The GQ Approach – Laurel March 18

by | Mar 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $94,896
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #2 – Classic Wildcat (5-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 5 / #2 – Swingstage (15-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 4, 5  w/ 2  ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 5, 6  w/ 1, 5, 8  w/ 2  ($4.50)
  • Race 4 – 20 cent Pick-6  1, 5 w/ 2 w/ 2, 4, 6 w/ 9, 11 w/ 1, 3 w/ 4, 10, 11 ($14.40)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 4, 10, 11 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Sunny, highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 Towson (2-1): Lake trainee ran second against similar two back, drops from fourth-place finish versus much better in last
  2. #5 Polarization (1-1): Ouch! Hard to devalue a horse more aggressively than trainer Chad Brown has this one, a $135,000 auction purchase who debuted for $40,000, plummets in second start
  3. #1 Janelle Dreams (10-1): Ran credibly two back versus similar, though finished well behind choice in here

Race 2

  1. #2 – *** BEST BET *** Classic Wildcat (5-2): Closing sort has kept much better company and will be rolling late if a pace develops
  2. #4 – Final Forum (3-1): Speedy sort arrives off a win at CT two weeks back, loves this track (7-4-1-0)
  3. #1 – Goodbyeseeulater (2-1): In good form now, but winless at the trip makes short odds tough to take

Race 3

  1. #3 – Northern Prancer (3-1): Improved effort last out against similar
  2. #6 – Esken Lady (8-1): Long time since this Jose Corrales trainee found the winner’s circle; gets 10-pound but Lyapustina in the irons
  3. #5 – Hashtag Selfie (1-1): Most lightly raced runner in the group and possesses top speed figs – but trainer Gonzalez has been ice cold the last couple of weeks, and what’s fun about even money?

Race 4

  1. #1 – Star Eighty (8-5): Enters with back-to-back wins versus similar, ran second in only prior try at the trip; may be controlling speed
  2. #5 – Lady Terp (8-1): Looking for improved effort from a runner who’s defeated similar previously
  3. #8 – Miss Nosy (9-2): Has been second and third in recent tries versus similar; rider Gomez faced with making a snap decision out of the gate to avoid getting hung out in the parking lot after short run to first turn

Race 5

  1. *** LONGSHOT PLAY *** #2 – Swingstage (15-1)Sophomore drops from two dull tries versus much better, added ground may help cause
  2. #5 – Young American (3-1): First off the claim for leading trainer Gonzalez, who legs up go-to rider Torres
  3. #4 – Campari (5-2): Katy Voss trainee looms a major player in just his fifth career start

Race 6 

  1. #6 – Misschief Maas (5-2): Bit of a bridesmaid, with five straight second- or third-place finishes versus similar, finds relatively soft version of this condition to take another swing
  2. #2 – Candycoated Dame (9-2): Credible effort in last versus similar – including choice in here – and added ground a positive
  3. #4 – No Picnic (6-1): Closer will need a pace to develop but could get that; dead-heated for the show with #2 in here last out and is another who’ll benefit from additional half-furlong on offer here

Race 7 

  1. #11 – Moonspell (8-1): Magee trainee drops to level where he’s competed before; added ground a positive and like to see leading jock Vargas remain aboard
  2. #9 – Lacrostix (5-1): Likely speed of the speed can work out a good trip from outer post, arrives at level where he should win
  3. #3 Bob’s My Uncle (15-1): Will be running late and has shown ability to compete with these, though winless skein at the trip a concern

Race 8 

  1. #3 – Ballivor (9-2): A bit of a windmill tilt last out in the G3 General George, but back where he fits, this one rates a big shot here; dominant winner of two straight allowances prior to last
  2. #1 – Laki (9-5): First start in 10 months for talented Dilodovico trainee, who won the ’17 edition of the Not for Love Stakes
  3. #6 – Wild Dreams (7-2): Two straight wins for this Hugh McMahon trainee, who keeps hot-riding bug boy Weston Hamilton (four wins yesterday) in the irons

Race 9 

  1. #10 – Punch Nephew (8-5): Gary Capuano trainee finds bottom level after credible effort versus better
  2. #4 – The Intern (15-1): First try against winners was a mess, but look for an improved effort here, probably from a forward position
  3. #6 – Crazy Wild Bill (8-1): Returns to distance at which he recorded only career victory

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday March 17th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 11-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $14.00 (1st race), $28.40 (2nd), $24.60 (4th), $6.20 (5th), $10.00 (6th), $6.60 (7th), $7.40 (8th), $5.00 (9th) and $4.80 (11th). Top Selections are 89 for 293 (30.38%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (31:9-8-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Annapolis Class (2nd race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) disputed the pace three wide between rivals, poked a head in front past the three eighths, kept up the battle to upper stretch then faded to finish fourth. 
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (30:4-6-4; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Ten Dollar Hammer (3rd race: 4-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) chased the pace, circled the turn four deep, flattened out to finish fourth. 

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