The GQ Approach – Laurel February 25

by | Feb 25, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $17,612.33
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 3 / #6 – Fly and Flutter (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #9 – Debs the Boss (9-2)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  3, 4, 7  w/ 5  ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 6  w/ 5  w/ ALL  ($8)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 2  w/ 1, 3, 9  w/ 1  w/ 1, 3, 5  w/ 3, 7  ($18)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 5  w/ 3, 7, 8 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers, highs in the mid-60s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 – The Intern (9-2): The Lightbulb Theory is in effect here; graduated from the maiden ranks in 15th career start in gate-to-wire fashion over a sloppy Lrl surface; can go back-to-back v. these
  2. #3 – Summer Run (5-2): Has yet to get the better of the second choice (#1 – Crazy Wild Bill) but a 6-wide trip breaking from far outside (10 hole) in latest didn’t help matters
  3. #7 – Majestic Heist (8-1): Imported from WO after going 1 for 15 on turf/synthetic v. $10k-$20kN2L; twice beaten favorite v. lesser when OTB in both at Prx and Pen; gets Vargas in irons

Race 2

  1. #5 – Hermans Gold (6-5): In the Olympic spirit going with/for the “Gold”; has more career starts then his five rivals combined (11 v. 10); if he can’t get to the wire first today, he may never    
  2. #6 – Bestia (9-2): NY-bred FTS by Stay Thirsty out of a Milwaukee Brew mare offered at a discount ($8k v. $10k) typically is not a positive sign but trainer K. Cartagena is 1 for 2 w/ firsters in for a tag and 26% with all maiden claimers
  3. #4 – Big Bad Ben (3-1): Gelded MD-bred FTS by Rock Slide out of a Zanferrier mare shows a nice work pattern of six drills w/ one bullet going 3 furlongs from the gate (Jan. 20) and most recent one decent from gate as well BUT like #6 offered for $8k

Race 3

  1. #6 – Fly and Flutter (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Blinkers off in latest proved to be a winning move for new combo of G. Capuano/W. Hamilton who have gotten to Winners’ Circle with 4 of 13 runners; will need pace help
  2. #7 – Have Hope (5-2): Ambitiously placed in first two starts after $7,500 claim, drops to the bottom as trainer C. Mancilla will give Oscar a leg up who seeks to break an 0 for 89 win drought dating back to March 2015
  3. #1 – Senora de Lujan (9-2): OMG! This 8-year-old mare makes first start in nearly 3 years (Apr. 18, ’15); she certainly fits condition well and has been working since mid-Nov.; last win came over a sloppy Lrl oval at this distance… why not again?!

Race 4

  1. #5 – Sister Patricia (8-5): Third start after 7-month layoff has Placed or Showed in all eight starts; bridesmaid in latest that saw winner come back to be second in first level allowance contest
  2. #2 – Bash (3-1): Took action (5-1) in debut when in against top pick; with limited stock wily trainer K. Voss over past few years has won with 2 of 7 runner making second career start    
  3. #4 – Oh My (5-1): That’s what the connections will be saying if this filly wins as her trainer B. Trimble’s first ever starter; the four-legged gal makes second career start, the first coming 13-months ago for G. Motion, sent off 2-1 favorite but was 5th in the mud w/o Lasix, gets it today     

Race 5

  1. #2 – Lady Terp (9-2): Couldn’t get to the #8 in here in their last start when seeking a natural Hat Trick; could turn the tables today with a different pace scenario
  2. #1 – Elnath (7-2): Pen-based shipper is only entry on the card for trainer T. Kreiser (14: 6-1-0 at Lrl since Sept.); this mare makes Lrl debut as she’s been consistently in Exacta v. similar at Pen
  3. #8 – Star Eighty (3-1): Impressive win in same race condition v. four foes when stretched out to one mile; cuts back to 7 panels and will have pressure early

Race 6

  1. #9 – Debs the Boss (9-2): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Runner-up when dropped from $25k to $10kMCL but winner came back to easily dispose of $25k Claimers where the Show horse came back yesterday to win easy; was beaten favorite two back when on dead rail and steadied
  2. #1 – Lady by Choice (2-1): This filly who started career last summer at Sar being runner-up in MSW has since switched barns twice (from C. Brown to T. Bush to P. Schoenthal), Showed in last two at Aqu for $40k and $50k tag yet surfaces at Lrl for just $16k  
  3. #3 – Parched Ghost (8-1): Adds Lasix for third career start following double-digit losses in both outings where she didn’t get clean trips while being heavily backed in MSW then $25kMCL

Race 7

  1. #1/1A – Sneaky Betty/Charity Stripe (3-1): Appears to be a strong entry as “Betty” makes second start for conditioner C. Gonzalez but only off track start was ugly as PT favorite while trainer A. Farrior will give a leg up to O. Bocachica for his only mount on the card trying to guide “Stripe” to second off track victory in as many such starts
  2. #2 – Beautiful Maiden (9-5): Making meteoric class rise of late as she had been running against nickel claimers in the Fall; just missed winning this AlwN1x in latest going two turns along the rail
  3. #6 – Karma (12-1): Perfectly named mare for the situation as trainer B. Trimble will give a leg up to her fiance’ S. Russell in hopes of meeting up in the Winners’ Circle for her first win as a trainer (unless she wins R4 with #4); this mare comes off 12-length maiden score when blinkers went back on after 6 races w/o them

Race 8

  1. #3 – Candycoated Dame (9-5): Didn’t take too kindly to the Prx oval when sent off 2-1 PT favorite, finishing seventh; returns to home track where she had hit the board in her last six main track efforts v. similar company
  2. #1 – Misschief Maas (2-1): Unfortunately drew the rail as she did in latest when second best for second consecutive start; never OTB at Lrl (5:1-3-1) but pace will likely have her coming up short
  3. #5 – Socially Driven (7-2): Takes next logical step up and capable of taking this field gate-to-wire but it’s interesting that jock R. Montanez lands on trainer W. Potts’ other runner in here (#6) whose 12-1, Hmmm

Race 9

  1. #7 – Jumping Michelle (8-5): Flashed new-found speed coming off 5-month layoff; seen this move before from leading trainer C. Gonzalez stretching sprinters out to middle distance
  2. #3 – Affezionamente (7-2): This MD-bred $150k yearling purchase at Tim has not paid dividends in first two starts losing by double-digits; second start with blinkers often returns positive results; did have a rough start in latest when salvaging fourth and ignored by bettors (41-1)
  3. #8 – Towson (9-2): It’s a mystery as to why this filly purchased for $42k was offered for $10k in debut, was touted by every insider at the track, sent off 1-1 yet not claimed when ran on late for fourth sprinting; trainer S. Lake did take the bait for $16k when again sent off 1-1 favorite but beaten by next winner; steps up two class levels

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday February 24th at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (4 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $11.80 (3rd race), $3.60 (4th), $7.40 (5th), $4.40 (7th), $4.20 (8th) and $5.40 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $30.55 (cost: $12) and the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $12.00 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 74 for 211 (35.07%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (23:8-3-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Campari (6th race: 7-2 M/L; 5-2 PT) settled off the pace and well removed from the fence, advanced between rivals leaving the five-sixteenths, swung six wide for the drive and made a steady run to gain through the final furlong, coming up one-and-one-quarter-lengths short of victory and returned $4.40 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (22:4-5-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Bestkindoftrouble (8th race: 5-1 M/L; 5-2 PT) prompted the pace three wide outside CORREJON, moved to apply more pressure mid turn, drifted in briefly while entering the lane and brushed with that rival, spurted clear under a drive nearing the sixteenth pole, gave way grudgingly and narrowly saved the place and returned $3.40 to PLACE and $2.40 to SHOW.

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