The GQ Approach – Laurel March 23

by | Mar 23, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live spring racing meet, Post Time 1:10pm EDT including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $109,253.01
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey/Trainer Combo - Take advantage of the statistics provided with the Past Performances, which give these stats for the current meet and over the past year; some trainer and jocks win at inordinately high rates.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 1 / #7 – Island Queen (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #4 – Magical (8-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  7  w/ 1. 3, 4  ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 3  w/ 3, 4, 9  w/ 3, 4, 6  ($13.50)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  3, 4, 9 w/ 3, 4 w/ 2, 3, 7 w/ 1, 3, 4 w/ 1, 5 w/ 1, 5, 7, 8  ($86.40)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 5  w/ 1, 5, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Sunny, highs in the mid-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EDT

Race 1

  1. #7 – Island Queen (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Hard not to give this one the nod let alone leaving her off your ticket  based on what she’s done since trainer J. O’Dwyer claim three back; that fourth was against a bunch of fine fillies; not concerned about the drop
  2. #5 – Mo Money Monica (5-1): Been a different runner since being stretched out to one mile; extra sixteenth should be no problem; a distant second to top pick two back
  3. #3 – Florida Lady (3-1): Only entry on the card for trainer L. Rice who ships in from Aqu after biting off more than she could chew in first start v. winners ($32kN2L) trailing throughout

Race 2

  1. #3 – Noregretsfornow (2-1): Lynch trainee was ambitiously placed for first start v. winners coming off nearly a 3-month layoff yet almost pulled an upset; should have plenty of pace to catch in deep stretch 
  2. #1 – Albertos Al Qunito (3-1): Claimed out of latest by leading trainer C. Gonzalez (31% in first off claim) but uncharacteristically waits until out of jail to run back; at least he’s back in at same level
  3. #4 – Sir Brahms (5-2): Game try in first start of ’18 when third and ahead of a couple other foes in here (#1 and #5) but that was 7 weeks ago; lone win came on Lrl dirt oval at this distance

Race 3

  1. #2– Visual Effects (2-1): Hamilton stays aboard in lieu of taking mount on #1; running style doesn’t bode well for this 5½ furlongs but is 1 for 1 at the distance; second start after one-year vacation 
  2. #3 – Off Road (8-5): Drops back to $10k tag after two tries a level higher after claim; gets 10th different rider in last 11 starts
  3. #1 – Cent Comm (10-1): Found $10kN3L much tougher after an easy win v. $5kN2L; taking a flyer that he’ll like the cut back to sprint

Race 4

  1. #4 – Lost On the Stairs (4-1): Wasn’t too happy at the break losing all chance yet still rallied taking the overland route (5-wide on the turn) to be second best; better break here will equal better result
  2. #3 – Thirst for Truth (3-1): A pair of sixth-place finishes against much better as been getting minor shares since breaking maiden 13-months ago; gets leading rider J. Vargas, Jr. for the first time
  3. #9 – Claravoyant (4-1): Been picking up minor shares against better since breaking maiden just over a year ago (10 races back); trainer M. Eppler makes another rider change in hopes of getting to Winners’ Circle

Race 5

  1. #3 – She’s Got a Shot (7-5): Prohibitive favorite took a 2-month hiatus after showing some late interest in first start after claim; gets H. Karamanos as pilot who can improve her versus these     
  2. #4 – Saturday’s Rein (3-1): Hits the board in more than half her starts but just one trip to Winners’ Circle which came at Pen in PA-bred bottom level; ye of little faith… the stretch out to 7f gives hope
  3. #6 – Kyleigh’s Smile (15-1): 5-year-old mare has a hard time stringing races without a break but if this one can wipe away the memory of her 27-length loss

Race 6

  1. #7 – Wedgewood Blue (2-1): Ran out of gas going one mile in the mud in latest but did the same two back at this distance; third start after layoff might be the charm
  2. #3 – Ladyoftheheirarchy (3-1): Should match strides early with top pick as she broke maiden going two back going 7 panels at bottom then was in over her head v. $16kN2L in latest
  3. #2 – Janealee (5-2): Gets different jock after two questionable rides making premature moves going longer; cut back to 7 furlongs with a more patient ride gets career win #2

Race 7

  1. #4 – Magical (8-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Home/KY-bred FTS by Tapit out of an Empire Maker mare for Peter Blum who gave freshman trainer B. Trimble her first winner last month; has extensive work tab; like the latest going 5f
  2. #3 – It Was Considered (5-2): Sagamore Farm ’16 purchase for $95k when a two-year-old has taken longer than usual to make it to the races, otherwise she’s a top pick with those recent works
  3. #1 – Cut Time (15-1): Could be the price horse that Pick-6 players need to weed out the Chalk; decent performance mixing it up early when stepped up to this MSW level off claim for $16k

Race 8

  1. #1/1A – Prime Time Man/Spirit Grabber (1-1): Double trouble for foes today as both have the goods to win; prefer “Man” based on strong effort in latest though he’s 0 for 7 on fast track; “Spirit” will at very least guarantee a spirited early pace 
  2. #5 – Uncle Woodrow (8-1): Been 6-months since last effort but quartet of works and confidence from trainer J. Ness to come back in protected event makes him worth a second look
  3. #3 – Sam Sparkle (3-1): Huge disappointment in last outing versus a trio of foes and hung badly but have to like fact first race off claim this 10-year-old is protected

Race 9

  1. #1 – Cherokee Fire (7-2): Rail assignment may not be a hinderance as sub-freezing temps and snow may make the rail the place to be; owns best BRIS# of this bunch
  2. #5 – Rockin Ruth (5-1): Usually steer clear of FTS in for $16k tag but this Majestic Warrior filly only cost $5k, so trainer G. Capuano might be trying to sneak in a win which would be first with a firster in maiden claimer
  3. #8 – Pictura (6-1): It’s not often you see a runner go off Post Time favorite on the step up after a third-place effort at 50-1 but this one did and dropped a big steamer (5th by 19); drops back a level; trainer D. Barr is an amazing 31% with sprint-route-sprint angle

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday March 18th at Laurel had just 5 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $3.00 (1st race), $2.80 (3rd), $4.40 (5th), $3.80 (6th) and $4.00 (9th). Top Selections are 91 for 302 (30.13%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (32:9-8-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Classic Wildcat (2nd race: 5-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) stalked the pace, circled the turn three wide, had aim on the leaders in upper stretch and weakened in the drive to finish fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (31:4-6-4; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Swingstage (5th race: 15-1 M/L; 63-1 PT) bumped with FLY E DUBAI leaving the starting gate, raced in the two path between horses on the turn and weakened to finish fifth.

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