The GQ Approach – Laurel April 2

by | Apr 2, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $181,211.96
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Shippers - Not all shippers win, because many trainers will enter/ship two runners to make the trip worthwhile; be keen to find if a trainer ships in two, to determine which one is “live."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #4 – Misschief Maas (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #1 – Cordmaker (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 6  w/ 4  ($4)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  3, 6, 7, 8 w/ 4, 5 w/ 1, 2, 5, 8 w/ 4, 9 w/ 1, 2, 5 w/ 3, 7  ($76.80)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 2, 5  w/ 3, 7 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD to FAST  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #1 – Paluxy Princess (9-5): A pair of SHOW efforts at a couple levels higher after claiming this filly from L. Rice… a move that is seldom a profitable one; in for half the price today
  2. #6 – Tiz Majesty (7-5): Out dueled to the wire in latest that saw the third-place finisher win easily in her next outing at the same ($5kN2L) level
  3. #7 – Kazzie Cottonwood (6-1): Made big improvement (22-lengths) in first start after leading trainer claim; lone win from 18 starts came on the turf but another step forward is likely considering the conditioner (runners are 32% in second start w/ him)

Race 2

  1. #4 – Misschief Maas (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Has a streak of hitting the board in 12 straight starts, never off the board at Lrl (7:2-4-1), won latest v. Alwn1x; can handle step up
  2. #1 – Cairenn (5-2): Handily beat top pick in latest but that was on Feb. 9; first rail assignment at Lrl which can be tough especially on those without early speed
  3. #2 – Everlasting Secret (2-1): Trainers have played Hot Potato with this mare as she has changed barns three times n her last 3 starts; makes first start in over 6-months and a quartet of works starting in mid-Feb.; trainer D. Dilodovico does well with runners making first start under his care

Race 3

  1. #4 – One Proud Wildcat (9-5): Beaten favorite versus similar but that was going two turns; turns back a furlong and a half today as trainer K. Magee hasn’t lost confidence yet to drop him a level
  2. #1 – Stephen’s Answer (5-2): Might catch a break getting a “fast” track today as she hates an “off’ track; 7 furlongs could potentially be her best distance and last win came when she broke from the rail
  3. #5 – Southern Barbecue (6-1): Third start after layoff and took an overland trip versus similar going this distance when chilly on the board; has back class to improve 

Race 4

  1. #6 – Change Is Coming (6-1): Going with a price to upset the Chalk in 1st Leg of P6 ($181k carryover); matched strides with that one in latest when equipped with blinkers before giving way in mid-stretch; this contest is a 1/16th shorter and believe he’ll improve off that effort
  2. #8 – El Guerrero Azteca (8-5): He’s not “Sharp”… far from it but on paper is good enough to prevail over this assembled group but the race isn’t run on paper
  3. #3 – Volpinator (3-1): One of two FTS in here being offered for $16k tag which typically isn’t a vote of confidence from the connections but trainer H. McMahon has won at a 15% clip with them; NY-bred by Freud out of a Flower Alley mare only cost $5k as a yearling; the other FTS (#7) by El Padrino is intriguing as well

Race 5

  1. #5 – Oldfashioned Club (9-2): Was no match for local stakes caliber runners but rebounded nicely in latest to notch an impressive victory in $25k Claimer; connections initially were very high on him based on early Triple Crown nomination
  2. #4 – Threes Over Deuces (1-1): Tough to pick against this one but avoiding the Capt. Obvious label in thinking the top pick got the better of him three back and maybe this one will regress… can only hope
  3. #1 – Ninetyieghtoctane (6-1): Certainly has a high cruising speed and will need it from the rail; gets the perfect rider in the irons as J.D. Acosta is one of the best gate riders on the local circuit

Race 6

  1. #8 – Mad Dog Matters (2-1): Speedy one who seems to be distance challenged as last two at Aqu going this distance have been carbon copies; change of venue and second start with blinkers should help
  2. #5 – Parapente (5-1): Appears to be a classic example of one wanting more ground after two career races sprinting; trainer K. Rubley does well when stretching out runners
  3. #1 – Blue Strike (4-1): Huge improvement getting the Place purse at Prx in first dirt surface start after forgettable debut on GP turf; trainer Jo. Servis adds blinkers (27%) but rider opts to stay at Parx having 8 mounts there

Race 7

  1. #4 – Moonspell (4-1): Disappointed as lukewarm choice in latest versus better; not getting a warm and fuzzy feeling about being offered for less than the $5k tag but trainer wins at 38% clip on multi-level drops
  2. #9 – Mr. Euro (2-1): Invader from Aqu seeks class relief he cannot get in the Big Apple so Lrl is the place to seek win #3; trainer Ja. Servis ships in to win (4:2-1-0 at current meet)
  3. #6 – Earned It (8-1): Has improved versus better since trainer G. Brooks claim for a nickel five back; late running style bodes well in here which should render quick early fractions 

Race 8

  1. #1 – Cordmaker (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Laid eyes on this handsome son of Curlin at the F-T Tim ’16 sale and he ran to his looks last Fall; didn’t care for blinkers last Dec. and took 2-months off from training to mature; love the work tab leading up to this event
  2. #2 – Nico Bree N Teej (7-2): Willing to chalk-up that last outing to a “bounce” off previous one when he earned 99 BRIS# in first start stretching out from sprints; gelded since last start
  3. #5 – Crea’s Bklyn Law (3-1): Veteran of three graded stakes races, though best finish was fourth, that and being runner-up in latest (on Dec. 5) to Audible who won FL Derby on Saturday makes him the one to beat

Race 9

  1. #7 – San Cristo (4-1): Traffic trouble in latest going one mile could have been the reason he didn’t win for 11th time in his career from 69 starts; BRSI#s since layoff have been moving in right direction
  2. #3 – Smart Russian (12-1): Second time blinkers and third start after layoff often yield good results; has a history of unexplained good and bad outings; jock/trainer combo are 1 for 1
  3. #5 – Tequila Hero (2-1): Been knocking on the door at this level since being claimed by No Guts No Glory Farm in Dec,; part of the Trifecta in 34 of 57 career outings 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday March 31st at Laurel had 7 winners from the 10-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $9.20 (1st race), $8.40 (2nd), $9.00 (5th), $6.80 (6th), $5.20 (7th), $10.80 (9th) and $2.80 (10th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 DOUBLE for $68.20 (cost: $12) and the R9-R10 $2 DOUBLE for $20.40 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 107 for 347 (30.84%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (37:11-9-4; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Wake Up in Malibu (4th race: 2-1 M/L; 8-5 PT) stalked while hard ridden from the far turn to the wire but could only muster the SHOW purse to return $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (36:4-8-5; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Oh So Lovely (8th race: 6-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) prompted the pace inside, steadied nearing the turn, regrouped to rate close, cut the corner into the lane and advanced willingly to gain the place to return $8.00 to PLACE and $4.60 to SHOW.

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