The GQ Approach – Laurel February 19

by | Feb 19, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $8,939
  • Super High 5: $1,934.14
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Always tell the truth. Then you don't have to remember anything.Mark Twain Roughin' it
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #7 – Lonely Weekend (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #3 – Can’tmakethisup (12-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  2, 4, 6  w/ 5, 7  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  2, 4, 7  w/ 1, 3, 7  w/ 1, 5, 6  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 5  w/ 5, 7  w/ 2, 3, 4, 8  w/ 3, 6  w/ 5, 6, 7, 8  ($64)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  3, 6  w/ 5, 6, 7 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy, highs in the upper-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD to FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #6 – Mila Jane (2-1): Two for two since transferring to J. Corrales barn albeit on an off track but pedigree excelled on fast as well
  2. #4 – Chancee (8-5): Second half of a strong uncoupled J. Corrales entry goes for natural Hat Trick too; her bloodlines suggest she might be best at middle distance v. routes
  3. #2 – Grecian Dancer (5-1): Drops in first start after H. McMahon claim which has been a winning move 21% of the time; should appreciate added distance

Race 2

  1. #7 – Pachi Cruze (5-2): Runner-up to one who goes later in the card and is ML favorite so one would think this one is deserving to be given a look; cut back to distance where he’s earned 2 of his 4 career victories
  2. #5 – The Iron Bank (10-1): Gets class relief after earning SHOW purse against a salty quintet of runner; Vargas stays aboard and gets early speed to chase down in deep stretch
  3. #6 – Lon’s True Passion (2-1): Vulnerable favorite IMHO making first start since $5k claim two months ago; lone entry for Prx-based trainer S. Krebs

Race 3

  1. #2 – Ghareeb (8-5): Where’s the early speed? Right here! Though not a “need the lead” type, this 8 year old gray gelding will likely get it by default; BRIS#s have improved in last two starts at Lrl
  2. #7 – Wrightwood (5-2): Consistent runner of late earning a check while being bounced around four different barns since arriving from CA last summer
  3. #4 – Mid Ocean (6-1): First start for trainer J. Ramirez after $5k claim who’s looking to get the monkey off his back at Lrl (0 for 19) as this spot is perfect for this runner as he’s eligible for the N2Y condition due to claiming price being under $5k when he won on Oct. 19th

Race 4

  1. #3 – Saint Ignatius (10-1): There’s plenty of early speed in this contest to set it up for this Closer; drops down a level after getting SHOW purse when 17-1; never been off-the-board at this distance (3:0-2-1)
  2. #7 – War and Thunder (7-2): 10-year-old gelding been earning his keep racing at CT going 4½ while based at Lrl; makes first local start in over three years and probably wishes race was 5f and not 5½
  3. #1 – King’s House (3-1): Breaking from the #1 hole has been detrimental to runners chances of last at Lrl; is quick enough from the gate to potentially clear rivals and take to the 3-4 path

Race 5

  1. #5 – Nicholas and Me (3-1): Added blinkers while stretched out to two turns for first time in seven race career and was much the second best to a next out winner; cut back to sprint should be to his liking
  2. #1 – Henry the King (3-1): Away since May ’17, been training on and off and is entered for the tag in this optional claimer for $25k; yellow flag or does trainer H. McMahon have a good poker face
  3. #6 – Moon Over a Beauty (2-1): Only entry on the card for Pen-based trainer T. Kreiser who brings along jock M. Inrio (29% as a team) to ride runner who hasn’t seen the track in the afternoon in over 7-months; Racing Office get a bit crowd prior to this race

Race 6

  1. #7 – Lonely Weekend (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Effort in last three outings have been good enough to beat any of the rivals he’ll face today; second start with blinkers is an angle that often brings positive results (Thanks Chinny!)
  2. #5 – Maynooth (2-1): Excuse in latest failure to break through the maiden ranks as he’s burned Chalk players money as Post Time favorite in last three starts but speed figures are going in the wrong direction  
  3. #4 – Two Swords (5-2): After a pair of third-place finishes going 6 furlongs, stretches out to one mile in hopes he has the necessary stamina to make his third start a charm

Race 7

  1. #3 – Can’tmakethisup (12-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Might have been compromised enough in latest effort to have been denied fourth career win when beaten favorite; has hit the board in all four outings since A. Aguirre has taken over conditioning duties; could upset w/ clean stalking trip could upset 
  2. #8 – Now We Are Free (6-1): Jock J. Davis comes to Lrl just to ride this Pen-based runner who likes the Lrl dirt oval (4:2-1-0) and the one mile distance (10:4-2-0); will need pace help
  3. #4 – Rumblin Kyle (20-1): Off form in latter part of ’17 so trainer G. Capuano gave him a month off; was facing open claimers during most of ’17 campaign and usually gives an honest effort in first start after layoff

Race 8

  1. #6 – Blame It On Honey (5-2): Candidate to go off 2-5 favorite due to scratch of “Teflon Todd” 7-5 ML favorite (#4 – Gleason ); this one has been away since Thanksgiving but the work tab is brilliant! A BEST BET if you’re into getting 80 cents back on your $2 WIN ticket, otherwise single him in your horizontal wagers
  2. #2 – Big Bella Brown (3-1): Never off-the-board in five career efforts and this should make it six; third start after layoff
  3. #3 – Taco Supream (10-1): Impressive winner in $25k claimer in which trainer D. Dilodovico nabbed for Big Bertha Stables; willing to take $15k instant profit by putting $40k tag on him yet could go gate-to-wire against these four foes

Race 9

  1. #5 – Pretty Venezuela (7-2): Been picking up minor share checks at Prx over her last eight starts at same higher level ($7,500N2L) than this one; 7lb. bug W. Hamilton who won 4 on yesterday’s card get the mount
  2. #6 – Tiz Majesty (7-2): No matter how bad the others may look on paper can you trust a 1 for 28 lifer “on top”? Positive thinking people will say, “Somebody has to win”; she was a bridesmaid for seventh time two back when sent off 1-1 favorite   
  3. #7 – Janealee (5-1): Only got Lasix in last two starts which one can toss latest v. better as she kissed the ground exiting the Starting Gate and isn’t a two-turn runner when faded to fourth two back to a next out winner in only start at this bottom N2L level; might be reaching but she’s faced better and is just 1 of 2 in here to have won at this distance (Disclaimer: I own a piece of her) 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday February 18th at Laurel had x winners from the 9-race card (3 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $14.60 (1st race), $6.40 (2nd), $11.00 (3rd), $3.20 (4th), $7.40 (5th), $6.20 (8th) and $7.60 (9th). Of the suggested multi-race wagers hit the R3-R5 50 cent Pick-3 paid $20.65 (cost: $13.50) and the R8-R9 $2 Double paid $22.40 (cost: $12). Top Selections are 65 for 184 (35.33%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (20:6-2-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Hercatwillfoolu (7th race: 3-1 M/L; 7-2 PT) saved ground around the turn, faltered and was eased the final sixteenth of a mile to finish sixth/last.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (19:4-3-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Miminegash (6th race: 6-1 M/L; 5-1 PT) stalked to the inside of the post time favorite, moved in tandem with that one mid turn, failed to kick on under a drive past the eighth pole and faded and finished fifth.

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