (5-1): Could be a sneaky play at a price; was considered the better POE in latest but entrymate got the win; just wondering if he wasn’t asked for 100% in that one as his running line was evenly

Race 9

  1. #2 – The Great Ronaldo (5-1): Overcame a rough start to win convincingly at the bottom level on a steep drop to beat N3L; can handle this group simply based on his back class
  2. #1 – Pomeroy’s Package (4-1): Sheds blinkers in second start off trainer A. Farrior claim who previously had this 7-year-old in his barn last summer; gate-to-wire candidate will be pressed early
  3. #5 – Twisted Earl (9-2): Only one in this contest dropping a level but cautious due to coming off nearly a 9-month layoff though A.M. drills show a pair of bullets; could win for fun

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Monday April 2nd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.00 (1st race), $3.40 (2nd), $10.20 (3rd), $18.60 (4th), $9.20 (6th), $11.20 (8th) and $20.20 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 DOUBLE for $173.20 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 110 for 356 (30.90%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (38:11-9-5; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Misschief Maas (2nd race: 3-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) urged along off the pace and removed from the rail, angled four to five wide approaching the stretch and offered a mild kick salvaging third to return $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (37:5-8-5; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Cordmaker (8th race: 6-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) pulled his way forward while inside rivals nearing the three-quarter pole, took closer order under rating while inside a rival past the half, steadied sharply while keen to go heading towards the three eighths, regrouped and was guided five wide approaching the stretch, leveled off under right handed encouragement, forged past the dueling leaders in mid-stretch and moved away in earnest while kept to task to win by five-and-one-half-lengths and return $11.20 to WIN, $6.00 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

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