The GQ Approach – Laurel February 24

by | Feb 24, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $13,970.23
  • Super High 5: $1,481.01
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
House Silks - This is a “play against” angle, especially in a maiden race. If the connections did not make their own silks available to the track for the jockey to wear, then what are the odds any of them will show in hopes of getting in a Winner's Circle photo with the jockey not donning the barn's silks?!
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #3 – Campari (7-2)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 8 / #4 – Bestkindoftrouble (5-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  1, 4, 5  w/ 1, 3  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  3, 4, 5  w/ 1, 7  w/ 4, 5, 6, 8  ($12)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  4, 7  w/ 3, 7  w/ 3, 4, 6, 9  w/ 4, 6  w/ 3, 5  ($32)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  4, 6  w/ 3, 5, 7 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with showers, highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY 

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #5 – Bobbyalexsgoldmark (3-1): Found the right level to dispose of N2L in latest while being 5-wide at the quarter; BRIS#s have been climbing since C. Gonzalez claim four races back
  2. #4 – T Sizzle (6-1): 7-year-old drops to lowest level of 30-race career seeking elusive third victory; catching an off track helps (3:1-1-0) as does trainer M. Eppler’s 20% route-to-sprint stat
  3. #1 – Junction (5-1): Nice effort when stepped up in first off K. Cox claim behind next out winner and one who is in today’s 7th v. Alwn1x; adds blinkers

Race 2

  1. #1/1A – Showalter/O Dionysus (3-1): “Buck” will ensure a quick early pace for stablemate “O” who was last seen competing in Preakness Trail races quite successfully; nice work tab since mid-Dec indicates he’s ready to pick up where he left off in first race v. elders
  2. #3 – Spirit Grabber (6-1): 2 for 2 at this 7f distance; comes off two turn victory over two foes who came back yesterday to run 1-2
  3. #4 – Bridget’s Big Luvy (5-1): Beaten favorite at this level in latest as he bounced off career best BRIS# (100) when runner-up in Jennings

Race 3

  1. #4 – Sir Sidney (4-1): Couldn’t carry speed one mile so this 9-year-old gelding cuts back a panel in hopes of outlasting others for Prx-based trainer D. Velazquez seeking first Lrl win in 11th try
  2. #3 – Turbin (9-2): Bad stumble at start and lost jock in race that was setup perfectly for his Closing kick; not quite the same this time around but gets E. Trujillo back aboard to make amends
  3. #5 – Goodbyeseeulater (7-5): Ran carbon copy third-place efforts when sent off Post Time favorite in last two, the latest when dropped to this open nickel; did beat #3 in here prior to those going 7f all on a fast track (8:1-1-3 on an off track)

Race 4

  1. #1 – Finding Perfection (1-1): Deserves to be short priced Morning Line favorite after SHOW effort in debut earned 79 BRIS#; runner-up from that one came back to easily break maiden in next start; rail assignment is only concern
  2. #7 – More Better (6-1): Third in debut back in mid-Dec when 5-1 as winner came behind to win again and runner-up was convincing winner two races after that one; the work tab is brilliant but trainer J. Egan needs to break an 0 for 21 with runners coming off 46-90 day layoff
  3. #4 – Velocita Brillante (6-1): Adds blinkers after dull effort when sent off Post Time favorite following sharp runner-up effort as trainer T. Keefe win pct. more than doubles (28%) with beaten favorites

Race 5

  1. #8 – Bad Nana (4-1): Third time at Lrl could be the charm especially on drop back to level trainer H. McMahon claimed her; will need a smart ride from S. Russell (21% w/ McMahon) as he’ll have company early 
  2. #5 – Expect Indy (4-1): Seen this move by trainer K. Magee before in first race off claim, gets out of “jail”, enters right back at same condition but at a discount to get 4 lbs. off… like this mare needs it w/ J. Vargas, Jr. in the irons; nice off track record (3:1-1-1)
  3. #4 – Hashtag Selfie (3-1): Third start after brief layoff comes off gate-to-wire score as favorite v. N3L in slop here while hung 6-wide into first turn; won’t be that easy this time

Race 6

  1. #3 – Campari (7-2): *** BEST BET *** Took early money when a distant third in just third career start, first v. winners which was a tough, restricted Alwn1x going two turns; cuts backs to 7 panels which fits pedigree better; S. Russell opts to ride this one v. ML fav. for trainer who he’s been winning at a 21% clip, Hmmm  
  2. #7 – McPherson (4-1): There’s no “need the lead” types in this contest so this fragile gelding who gets a break at least 6-weeks between races could be keen enough to inherit early lead; likes the Lrl main oval (3:1-1-1)  
  3. #1 – Young American (8-5): Best last BRIS# (90) makes him the logical choice but hard to take on a 1 for 21 runner at any level let alone one with the tag in an OC$25k; does all his running late but likely will come up short with a slow early pace and less real estate to cover

Race 7

  1. #3 – Twin Valor (3-1): A good barometer of his chances will be the outcome of Race 6 as beat the #3 in that one by 8+ lengths in restricted Alwn1x; this open condition one isn’t among the tougher this capper has seen
  2. #6 – Jump Jive an Wail (5-1): Consistent runner always picks up a check comes off earning SHOW purse in this condition following victory v. restricted much like top pick; handles an off track just fine (6:2-1-1)
  3. #4 – King Koa (5-2): A rare bird in this sport as this gelding in eight career starts has never run w/ Lasix; does add blinkers after a dull outing at Aqu; 2 for 2 at this one mile distance

Race 8

  1. #4 – Bestkindoftrouble (5-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Third start after layoff has backed up in first two going 7 furlongs then 6; if F. Boyce can get him away from the gate quickly as he showed last Fall, then he’s a threat to go gate-to-wire on further cut back to 5½ furlongs
  2. #6 – Wild Dreams (8-5): Ran off the screen in latest against lesser while earning career best 94 BRIS#; did get the better of the #2 in here two back over a “good” Lrl oval at this level
  3. #2 – Correjon (2-1): Was fortunate to get up late to complete the Trifecta two back when behind ML favorite as he was “unprepared at the start”; couldn’t outlast one rival going 7f in latest; never OTB in 5 Lrl outings nor 4 at this distance

Race 9

  1. #3 – Brute Force (9-2): Is just one of two in here who could take this field of N2L from gate-to-wire; in spite of failing to get to Winners’ Circle in eight previous tries at this distance, lone win from 18 starts came on an off track
  2. #5 – All Spun Up (2-1): Trainer J. Corrales claim has not worked not while being an Also Ran against better than the $5kN2L he nearly beat when claimed; time to pay for some bills by getting a bigger check and risk losing him to bottom feeders
  3. #7 – Bungalow (3-1): Is the other speed horse in here as J. Torres takes over who tends to get more out of runners early than others; boasts best BRIS Prime Power number; lone win came on turf going two turns

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Friday February 23rd at Laurel had 6 winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $19.80 (1st race), $6.40 (2nd), $5.80 (3rd), $8.80 (5th), $4.40 (7th) and $4.40 (8th). Top Selections are 70 for 202 (34.65%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (22:8-2-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Eastern Bay (8th race: 2-1 M/L; 6-5 PT) prompted the pace to the inside of THE GREAT PROVIDER, drew on near even terms under some coaxing mid turn, secured command entering the lane, spurted clear under a turned down right stick, was kept alert with a few more cracks then was under steady hand urging the final seventy yards to win by two-and-three-quarter-lengths and returned $4.60 to WIN, $3.20 to PLACE and $2.20 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (21:4-4-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Only One Wish (3rd race: 8-1 M/L; 6-1 PT) along the inner rail most of the trip, was outrun and finished fifth.

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