The GQ Approach – Laurel March 9

by | Mar 9, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $42,563.90
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Beaten Favorite - A horse who did not win his/her last race but was the post time favorite often is overlooked by bettors in its next race.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #8 – Disco Express (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #2 – Polar Outbreak (10-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 4, 7  w/ 2, 5  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 4, 5  w/ 2, 6, 8  w/ 2, 5, 8  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  5, 8  w/ 5, 9, 10, 13  w/ 2, 7  w/ 5, 7  w/ 1, 6  ($32)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  5, 7  w/ 1, 6, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Patriot Saint (3-1): Just 1 for 31 lifetime but that one came just two races back at today’s distance; cut back from 7 panels in decent first try versus winners could result in win #2
  2. #1 – Legal Precedent (2-1): Breaking from the rail wasn’t the problem in latest SHOW effort rather the additional furlong was as he took heat most of the way; likely in for more of the same today but could outlast others  
  3. #4 – Punch Nephew (4-1): Beaten favorite when dropped to this level but not the best of starts and travelling very wide throughout was asked for nothing in the stretch; trainer G. Capuano switches to W. Hamilton (31% as a team)

Race 2

  1. #2 – Here Comes Michael (3-1): Blew the shoes off his $10k competition in first start since last June to break maiden in slop but those foes haven’t done much since; still, if he runs back to that race he could notch another “W” 
  2. #5 – Clickjab (6-5): This fragile 7-year-old So. CA export has just 15 career starts and now calls C. Gonzalez barn home after showing nothing v. $12500N2L at SA in Jan.; wouldn’t take 6-5 on this one with your money regardless of trainers’ success (20% after brief layoff and first start for barn which is a lower pct. than overall win pct. of 23%)
  3. #7 – A True Gentleman (6-1): Claimed for a nickel out of latest, his second consecutive runner-up effort over a sloppy track with strong gallop out at a mile; chased lone speed winner two back going two turns; will have an honest pace to run at late; not a bad spot while in jail

Race 3

  1. #1 – Patriotic Quest (4-1): Couldn’t seal the deal in last two as he gave up the lead in the stretch after dueling with foes early; only other speed could come from #2 who couldn’t get it as 3-5 fav. in a race timed with a sun dial at Prx 
  2. #5 – My Pal Jerry (5-2): Can boast top BRIS Prime Power rating but has disappointed as favorite on two occasions recently; willing to forgive dead rail trip; switch to K. Gomez could be the missing piece of this puzzle
  3. #4 – Crash Mountain (7-2): Bothered early but showed willingness in the stretch earning a strong Late Pace # when shipped in from NY on steep drop; runner-up in that one came back with another solid effort; trainer W. Potts took over conditioning as S. Russell stays aboard

Race 4

  1. #6 – Pompano (3-1): Would rather skip this race as the likely suspects have question marks and this is one of them; beaten fav at Pen going 6f which is a sixteenth too far based on running lines; cut back should yield a better effort 
  2. #2 – Lynnie B. (4-1): Going in the wrong direction class-wise as this NY-bred is among those who find their way to MD after unable to compete at NYRA bottom levels; last fast track start was a winning one 3 back but no excuse for recent off track failures as he previously handled it
  3. #8 – My Golden Rose (4-1): Blinkers go on but Vargas is off… the latter isn’t a vote of confidence but replacement (E. Gonzalez) is no slouch with barn (30% over the past year); finally gets back on a fast track which the off track could have been excuse in last three outings; gets a stalking trip

Race 5

  1. #8 – Disco Express (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Idle since late May when he won debut sprinting on Pim lawn v. $16kMCL; connections take advantage of Waiver Claiming Rule to protect him; 3-months of steady works… just hope this one isn’t a paid work out leading up to turf season
  2. #5 – Glam Slam (4-1): Aggressively spotted fresh off $16k maiden win as he was flattered when clear runner-up came back to graduate easily here on Monday; owns best last race BRIS# (81) among today’s foes
  3. #2 – Mutaraamy (8-1): NY shipper was full of run on the turn in latest with nowhere to go and finished willingly in first start at Lrl over sloppy track which previously was his Achilles Heel; looks better than ML odds         

Race 6

  1. #5 – Oh So Lovely (6-1): Last two duds came on an off track after a brief layoff; if she’s fit she’s a threat to graduate which is a question considering drop from MSW to $16k to bottom here
  2. #9 – Daray (6-1): Speedy filly hasn’t been able to avoid the wall at the 1/16th pole regardless of sprint distance; gets a 7lb. break as apprentice W. Hamilton takes the reins
  3. #10 – Sticksandbricks (5-1): Rare that a FTS gets such a low ML especially in a full field; this Freedom Child filly out of a Not for Love mare must have gotten rave reviews from Lrl Clocker after a :35 2/5 bullet from the gate

Race 7

  1. #2 – Polar Outbreak (10-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Third start after layoff was distant runner-up here at this distance then couldn’t hang with foes at The Big A as winner was coming off an Also-Ran outing in the Jerome; has a win and runner-up efforts in only two starts on a fast track; interesting that jock J. Torres picks this one over ML favorite (#8)
  2. #7 – Zestful (5-1): Blinkers go on after disappointing 3-year-old debut albeit in the mud in contest that yielded huge BRIS#s for all; first mount for J. Toledo coming back from injury, replacing F. Lynch who’s vacationing in Europe
  3. #5 – Takedown (6-1): Loooch Racing sent this one to trainer L. Gaudet shortly after $20kMCL win at CD in Sept.; made huge late move to get SHOW purse versus similar in local debut in mud when hung 7-wide on the turn

Race 8

  1. #7 – Ghoul’s Night Out (7-5): Lost a heartbreaker in first start versus winners and mud in last outing after a long stretch duel yet well clear of third place finisher; great training job by “Ham” Smith since taking over for A. Dutrow five races back
  2. #5 – No More Excuses (7-2): Never has had any (i.e. excuses) as she always breaks quickly but lacks stamina to finish first going 6 furlongs, today’s distance; back on fast track and at a level where the talent doesn’t measure up to the OC$25kn2x she just faced
  3. #8 – She’s Achance Too (8-1): 7 furlongs was not to her liking as replacement jock just packed it in early; gets regular rider back from injury who should take her back off a contentious early pace and be heard from late

Race 9

  1. #1 – Snow Fighter (7-2): Makes no sense to be in for $16k tag coming off 10-month layoff… usually run away from this situation but it’s intriguing that S. Russell takes mount, first ever for trainer J. Lawrence while he bails on H. McMahon’s (#6) runner as they’ve been winning at a 22% clip
  2. #6 – Forty Acres (10-1): Regardless on jock angle described above, this runner exits dull effort on an off track which he’s despises (4:0-0-0) which followed horrible start and acting badly; have a gut feeling he’ll be competitive today
  3. #9 – One Proud Wildcat (5-2): Got the short end of a wild three-way finish going one mile; not sure he’s game enough to get that extra sixteenth but leading rider in the irons will help

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Monday March 5th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.20 (1st race), $3.20 (2nd), $3.40 (4th), $6.00 (5th), $7.00 (7th), $4.40 (8th) and $2.40 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R1-R2 $2 Double paid $8.00 (cost: $4) and the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $6.80 (cost: $4). Top Selections are 83 for 247 (33.60%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (27:9-6-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Love in Excess (4th race: 9-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) tracked the pace in the two-path, was sent up between rivals to challenge after a half mile, dueled and gained a slim lead near the quarter pole, could not resist the winner’s charge in upper stretch but continued willingly to be well clear for the place and returned $2.80 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (26:4-6-3; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Lost On the Stairs (5th race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) very rank leaving the starting gate, was four deep mid-way on the turn, floated to the five path turning for home and failed to threaten the winner and returned $4.60 to PLACE and $2.80 to SHOW.

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