The GQ Approach – Laurel March 31

by | Mar 31, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 0 comments

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $166,236
  • Super High 5: $13,155
  • Late Pick 5: $2,906
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Troubled Trip in most recent race - Comments like “Steadied," “Checked," “Taken Up,” “5-6 wide throughout," etc. often point to a live horse that the bettors will overlook.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #6 – Wake Up in Malibu (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #2 – Oh So Lovely (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  5, 6, 7  w/ 1, 4  ($12)
  • Race 5 – 20 cent Pick-6  3, 5 w/ 1, 5, 7 w/ 1, 8 w/ 2, 7 w/ 1, 5, 7, 9 w/ 2, 7  ($38.40)
  • Race 9 – $2 Double  1, 7, 9  w/ 7 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the upper-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST  

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #6 – Witchy’s Laststand (2-1): Doesn’t seem to like the short sprints so gets 7 furlongs in second start with blinkers and for trainer J. Maldonado
  2. #7 – Brahms Romp (7-2): Game effort when losing by a whisker versus similar 3 weeks ago; cuts back one furlong from that one as K. Gomez tries to break a two race string of runner-up finishes
  3. #5 – Lucky Kick (6-1): Third in first start versus winners in $5kN2L and new connections wheel him right back while in jail giving tall task to 10 lb. bug A. Quiles who won first career race last weekend

Race 2

  1. #1 – Mutaraabit (6-5): Playing the part of a Chalk eating weasel here as trainer ships this Shadwell home bred in from Prx for third try at Lrl to earn diploma; adds blinkers 
  2. #4 – Colonel Juan (5-2): Off the board as beaten favorite in last outing (Dec. 16) when equipped with blinkers but they stay on today; one of two on the card for trainer John Servis
  3. #5 – Admiration (6-1): Trainer B. Trimble getting a nice start to her career (7: 3-1-0) with Peter Blum runners but this gelding is one of those who didn’t hit the board (4th in debut); with Unbridled’s Song as sire and Storm Bird on the bottom, two turns should suit him better

Race 3

  1. #3 – Two Carat (9-2): Didn’t improve, actually regressed when dropped from $40k to $25kMCL; takes another drop down in hopes of a lightbulb going on
  2. #6 – Mystic Belle (20-1): Fourth at CT bottom ($5kMCL) going 4 ½ furlongs which is rough on a runner who is void of speed; like chances here simply because most of this field have early foot and have been unable to finish; maybe by default jock R. Paz can perform an Easter miracle
  3. #1 – Matinee Babe (8-5): Tough to take such a short price on a 12-time loser who was vanned off in latest on Feb. 8th at Aqu; seems like another one-way NY-shipper for trainer R. Rodriguez

Race 4

  1. #6 – Wake Up in Malibu (2-1): *** BEST BET *** NY-shipper makes third trip to Lrl (2:1-0-1)  coming off runner-up effort, losing the lead late while going 1/16th further than today was pressured every step of the way in that one but foresee an easier early run versus this group
  2. #3 – Bust Another (5-2): Similar effort as top pick in his first start of the year (Feb. 17) unable to get by winner in extended duel on home (Prx) oval; seems to do better on an off track; makes Lrl debut 
  3. #1 – Two Charley’s (7-2): Draws rail for first time in 14-race career so without early speed he’ll be in a nice stalking position as “Cowboy” Hamilton will hope for a speed duel from top two

Race 5

  1. #5 – Greely’s Striker (7-2): Nice job by trainer W. Potts bring this 6-year-old mare in from CT to face better at Lrl with immediate success (2:1-1-0); until then had a hard time finding Winners Circle (40:3-5-8); she’ll get J. Toledo as the pilot for the first time
  2. #3 – Our Gabrielle (3-1): Failed as Post Time favorite in first start for trainer M. Eppler after claim; that was against a level higher and today she’s back in for a nickel where she romped for J. Ness 
  3. #6 – Hy Rapid Lady (5-1): Invader from Prx for trainer J. Ness after tiring as favorite in first start after claim v. open $8k claimers; drops back to level she can handle while making Lrl debut       

Race 6

  1. #7 – Winning Road (7-2): A real Gamer as this 5-year-old gelding gives an honest effort every time out (11:2-4-1); NY-based trainer M. Dilger’s three previous runners at Lrl didn’’t hit the board but this MD-will likely change that in first start since late Nov.
  2. #1/1A – Union Blues/Deal Driven (3-1): Though the short odds is largely due to “Blues” sudden ability to compete at this level, “Driven” may hold the key to the race and could steal it if left loose on an easy early lead
  3. #5 – King Koa (7-2): Adds blinkers, reunited with “Cowboy” Hamilton who got the SHOW purse versus similar last Dec.; makes first start in 2-months following an “evenly” outing at Aqu

Race 7

  1. #1 – Bay of Cats (3-1): Winner of latest when equipped with blinkers in first start after claim for trainer D. Capuano gets the rail again along with W. Hamilton in the irons
  2. #8 – Right On (9-2): Third start after layoff, second start with blinkers, NY-based shipper will try to break trainer B. Brown’s Lrl meet maiden (5:0-0-1)
  3. #2 – Prank Call (5-1): Ran off the TV screen in gate-to-wire win for $15k when claimed by trainer W. Potts in latest effort; takes logical step up while R. Chiappe retains mount, his first for these connections

Race 8

  1. #2 – Oh So Lovely (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ This gals breeding is too good not to eventually shine through on the track as was the case of her dam who won the Shine Again stakes in her day
  2. #7 – Menorah Lora (7-2): Veteran of 13 races in her young career was third one level higher just 8 days ago and gets an added 1/16th which helps her late running style
  3. #4 – Our Cotton Ball (5-2): This Sagamore Farm home/MD-bred gray daughter of Dunkirk out of a Dehere mare might be a soft one since she debuts against bottom level maidens for an outfit who wins at a 35% clip in with firsters; if she’s “the goods” then why risk losing her for $10k?

Race 9

  1. #7 – Stormologist (5-1): Beaten favorite in latest may have been a case of asking too much of her too soon with 3 races in a 33-day span; can bounce back against these fillies
  2. #1 – Stella B. (7-2): Ran a big BRIS# (91) going two-turns in latest; returns to the one-mile distance where she earned lone win
  3. #9 – Child’s Play (5-1): First start after trainer G. Books claim as this gal seems to find trouble as she’s encountered traffic in 4 of her last 5; won by 15-lengths in her only clean trip

Race 10

  1. #7 – Tam Tam Attack (1-1): Takes unwarranted class drop from $16k to $5k after losing lead in deep stretch as similar priced favorite; won for fun two back against $10kN2L
  2. #2 – Awesome Standard (7-2): Been placed where he can be successful but only managing minor shares since winning v. $10kN2L in Nov.; is a “Need the Lead” type and should get it in here
  3. #6 – Papacho (15-1): Might be the kind who helps someone take down Pick-6 ($166k carryover); fits at this level after a brief layoff to right the ship while reunited with S. Russell

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday March 30th at Laurel had just 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $12.60 (1st race), $5.80 (2nd), $6.00 (4th), $20.00 (5th), $3.80 (6th) and $4.60 (7th). Top Selections are 102 for 337 (30.27%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (36:11-9-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Emoticon (4th race: 9-5 M/L; 2-1 PT) stalked, settled outside foes while not too far back, took closer order under pressure mid turn, rallied under left handed rousing and took command between rivals in mid-stretch, dug in when confronted from his outside and proved best by a half-length to return $6.00 to WIN, $4.00 to PLACE and $2.60 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (35:4-7-5; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Service for Ten (6th race: 10-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) lagged in the rear as usual but when asked for his best stride gave nothing in the stretch to finish fifth.

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