The GQ Approach – Laurel March 3

by | Mar 3, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $20,931.91
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 8 / #2 – Frisky Whiskey (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #7 – Classic Wildcat (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 2, 7  w/ 3, 4  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  4, 8, 10  w/ 1, 2, 5  w/ 2, 4, 9   ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  2, 9  w/ 2, 4, 6  w/ 3, 7  w/ 1, 2  w/ 3, 5, 9  ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 2  w/ 3, 5, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Partly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: FAST 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Silent Prayer (9-2): Foes lack early speed which C. Carrasco got out of her two back going this distance; yes she’s just 1 for 24 and the one came in her career debut over a sloppy GP oval
  2. #1 – Durango Girl (6-1): Tough assignment from the rail but will allow others to clear for an outside run late as she gets favorite distance (3:1-2-0) in this N2L contest
  3. #2 – Saturday’s Rein (5-1): Got going too late in first outing on a sloppy track, settling for SHOW purse; gets E. Trujillo back in irons who guided this mare to a pair of bridesmaid finishes prior to latest, all at this level

Race 2

  1. #4 – Banner Bill (4-1): Comes off victory, his 14th in 70th career start albeit at the bottom but so are the others in here except #1 and #3; this 9-year-old outlasted a big-time hanger (#2) on that ones preferred surface; should get early lead and make this contest a carbon copy of latest
  2. #3 – Noble Kent (2-1): Part of the Exacta in last four efforts but was the bottom half in last two as PT favorite for same condition; seeks to break Lrl maiden (8:0-2-1)
  3. #1 – Rare Eagle (3-1): Likes Lrl (9:1-2-4) but has yet to conquer this one mile distance (8:0-1-6); last win came when breaking from the rail when getting the best of #3 in here that day

Race 3

  1. #10 – Lucky Stiff (7-2): Appears to have been “stiffed” in last outing when sent off 6-5 choice after winning at same level and surface but this filly’s PPs show a pattern of running good, then bad; cycles back to good
  2. #4 – Local Thriller (10-1): Taking a WAG that this Pomeroy filly hates an off track as her two worst outings came on such a surface; if she runs back to her recent fast track efforts, she figures
  3. #8 – Analyzeurspending (3-1): Lone win came 11 races back, going gate-to-wire when blinkers were added; they come off today in hopes of change bringing the same result even though BRIS#s been ascending of late, earning career (74) best in latest

Race 4

  1. #5 – I Just Wanna Win (5-2): … and she has in 11 of 31 starts! Back to the class level where she won and was runner-up alternating between tough foes in Starter Alw events 
  2. #2 – Porte Cochere (5-2): Didn’t so well when asked to go against open $15k Claimers in first start after K. Magee claim out of an open $5k claimer; drops back to a more manageable level
  3. #1 – Blue Hen Madness (9-5): Steps up another level for third straight outing; game effort in spite of horrible start in latest; both of the top two after gotten the better of her in the past but today she appears to be lone speed 

Race 5

  1. #9 – Homer Haps (3-1): A huge disappointment as 4-5 PT favorite v. similar as jock took him at least 7-wide entire trip and gave no encouragement through the lane; different jock and a more ground saving trip could make a world of difference in the final result 
  2. #2 – Whynotwyatt (12-1): Why not?! Makes first start since late Sept. on turf; only dirt start was forgettable; sent out by third conditioner in 5th career race but this one (O. Figgins) wins at 23% clip with his runners first time under his care
  3. #4 – Salty Slew (5-2): Trainer C. Englehart has won over 4,000 races but has first starter at Lrl… in the past few years if ever; this NY-bred couldn’t hit the board in state-bred MCLs at Sar, Bel or Aqu but earned SHOW purse at FL in open maiden events; was forwardly placed then weakened in latest when trying to stretch out to one mile; trainer wins at 36% clip when dropping multiple class levels 

Race 6

  1. #6 – Nico Bree N Teej (6-5): Ran a huge 99 BRIS# in first try stretching out when dueled with eventual winner the entire trip on a muddy Lrl oval; wheels right back, shouldn’t have to duel in here and only a bounce will deny him this time
  2. #4 – Magician’scalendar (2-1): Was entered on Friday card which was pushed back to Monday, so thinking he’ll go here based on being second best on paper; third start after layoff 
  3. #2 – Tattooed (6-1): This Triple Crown series nominated gelding finished half dozen behind the top pick in latest; pedigree indicates not a fan of an off track so with it fast this time around, he could find himself in contention

Race 7

  1. #7 – Classic Wildcat (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ It’s been a little more than 8 years since this 12-year-old, who is just 7 years younger than his rider, has won an allowance level race; making his 97th start, this Closer should get an honest the pace to soft up the front runners for his late charge with a chance to give HOF trainer King T. Leatherbury his first win of ‘18
  2. #3 – No More Talk (4-1): Among the classiest of runners in here but hasn’t shown it in last two over an off track which he despises; still eligible for N2L might be a good one on the bottom of exotics
  3. #6 – Minor Legend (9-2): Loses services of S. Russell who is loyal to the connections of #4 but replacement has won on 2 of 3 for trainer H. McMahon who just nabbed this one for $7,500 two back; third in first start for trainer in restricted Alwn1x and could move forward as outfit wins at 26% clip second time out

Race 8

  1. #2 – Frisky Whiskey (3-1): *** BEST BET *** In way over her head a few weeks back in G2 Fritchie yet just 8+ behind winner at going 7 furlongs; gets back to two turns where she’s won and been runner-up in two starts while getting E. Trujillo back in the irons
  2. #1 – Keep Your Distance (8-5): Versatile at all distances and surfaces but middle distance seems to be her best, which is not the case here but trainer K. Magee is a gaudy 30% with runners going sprint-sprint then route
  3. #6 – Follow the Petals (6-1): Highly unusual to see a first off C. Gonzalez claim run so bad though in a sprint when one mile or further is what she wants; dangerous coming back at a price; best efforts have come on an off track

Race 9

  1. #9 – Tequila Hero (3-1): No match in latest as winner ran his eyeballs out; was best finisher among a few others in that one who show up in this one; won at Lrl two years back to steal a bottom level N4L going 7 furlongs
  2. #3 – Battle Tap (7-2): Only runner to be dropping a level and it’s been a steep fall from competing in OC$50n2x at Ind last Summer; royally bred by Winchell, hits the bottom in 26th career start
  3. #5 – Rumblin Kyle (6-1): Dull effort in first outing of the year could have been due to hatred for an off track (8:0-3-0); only multiple winner at this distance in here should be more forwardly placed

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday February 25th at Laurel had 9 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $8.60 (1st race), $7.00 (2nd), $3.20 (3rd), $11.80 (4th), $5.00 (5th), $4.00 (6th), $8.00 (7th), $8.80 (8th) and $2.80 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $18.60 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 76 for 220 (34.55%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (24:9-3-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Fly and Flutter (3rd race: 3-1 M/L; 3-5 PT) bumped on both sides leaving the starting gate, saved ground on the turn, angled to the three-path approaching the stretch, secured command in upper stretch, was under brisk urging, drew off to win by four-and-one-quarter-lengths and returned $3.20 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (23:4-5-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Debs the Boss (6th race: 9-2 M/L; 7-2 PT) lacked early speed, chased between rivals, steadied nearing the five sixteenths, weakened and finished tenth.

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