The GQ Approach – Laurel March 16

by | Mar 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $74,402
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Jockey’s Lone Mount - Depending on how many mounts a jockey typically gets on a given day, if a jock only has one mount, especially towards the end of the day, that horse warrants a second look.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #7 – Can’tmakethisup (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 4 / #4 – Expectations (4-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  5, 7  w/ 2, 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 7  w/ 3, 4, 6  w/ 2, 4, 5  ($13.50)
  • Race 4 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 6  w/ 2, 4  w/ 1, 4, 6  w/ 2  w/ 2, 5, 6 ($18)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  2, 8  w/ 2, 5  ($8)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 1:10pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Love in Excess (8-5): Bridesmaid the last two starts at this level should break through for trainer R. Bailes who seeks first win of ‘18
  2. #5 – Dear Charlotte (5-1): Compromised along the rail v. better yet still ran on willingly late; gets an extra furlong today
  3. #8 – Zosia (6-1): Adds blinkers for twelve career start, tries to improve off two third place finishes since J. Corrales took over conditioning duties; gets H. Karamanos in the irons, his first coming back from injury

Race 2

  1. #2 – Banner Bill (8-5): Should be able to dictate easy early fractions unlike his last couple feeling the heat; has responded to bug W. Hamilton in the irons
  2. #5 – Battle Tap (4-1): Found his way to the Winners’ Circle when dropped to this bottom level in latest outing v. N3L and can wheel right back for same tag
  3. #7 – Ghostly Games (7-2): First start after trainer K. Cartagena $5k claim came against $11k open claimers and the result was expectedly not good; drops back to bottom with better shot

Race 3

  1. #7 – Can’tmakethisup (7-2): *** BEST BET *** May finally have a race go his way after being impeded two back, then rallying for second, then then was best of the rest behind a run-away winner who came back to be third in AlwN1x 
  2. #1 – Tequila Hero (3-1): Ran less than a length behind top pick two back then runner-up in latest effort; stretching back out to two turns could do the trick
  3. #2 – Showmeister (2-1): Looks like lone speed but makes first start since just after Thanksgiving; has a quartet of works with two bullets and trainer J. Talley attracts jock S. Russell to ride

Race 4

  1. #4 – Expectations (4-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Always right there in the last furlong over the past 10 races expect when on an off track and turf; Lrl main oval will be fast so liking his chances in here on the cut back 
  2. #6 – Photogenic (10-1): Third start after layoff but a hard sell for the top spot as this 8-year-old is just 6 for 69 lifetime and 0 for 11 at this distance though cut back from one mile fits
  3. #3 – Turbin (2-1): Continues to earn minor shares versus similar but last few have been tougher in open company while foes been mixing it up in conditional claimers; might run out of real estate to get the win

Race 5

  1. #4 – Malibu Surprise (8-5): One of trainer G. Motion two uncoupled entries who was runner-up to next out winner Blue Union Rags back in January; jock switch to hot riding J. Vargas, Jr. helps her graduate
  2. #2 – Madison Avenue (4-1): Got an education in debut though took a lot of action being sent off 2-1 second choice going 6 furlongs; P. Schoenthal/F. Lynch are 4 for 11 over the past year
  3. #5 – Benevida (12-1): Off slowly as 17-1 longshot in debut made a nice late run in the Lrl slop; comes back at same distance after a pair of 4 furlong works, one a bullet 

Race 6

  1. #4 – American Power (7-2): Home/KY-bred for Gary & Mary West who always seem to have nice horses and this one seems to be no exception, winning at first asking back in November at GPW that saw runner-up and SHOW finishers win in their next outing; ships in from NY for trainer J. Servis only entry 
  2. #1 – Align the Numbers (9-5): Speed of the speed just broke maiden in fourth start, improving BRIS# in each while never being off-the-board; no issues breaking from rail as he has in two previous starts
  3. #6 – Blame It On Honey (5-1): Forgettable first try going two turns just last week as he showed early speed to the second call then eased; turns back to sprint and J. Pimentel stays aboard

Race 7

  1. #2 – Wonderful Light (3-5): NY shipper for trainer M. Nevin has sparkled in four career starts though just one trip to the Winners’ Circle; all races are filled with next out winners with two mid-90 BRIS numbers that no other in here can touch
  2. #8 – Polar Jet (3-1): Only entry on the card for trainer L. Rice who brings back this 4-year-old son of Maclean’s Music who was much the second best in Lrl debut to next out winner, Eastern Bay  
  3. #7 – Sky Chaparral (12-1): Needs to make up 7 lengths on #8 but a fast track this time should help cut into that deficit; seeks first win at this distance though (10:0-3-1)

Race 8

  1. #5 – Mo Focused (3-1): Has the early speed to get 6 furlongs against this group without much pressure early or late; makes first start after claim for trainer O. Figgins (15%) 
  2. #2 – I Stand Alone (8-1): Did just that in last outing standing in gate by himself as it seemed spotting foes a dozen lengths early going 5 ½ furlongs so jock saved him for another day… hopefully today as on a fast track he closed stoutly two back going 6f; extra ground helps here
  3. #6 – Demon Buster (7-2): This non-winner of five races came up short as Post Time choice in latest effort going 6 furlongs; stretches out to 7 today while BRIS#s have been ascending in last two  

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday March 11th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.80 (2nd race), $5.40 (5th), $7.00 (6th) and $6.80 (9th). Top Selections are 85 for 274 (31.02%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (29:9-8-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Adversary (6th race: 3-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) tracked the pace three wide, moved to near terms outside the winner mid-turn, came five-wide battling into the lane, was floated out some through the final seventy yards, kept on gamely and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (28:4-6-3; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Nobody’s Angel (4th race: 8-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) cleared early while off the rail, was joined from her inside by JANEALEE near the three quarter pole, sparred with that one to about the half mile marker then faltered and finished 6th.

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