The GQ Approach – Laurel March 4

by | Mar 4, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $25,309
  • Super High 5: $1,146
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 5 / #3 – Mythos (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Dad’s City Girl (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4, 7  w/ 1, 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 3, 7  w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 1, 2, 3  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 3  w/ 1, 9  w/ 3, 7  w/ 2, 3, 8  w/ 3, 5, 6  ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 8  w/ 3, 5, 6 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Classy Scralett (9-2): Claimed in third straight start; gets saddled by C. Lynch (21% first off claim) who will give a leg up to J. Vargas, Jr. (22% at meet w/ Lynch); was much the second best in latest and winner wheeled right back to win again
  2. #4 – Awesome Alma (3-1): Finally beat winners after third consecutive class drop, all the way to this bottom level; can boast top BRIS Prime Power rating
  3. #3 – La La Bamba (7-5): Claimed in third straight start; gets saddled by C. Lynch (21% first off claim) who will give a leg up to J. Vargas, Jr. (22% at meet w/ Lynch); was much the second best in latest and winner wheeled right back to win again  

Race 2

  1. #4 – In Arrears (9-5): Taking a leap of faith putting this one on top as he’s been runner-up in last four efforts but versus much better than he’ll face today; trainer B. McFarlane also trying to break 0 for 37 at Lrl dating back to last Sept.
  2. #1 – Silver Cowboy (2-1): KY and southwest racing export improved greatly in three races locally conditioned by H. McMahon then claimed by J. Ness out of latest; takes advantage of optional claiming condition here
  3. #3 – Bobcat (5-1): Lightly raced 5-year-old has back class to handle multi-level leap after beating $5kN3L; might miss an off track (2:2-0-0) but hot riding bug W. Hamilton stays aboard

Race 3

  1. #7 – Donna’s Delight (5-2): Showed absolutely nothing when sent off 6-5 favorite to graduate; don’t lose the faith especially when trainer is K. Magee who gets 29% of his beaten favorite to Winners’ Circle in next outing 
  2. #3 – Debs the Boss (9-5): Lost all chance when squeezed back at the start in latest as it appeared she’d wing it on the front end; drops back to bottom where she was bridesmaid to gal who is ML fav in R7 in open $35k Claimer; may have hated the sloppy going as well
  3. #1 – Cuckoo Forcononuts (6-1): Has picked up a check in all 12 starts but that could be the problem as she seems content to run along with the pack; only glimmer of hope is those she’s faced lately have proved to compete against better

Race 4

  1. #4 – Big Slick (7-2): Was game to earn SHOW purse versus similar in last effort when dropped a few levels; gets a very favorable pace scenario as foes are loaded with early speed so he should be heard from in deep stretch
  2. #6 – Wise Mac (6-1): 8-year-old’s first start for trainer D. Capuano may have only been a disappointment for the barn has he was in against better than he’d been in quite some time; steps back down to where he was runner-up day he was claimed
  3. #7 – Malibu Sunset (5-2): Always takes plenty of money at the betting windows (PT fav. in last 8 starts) but rarely delivers (just 2 wins); catches a break with scratch #1 who’d press him for the early lead along with the #5 

Race 5

  1. #3 – Mythos (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Been unlucky catching an off track in last three races since J. Ness claimed this 7-year-old gelding for $15k; connections like to visit Winners’ Circle so the drop is of no concern especially since he’s been facing classier runners than in here today
  2. #2 – Awesome Bill (7-2): Isn’t so awesome on a fast track (22: 1-2-3) but gets class relief to the point of lowest tag in quite some time; back to two turns where at least he’s 1 for 10
  3. #1 – Top Prospect (5-2): Goes for fourth straight victory as this 10-year-old has gotten a new lease on life by switching to dirt races (9:3-3-0) after just 6 wins in 51 tries on turf and poly-crap  

Race 6

  1. #1 – Align the Numbers (7-5): hard to argue with ML odds as he’s been second best to a couple of nice local runners and third in debut behind a stakes winner; with a clean start the rail won’t matter to him in a gate-to-wire score to earn diploma
  2. #9 – Just Warmin’ Up (8-1): Never did in first start since last Nov. a few weeks ago on a sloppy Lrl surface; looking for an effort like his debut when a fast closing second; good sign that S. Russell stays aboard
  3. #3 – Treetop Flyer (5-1): Chalking up that last clunker when “outrun” in the slop; back on a fast track today should give a much better effort like the one two back when runner-up at this level and distance

Race 7

  1. #7 – Dad’s City Girl (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ IMHO is the quickest of the speed in this contest; on paper appears to only have 5 ½ furlong speed but she’s faced pressure early and often in her last three going 6 which also have been on an off track; attracts leading rider J. Vargas, Jr. for potential gate-to-wire score
  2. #3 – Queen of Schmooze (7-2): Has looked impressive winning both starts while being flattered as a few next out winners have come out of her races; as long as she doesn’t regress she could be 3 for 3 after this one
  3. #9 – Trufflesberg (6-1): Game runner-up effort in latest to the ML favorite in here (#3) but third; been stuck breaking from rail in last three so she should enjoy racing on better part of track

Race 8

  1. #3 – Greasedlightning (5-1): Only three-time winner in this contest as all but one other foe has only beaten non-winners; exits a win where she earned career best 80 BRIS# when 3-5 choice; 2 for 2 at this distance
  2. #8 – Stella B. (7-2): Has improved since adding blinkers three back when romping in maiden win, her last start on a fast track; just missed at this level in slop; first try going two turns
  3. #2 – Blue Union Rags (3-1): Fresh off MSW win at Lrl after cutting short time in So. FL to race on turf; oddly has fared better on natural fast dirt oval (3:1-0-2) which will be the case today

Race 9

  1. #6 – Ms. Picadilly (2-1): In latest had backers yelling, “Dilly Dilly!” as she entered the stretch on top at 19-1, only to surrender the lead late going 6 furlongs; cuts back to 5 ½ furlongs today
  2. #5 – Raging Regina (5-2): Badly beaten favorite due to a horrendous trip and loses jock who elects to ride #4 (5-1); does get good gate rider in J.D. Acosta
  3. #3 – Vinny Gorgeous (6-1): Only filly who is dropping in class; makes third career start after two carbon copy efforts racing mid-pack throughout

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday March 3rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $10.20 (1st race), $4.00 (4th), $5.40 (5th), $15.20 (6th), $4.40 (8th) and $5.40 (9th). Top Selections are 78 for 229 (34.06%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (25:9-4-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Frisky Whiskey (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) prompted the pace outside the eventual winner, applied more pressure after six furlongs, stayed on well through the final three-sixteenths but wasn’t quite good enough and returned $3.60 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (24:4-5-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Classic Wildcat (7th race: 5-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) four deep around the turn, floated to the five-path entering the stretch, failed to mount a rally and finished fifth.

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