The GQ Approach – Laurel March 10

by | Mar 10, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $52,584.06
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: $3,748.24
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 2 / #4 – Sam Sparkle (2-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #4 – Gaetano (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 3, 4  ($8)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 2, 5  w/ 5, 6, 7  w/ 5, 7, 9  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  5, 9  w/ 2, 3, 5  w/ 3  w/ 4, 5, 6  w/ 3, 4, 5, 6  ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  4, 5  w/ 3, 5, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #1 – Reciprocity (2-1): Suddenly the rail isn’t such a bad place to be at Lrl based on yesterday’s action; fresh off destroying bottom level maidens where the runner-up came back to graduate on Friday
  2. #2 – Xtra Wisemann (5-1): Tossing latest 34-length loss in the slop going two turns versus better; had a similar outing in the past and then broke maiden at same level in next outing
  3. #4 – Johnny Action (4-1): It’s time for C. Cedeno to win some races (5% in ’18) as she’s done in past years w/ trainer S. Lake; this T. Pletcher $200k yearling purchase cast-off is better than he’s been showing of late

Race 2

  1. #4 – Sam Sparkle (2-1): *** BEST BET *** Always a good sign to see runners reclaimed as trainer J. Ness did but especially when the runner is 10; won first off reclaim and goes for 4th in a row; gets favorable pace scenario
  2. #3 – Hey Willie (8-5): Popular claiming game participant as he’s changed barns in last two races as 84-year-old HOF conditioner KTL is still quite active at his craft; Willie goes for the natural Hat Trick but last two came on an off track, it’ll be fast today
  3. #2 – No Hiding Place (4-1): Seen this movie before… NY-based trainer G. Contessa ships in for hopefully a one-way trip the runner no longer can compete in the Big Apple; problem is it hasn’t been a winning move (11:1-1-6); needs to press #3 early to give Best Bet an ideal stalking trip

Race 3

  1. #2 – Thirsty Bird (3-1): Repole Stable NY-bred couldn’t measure up to NY-breds racing at The Big A so Teflon Todd banished this one from his barn who shows-up in a softer spot for new trainer S. Lake; second start with blinkers
  2. #5 – Be Humble (4-1): Faced a tough bunch of $40kMCL gals in debut when rightfully ignored (26-1); best thing to say is she passed a few faders late but stretch out could help after getting an education; nice 48 3/5 work last weekend
  3. #1 – Rein Supreme (8-1): All Aboard Stables must really like this home-bred to have reclaimed her at a $4k premium two back as she’s yet to be in-the-money in three career outings; keeping the faith that the fourth time is a charm

Race 4

  1. #7 – Our Gabrielle (5-2): Been facing $5k OPEN Claimers of late while today’s foes been battling beaten nickels; should be a quick enough early pace to come back to her in deep stretch
  2. #5 – Party Rock (9-5): failed at CT as Post Time favorite in first start after K. Patterson (30% in ’18) claim; wasn’t quick enough early going 4 ½ furlongs but will be in here as we know J. Pimentel can get them out of the gate quickly
  3. #6 – Fly and Flutter (4-1): Hammered down to 3-5 favorite in latest and won for fun as GQ Best Bet in latest; goes for natural Hat Trick but will need to do it on a fast track today and versus tougher

Race 5

  1. #9 – Bannon (2-1): Geez, the Toddster sure is picky as this one graduated at GP by 5+ lengths in second career start but at the bottom there so this ones’ purse potential won’t pay the barn bills; lands in MD where trainer K. Magee got him to Winners’ Circle v. $25k claimers; like the tenacity    
  2. #5 – Oldfashioned Club (7-5): Goes from a Triple Crown nominee to $25k tag; after a troubled trip in the $100k Whiteley was eased in the $100k Miracle Wood last month; no works since leaves q huge question mark at these odds; getting leading rider helps calm those fears a bit
  3. #7 – Wonder How (10-1): Has been taking baby steps forward as BRIS# continues to climb over his last five races; will need to shake off #3 early to get a gate-to-wire triumph

Race 6

  1. #3 – Royal Hussar (4-1): Amazed that this 1 for 17 gelding was sent off PT favorite in last effort where he once again, for the seventh time was runner-up but to a very nice runner; in here I’m a buyer that he can get win #2 stretching out to two turns
  2. #5 – Special Intention (7-2): A game second in the Lrl slop in local debut behind a really nice runner in Twin Valor; though he’s yet to race on a fast track (3 on turf; 3 on an off track) but bullets in the A.M. on a fast surface have put to rest any doubts
  3. #2 – Brighton Lane (3-1): Jock from past two outings opted for the #5 but has been ultra-consistent being part of Trifecta in last seven starts and runner-up in 4 of 5 at this distance

Race 7

  1. #3 – Delta Outlaw (2-1): Speed, speed, speed but if he loses the lead at any point of call, he’s toast; doesn’t have too many in here who might challenge him early; only entry on the card for trainer D. Jacobson (8:3-1-2 at Lrl)
  2. #1 – Worth His Salt (8-1): Need to find a price somewhere on this card so going with the strangest angle in horse racing, “Eased in last race”; misconception is the horse has an issue whereas many times the jock knows there is no hope so just doesn’t ask the horse for anything; hope that was the case here on a sloppy track going long; cuts back to 6f a distance he last won on a fast track
  3. #6 – Earned It (12-1): Trainer G. Brooks has turned this longtime Also-Ran into a winner off the claim two back; takes an aggressive step up in second start v. N3L

Race 8

  1. #4 – Gaetano (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Comes off a 10-month layoff to race in a soft spot while being protected thanks to having raced for less than $16k tag back when he was a maiden; still a colt so connections still think he can be a good one
  2. #5 – Gato Dolce (3-1): First start after trainer K. Magee claim from race where he ran off the TV screen; finds the perfect spot to win for new barn (23%)
  3. #6 – My Train (7-2): Willing to toss that latest at Pen in the slop when sent off 2-1 second choice; jock S. Hamilton stays aboard and will get a nice stalking trip in hopes of the early speed coming back to him

Race 9

  1. #3 – Belle ‘n Tonic (7-2): Hasty steep drop from $40k after just 3 starts and latest was on an off track and against what has turned out to be a very tough group; E. Trujillo bails to ride #4 but Ye of little faith, veteran S. Hamilton could be a breath of fresh air and get the job done
  2. #6 – Starship Yenta (12-1): A rare Belterra Park (OH) export makes first start for trainer F. Leatherman and second with blinker… an angle that often results in improvement; what’s not to like about that 48 flat work (2nd fastest of 17) at Pim?
  3. #5 – Fortunate Queen (7-5): This royally home-bred Zayat Stables filly can be yours for just $10k… and was wen trainer R. Rodriguez shipped her into Lrl last Dec. and she failed as 1-1 PT favorite though not the cleanest of trips

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday March 9th at Laurel had 5 winners from the 9-race card (1 Top Selection; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.80 (1st race), $17.40 (2nd), $7.60 (3rd), $8.40 (4th) and $8.60 (9th). Top Selections are 84 for 256 (32.81%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (28:9-6-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Disco Express (5th race: 7-2 M/L; 3-1 PT) stumbled at the break, saved ground on the turn and was outrun to finish seventh.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (27:4-6-3; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Polar Outbreak (7th race: 10-1 M/L; 16-1 PT) chased the pace and gave way to finish seventh.

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