The GQ Approach – Laurel March 17

by | Mar 17, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing | 1 comment

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $82,248
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #3 – Annapolis Class (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 3 / #4 – Ten Dollar Hammer (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2, 5  w/ 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 4, 7  w/ 1, 6, 7  w/ 2, 3, 5  ($13.50)
  • Race 6 – 20 cent Pick-6  4, 5 w/ 3 w/ 4, 6, 8 w/ 2 w/ 2, 4, 9 w/ 2, 6, 8 ($10.80)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  4  w/ 2, 6, 8 ($6)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EST

Race 1

  1. #5 – Irish Colony (5-1): Claimed out of dull debut when sent off 2-1 second choice, is now out of jail, drops to bottom and adds blinkers
  2. #2 – Wekiva’s Thunder (15-1): No energy when shipped to Pen in hopes of breaking maiden in sixth start when equipped with blinkers; that was over 3 months ago; runner-up in previous start at this level
  3. #1 – Zesty Zar (12-1): Mixed results in last two over a sloppy track; was runner-up prior to those at this level going two turns; only going 7 furlongs here

Race 2

  1. #3 – Annapolis Class (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Lone speed in here comes off a 60-day vacation but has been keeping a steady work pattern; goes for natural hat Trick
  2. #4 – Aiden’s Rag Doll (5-2): Snatched up by leading trainer C. Gonzalez for $25k in only race of career in for the tag but only managed SHOW money; comes back in sprint and protected
  3. #5 – Sweethearted (6-1): Been an Also Ran in this condition the last three, twice on an off track; gets a bit more ground today to close into to get a piece late

Race 3

  1. #4 – Ten Dollar Hammer (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Second start with blinkers usually provides positive results and in this case would require an complete turn-around as this NY shipper has been buried by double-digits against much better in all three starts
  2. #7 – El Guerrero (9-5): Tried eleven times to break maiden in South FL on dirt, turf and slop but only second best four times; arrives at Lrl to try to graduate against at bottom level 
  3. #2 – Whenthedovescry (9-2): AR-bred FTS by Got the Goods out of a Graeme Hall makes career debut for trainer J. Ness (20%) showing decent A.M. works

Race 4

  1. #7 – Trafficplan (2-1): Steep drop after facing ten tough $35k claimers after wide trip from the #11 post but a more realistic spot to get back to the Winners’ Circle as she did in debut 
  2. #1 – Sharon’s Thunder (5-1): Took 10 tries to graduate from maiden ranks then followed that up with a solid second versus similar when breaking from the rail as she’ll do today
  3. #6 – Shecor (9-2): Adds blinkers and may finally get a fast track after five consecutive off track efforts after; two of three races on a fast track resulted in crossing the wire first

Race 5

  1. #3 – Mary Costa (5-1): Made career debut way back in August at Deland was second best yet something went amiss as she was put on the shelf until late Jan. having four works at Prx before entering here; trainer S. Lake “go to” jock J. Arce (26%) will get a leg up
  2. #5 – More Better (5-2): Owns best BRIS# (79) of this bunch based on being bridesmaid by just a half-length in latest, though on a sloppy Lrl surface; third career effort could be the charm
  3. #2 – Piece of Candy (7-2): trainer B. Trimble won with her first ever starter and now tries to win second in fourth starter; daughter of Candy Ride was a nice runner-up in debut when breaking from the rail that day as well

Race 6 is the $75k Conniver Stakes

  1. #5 – My Magician (5-2): Gonzalez trainee has made a nice living of late winning state-bred stakes, having taken two straight, and looks to be the one to beat here
  2. #4 – Anna’s Bandit (10-1): Stakes-placed runner has gradually rounded into form for trainer J. Robb, shows a pair of sharp works prepping for this one
  3. #6 – Up Hill Battle (3-1): Finished behind #5 in here in both the Politely and MD Million Distaff; was a good third in the Politely, enters off a win, and can contend here

Race 7 is the $100k Harrison E. Johnson Stakes

  1. #3 – Zanotti (3-1): Formful sort gave a good accounting of himself last out, chasing loose-on-the-lead Afleet Willy all the way around and sticking with it after seeming to be done at the quarter-pole; wants a stalk-and-pounce type of trip here and may get it; first and second in two tries at the trip
  2. #1 – Something Awesome (9-5): Big late run got the money in the G3 General George, but this Corrales trainee has to do something he hasn’t done in five prior tries: win going around two turns
  3. #8 – Admiral Blue (10-1): Enters off an allowance win at the trip but has finished behind #7 here twice; jockey Lynch and trainer Rodriguez do well together

Race 8 is the $100k Beyond The Wire Stakes

  1. #6 – Smokinpaddylassie (5-2): First time beyond six furlongs for this Paddy O’Prado filly, who hasn’t done a thing wrong to date; three of four to run back from her last won their follow-ups; second time with Lasix 
  2. #8 – Fools Gold (8-1): It’s not every day you get 8-1 on a Chad Brown trainee; this miss graduated last out in her fourth start, second on the main track, and the Beyer figs say she doesn’t belong; but Brown has a 7-3-2-0 record in ungraded Laurel stakes the last five years and wins everywhere he goes
  3. #3 – Limited View (5-2): Freedom Child filly has shown ability to lead or stalk; stretches out to a mile for the first time after a hard-fought win in the Marshua last out; blazing-fast work a week ago says she’s ready – but was it too fast?

Race 9 is the $75k Not For Love Stakes

  1. #2 – Lewisfield (3-1): Lightly raced 4-year-old ran second to the favorite in here two back in stakes bow after getting stuck down inside; returned with dominant win against allowance foes and rates a major shot in here
  2. #5 – Struth (5-2): Astute $20,000 claim by Kieron Magee, winning or placing in five stakes since; loves this 6-furlong trip, and the Dave’s Friend, where he ran second last out, produced three next-out winners; has fired fresh before and no reason to think he won’t be around at the end here 
  3. #8 – It’s the Journey (3-1): Off near-miss efforts in the Fire Plug and the G3 General George, this Mike Trombetta trainee rates a long look here; best efforts put him right there, but you have to wonder if 7f might be just an inch better for him

Race 10 is the $100k Private Terms Stakes

  1.  #4 – Still Having Fun (9-5): Morning Line fav. is a neck away from being four-for-four; narrow win last out was flattered when runner-up Old Time Revival ran second in the G3 Gotham while well clear of the rest; well-drawn in the three-hole and added ground doesn’t figure to be a problem
  2.  #9 – Forest Fire (8-1): Friesan Fire gelding looks to be a different horse since the calendar changed to 2018; ultra-game effort in win last out when turning back a perfect-trip rival, and that race has produced two next out winners; like to see Bisono return for the mount
  3.  #2 – Bal Harbour (2-1): Pletcher shipper owns two stakes wins, including the Sapling around two turns at MTH, but had no answers in the G3 Withers; must rediscover better form to compete; short odds not enticing but pickup of leading rider Vargas nothing to sneeze at 

Race 11

  1.  #2 – Xtracurricular (5-1): Horrible debut when 18-1 going 6 furlongs in slop; trainer D. Capuano gives this one immediate class relief and stretch out to one mile from 6 furlongs
  2.  #8 – Much Maligned (5-1): Adds blinkers in second start after claim for trainer H. McMahon; best career finishes (twice fourth) came at this distance 
  3.  #6 – Imaginar (2-1): Took early lead in latest when blinkers were added and was second best; hard to imagine (no pun intended) he gets the same trip but stranger things have happened

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday March 16th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 8-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $18.80 (1st race), $5.80 (3rd), $6.60 (5th), $3.20 (6th), $2.60 (7th) and $3.60 (8th). Top Selections are 87 for 282 (30.85%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (30:9-8-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Can’tmakethisup (3rd race: 7-2 M/L; 9-2 PT) three wide the first turn, raced in the two-path on the far turn, trailed finishing 6th.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (29:4-6-4; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Expectations (4th race: 4-1 M/L; 3-1 PT) chased the pace while between rivals, came four wide for the drive and kept on with interest to finish third to return $2.60 to SHOW.

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