The GQ Approach – Laurel March 24

by | Mar 24, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $117,000.06
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Lone Mount - Depending on how many mounts a jockey typically gets on a given day, if a jock only has one mount, especially towards the end of the day, that horse warrants a second look.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 4 / #5 – Bash (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #2 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 3  w/ 2, 5  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 6, 7  w/ 3, 4, 5  w/ 5, 7, 10  ($13.50)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  4, 5 w/5, 7, 10 w/ 3, 8 w/ 1, 2, 6, 9 w/ 1, 3 w/ 4, 6, 9  ($57.60)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 4, 6, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny, highs in the mid-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #2 – Wonder How (4-1): Speedy gelding with stamina lost all chance at the start in latest, couldn’t get lead and gave up quickly or was there an issue as he drops from $25k to $5k here
  2. #3 – Lucky Kick (5-1): Improving BRIS#s since stretching out from sprint in debut; a game third in first try versus winners
  3. #6 – Kinder (3-1): Trainer W. Potts acquired this one at Tam while there for the winter; broke maiden after adding blinkers then third versus $8kN2L in latest though that was 2-months ago

Race 2

  1. #5 – Shoot the Gap (9-5): NY-based runner for trainer T. Morley needed to come south in hopes of graduating from maiden ranks after six failed attempts at NYRA bottom level; draws a very soft group
  2. #2 – Me Darlin Chessie (7-2): Didn’t care for sloppy Lrl surface and/or step up after nose loss at this level and distance; astonishing that HOF trainer KTL is 0-fer in ’18 from 16 starters
  3. #7 – Maimo (9-2): Another Big Apple export taking multiple class level drop for good reason as he’s beaten a total of four rivals in last three outings

Race 3

  1. #6 – County Club (9-2): Failed in last pair of efforts as Post Time favorite, the latest a head scratcher as to why because she can’t get 6 furlongs in a pickup truck; got cooked along with dueling rival; only one other in here to match her strides early
  2. #7 – Troublesome (3-1): Was ambitiously placed in AlwN1x in first local start back from So. CA where she couldn’t cut it; steep class drop might keep the would-be claimers at bay
  3. #3 – Majestic Pic (4-1): Apprentice rider W. Hamilton elects to reunite with this one v. stay on top pick… hmmm; been managing minor shares versus similar so maybe 7 lb. break will help

Race 4

  1. #5 – Bash (5-2): *** BEST BET *** Took early money in second start of career but late rally came up short; owner/breeder Manfuso only keeps and races to most promising ones, so this gal shouldn’t be a maiden much longer
  2. #4 – Nightmare (6-1): MD-bred FTS by Northern Afleet out of a Kafwain mare was scratched yesterday to go here against just five others; trainer D. Barr does nice with MCL firsters (20%) with +3.92 ROI
  3. #3 – Kuznetsov (7-2): Been away since last May as something went amiss losing by 22-lengths; like the well-spaced six morning drills; J. Robb among the best local conditioners getting young runners race ready

Race 5

  1. #10 – Shecor (3-1): Second start with blinkers as first resulted in convincing victory when 11-1 cutting back from two turns to sprint, earning best speed fig and there’s room for improvement
  2. #5 – Rock On Sandy (4-1): Blinker off is a 31% winning angle for NY-based trainer R. Diodoro whose filly can’t cut it at NYRA bottom level but those were on an off track; fits with these
  3. #7 – Queen of Checkmate (9-2): BRIS speed figs continue to ascend coming off third win of career from 11 starts in spite of a rough trip; last to fast track starts resulted in a “W”

Race 6

  1. #8 – Starvista (9-2): Makes second career start but first since last Sept and that was on the turf… why is the question; both Mom and Dad only won on dirt… sprinting… as this filly will today; love all the works leading up to return 
  2. #3 – Mercurian (4-1): Fourth/last in debut at The Big A in the slop going a mile; adds blinkers, a 23% winning move for trainer L. Rice runners who is also 25% with those making second start
  3. #4 – Simonela (3-1): This 3-year-old “Iron Filly” makes 18th career start having been bridesmaid in seven of them; jumps back up against $40kMCL following two seconds at $25k

Race 7

  1. #2 – Emma’sdiamonddiva (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ She’ll face a ton of early speed, which she doesn’t have; hasn’t hit the board in three tries v. winners but is built for one mile or further; faced a very good group in her only one mile effort two back
  2. #1/1A – Drops and Buckets/Greasedlightning (7-2): Stablemates are recent acquisitions for M. Trombetta who had difference results in first race off claim… “Drops” improved while “Lightning” regressed though against better; either could get the job done 
  3. #6 – Mila Jane (5-1): Computer-error as she should not be 50-1 ML especially after winning latest just one level lower; ol’ GQ makes her 5-1 as she goes for fourth win in last 5 starts

Race 8

  1. #3 – Injaazaat (3-1): Short field and this gelding is the only one willing to be on the front end and prefers it; will need to carry speed two turns for a gate-to-wire score
  2. #1 – Roethlisberger (5-2): A pattern has developed of late for this 4-year-old colt since dropping to non-winners of conditions in that he wins-runs-second; time to run second; third race after layoff
  3. #6 – Painted Patchen (9-2): Has done well since Team Gaudet claimed him a year ago, giving him needed time off and gelded him prior to return in Jan; only thing missing other than the family jewels is an appearance in the Winners’ Circle

Race 9

  1. #9 – Cannon’s Roar (7-2): Change of jock could make the difference from runner-up to winner as could the outside post v. stuck on the rail like in last outing; just 1 of 2 in here dropping in class  
  2. #6 – Slim (5-1): Been burning bettor’s money his entire 15 race career being sent off 4-1 or less yet still a maiden; got wrong end of win photo in latest; ITM in 9 of 12 starts at Lrl
  3. #4 – O Say Eye (20-1): Been just short of a year since debut which was forgettable on the grass; trainer P. Schoenthal put this one on the shelf until Dec. then worked him five times, the latest from the gate

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday March 23rd at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.20 (2nd race), $5.60 (3rd), $3.80 (5th), $8.00 (6th), $2.80 (7th), $3.00 (8th) and $5.60 (9th). Top Selections are 95 for 311 (30.55%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (33:9-8-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Island Queen (1st race: 2-1 M/L; 3-2 PT) chased the pace three-wide then faltered after six furlongs to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (32:4-7-4; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Magical (7th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) prompted the early pace two wide, gained a short lead leaving the turn but could not repel winners bid while being much the second best to return $2.60 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.

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