The GQ Approach – Laurel March 4

by | Mar 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $25,309
  • Super High 5: $1,146
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Shippers - Not all shippers win, because many trainers will enter/ship two runners to make the trip worthwhile; be keen to find if a trainer ships in two, to determine which one is “live."
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #3 – Mythos (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Dad’s City Girl (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4, 7  w/ 1, 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 7  w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 1, 2, 3  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 3  w/ 1, 9  w/ 3, 7  w/ 2, 3, 8  w/ 3, 5, 6  ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 8  w/ 3, 5, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Classy Scralett (9-2): Claimed in third straight start; gets saddled by C. Lynch (21% first off claim) who will give a leg up to J. Vargas, Jr. (22% at meet w/ Lynch); was much the second best in latest and winner wheeled right back to win again
  2. #4 – Awesome Alma (3-1): Finally beat winners after third consecutive class drop, all the way to this bottom level; can boast top BRIS Prime Power rating
  3. #3 – La La Bamba (7-5): Claimed in third straight start; gets saddled by C. Lynch (21% first off claim) who will give a leg up to J. Vargas, Jr. (22% at meet w/ Lynch); was much the second best in latest and winner wheeled right back to win again  

Race 2

  1. #4 – In Arrears (9-5): Taking a leap of faith putting this one on top as he’s been runner-up in last four efforts but versus much better than he’ll face today; trainer B. McFarlane also trying to break 0 for 37 at Lrl dating back to last Sept.
  2. #1 – Silver Cowboy (2-1): KY and southwest racing export improved greatly in three races locally conditioned by H. McMahon then claimed by J. Ness out of latest; takes advantage of optional claiming condition here
  3. #3 – Bobcat (5-1): Lightly raced 5-year-old has back class to handle multi-level leap after beating $5kN3L; might miss an off track (2:2-0-0) but hot riding bug W. Hamilton stays aboard

Race 3

  1. #7 – Donna’s Delight (5-2): Showed absolutely nothing when sent off 6-5 favorite to graduate; don’t lose the faith especially when trainer is K. Magee who gets 29% of his beaten favorite to Winners’ Circle in next outing 
  2. #3 – Debs the Boss (9-5): Lost all chance when squeezed back at the start in latest as it appeared she’d wing it on the front end; drops back to bottom where she was bridesmaid to gal who is ML fav in R7 in open $35k Claimer; may have hated the sloppy going as well
  3. #1 – Cuckoo Forcononuts (6-1): Has picked up a check in all 12 starts but that could be the problem as she seems content to run along with the pack; only glimmer of hope is those she’s faced lately have proved to compete against better

Race 4

  1. #4 – Big Slick (7-2): Was game to earn SHOW purse versus similar in last effort when dropped a few levels; gets a very favorable pace scenario as foes are loaded with early speed so he should be heard from in deep stretch
  2. #6 – Wise Mac (6-1): 8-year-old’s first start for trainer D. Capuano may have only been a disappointment for the barn has he was in against better than he’d been in quite some time; steps back down to where he was runner-up day he was claimed
  3. #7 – Malibu Sunset (5-2): Always takes plenty of money at the betting windows (PT fav. in last 8 starts) but rarely delivers (just 2 wins); catches a break with scratch #1 who’d press him for the early lead along with the #5 

Race 5

  1. #3 – Mythos (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Been unlucky catching an off track in last three races since J. Ness claimed this 7-year-old gelding for $15k; connections like to visit Winners’ Circle so the drop is of no concern especially since he’s been facing classier runners than in here today
  2. #2 – Awesome Bill (7-2): Isn’t so awesome on a fast track (22: 1-2-3) but gets class relief to the point of lowest tag in quite some time; back to two turns where at least he’s 1 for 10
  3. #1 – Top Prospect (5-2): Goes for fourth straight victory as this 10-year-old has gotten a new lease on life by switching to dirt races (9:3-3-0) after just 6 wins in 51 tries on turf and poly-crap  

Race 6

  1. #1 – Align the Numbers (7-5): hard to argue with ML odds as he’s been second best to a couple of nice local runners and third in debut behind a stakes winner; with a clean start the rail won’t matter to him in a gate-to-wire score to earn diploma
  2. #9 – Just Warmin’ Up (8-1): Never did in first start since last Nov. a few weeks ago on a sloppy Lrl surface; looking for an effort like his debut when a fast closing second; good sign that S. Russell stays aboard
  3. #3 – Treetop Flyer (5-1): Chalking up that last clunker when “outrun” in the slop; back on a fast track today should give a much better effort like the one two back when runner-up at this level and distance

Race 7

  1. #7 – Dad’s City Girl (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ IMHO is the quickest of the speed in this contest; on paper appears to only have 5 ½ furlong speed but she’s faced pressure early and often in her last three going 6 which also have been on an off track; attracts leading rider J. Vargas, Jr. for potential gate-to-wire score
  2. #3 – Queen of Schmooze (7-2): Has looked impressive winning both starts while being flattered as a few next out winners have come out of her races; as long as she doesn’t regress she could be 3 for 3 after this one
  3. #9 – Trufflesberg (6-1): Game runner-up effort in latest to the ML favorite in here (#3) but third; been stuck breaking from rail in last three so she should enjoy racing on better part of track

Race 8

  1. #3 – Greasedlightning (5-1): Only three-time winner in this contest as all but one other foe has only beaten non-winners; exits a win where she earned career best 80 BRIS# when 3-5 choice; 2 for 2 at this distance
  2. #8 – Stella B. (7-2): Has improved since adding blinkers three back when romping in maiden win, her last start on a fast track; just missed at this level in slop; first try going two turns
  3. #2 – Blue Union Rags (3-1): Fresh off MSW win at Lrl after cutting short time in So. FL to race on turf; oddly has fared better on natural fast dirt oval (3:1-0-2) which will be the case today

Race 9

  1. #6 – Ms. Picadilly (2-1): In latest had backers yelling, “Dilly Dilly!” as she entered the stretch on top at 19-1, only to surrender the lead late going 6 furlongs; cuts back to 5 ½ furlongs today
  2. #5 – Raging Regina (5-2): Badly beaten favorite due to a horrendous trip and loses jock who elects to ride #4 (5-1); does get good gate rider in J.D. Acosta
  3. #3 – Vinny Gorgeous (6-1): Only filly who is dropping in class; makes third career start after two carbon copy efforts racing mid-pack throughout

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday March 3rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $10.20 (1st race), $4.00 (4th), $5.40 (5th), $15.20 (6th), $4.40 (8th) and $5.40 (9th). Top Selections are 78 for 229 (34.06%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (25:9-4-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Frisky Whiskey (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) prompted the pace outside the eventual winner, applied more pressure after six furlongs, stayed on well through the final three-sixteenths but wasn’t quite good enough and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (24:4-5-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Classic Wildcat (7th race: 5-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) four deep around the turn, floated to the five-path entering the stretch, failed to mount a rally and finished fifth.

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