The GQ Approach – Laurel February 18

by | Feb 18, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $7,285.21
  • Super High 5: $613.87
  • Late Pick 5: none
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
3rd race after layoff - Horses often peak in their third race after a layoff of 60 days or more.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 7 / #6 – Hercatwillfoolu (3-1)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 6 / #4 – Miminegash (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4, 6, 7  w/ 5, 6  ($12)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1, 6, 7  w/ 4, 6, 7  w/ 1, 2, 6  ($13.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 2  w/ 4, 7  w/ 6  w/ 1, 3  w/ 2, 6, 9 ($12)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  1, 3  w/ 2, 6, 9 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Sunny, highs in the mid-40s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: GOOD to FAST

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #7 – Love and Care (7-2): Speed from the outside to get the jump on the #1 who will have to work twice as hard along a rail where nobody wants to be
  2. #4 – Gotham News (7-5): Nice late run when dropped to the bottom when transferred from S. Asmussen barn; getting back to two turns helps 
  3. #6 – Will (6-1): Pen-based shipper makes initial start at Lrl and gets the team of H. McMahon & S. Russell who’ve been winning at a 23% clip at the meet

Race 2

  1. #6 – Take Warning (3-1): Newlyweds Gina & Jerry Robb have done well joining forces at the track since their nuptial; this colt had a less than ideal trip in latest
  2. #5 – Old Dude (8-5): Quick turn-around after being very keen just 9 days ago winning for $15k in first race after trainer C. Gonzalez $11k claim; takes another step up
  3. #3 – Jovis (9-5): Only race of 5 career outings he was off-the-board came going beyond 6 furlongs; appears to be learning his craft quite nicely as he just missed first time v. winners

Race 3

  1. #7 – Mikes Muscle Man (9-5): Change of venue from sunny FL tracks helped as he was runner-up at this level and a few of those who he beat are back in here; trainer/jock combo are red hot
  2. #1 – Here Comes Michael (8-1): Sidelined since mid-June after racing on turf with little success v. better; not a rousing endorsement as he is offered for half the price of his last race; decent works
  3. #6 – Wildly Clever (7-2): Thought this one would bounce back in latest when moved up a level after failing as favorite at this level following a strong two turn outing

Race 4

  1. #6 – Chapel of Chimes (1-1): Seems to have regained some of her old form when dropped to the bottom of the claiming barrel, winning last two very easily; a 10-time winner from 30 starts
  2. #7 – Ask Me I Might (3-1): Has the early speed to go with the Morning Line favorite but that might ‘cook” her and ruin any chance to get even a minor share
  3. #4 – Z Nation (10-1): Distant runner-up in Lrl debut to top pick when 8-1 and coming off the narrowest of victories at CT

Race 5

  1. #1 – Big City Blues (3-1): Intriguing runner has been away since late May ’17 when claimed for $25k; hard work by connections to get him back to the races comes with promise as they take advantage of Claiming Waiver option
  2. #2 – Zap Cat (9-5): Drops to lowest claiming level since his days running at WO even after a game effort v. MSW in latest when he lost photo for the PLACE position
  3. #6 – Malibu At Midnight (2-1): Tough to take 2-1 on a 10-time runner whose yet to be part of an Exacta (10:0-0-3) but does get class relief after finishing two-lengths behind Zap Cat in latest

Race 6

  1. #4 – Miminegash (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ 3-year-old daughter of Paynter caught a muddy track in debut while being “best of the rest” behind a nice runner who has competed well v. winners; sent off 3-1 in debut indicates the barn has confidence in his ability
  2. #7 – Scary Not Scared (7-5): One of the few “disappointments” that hail from Sagamore Farm; head scratcher as to why they took this one to FL but is back home where she’s run her best two races; adds blinkers
  3. #2 – Youmakemeblush (7-2): Looks like stretching out to one mile and/or the magical “second start w/ blinkers” woke-up this Violence filly as she was bridesmaid in a troubled trip at Prx

Race 7

  1. #6 – Hercatwillfoolu (3-1): *** BEST BET *** Latest is a complete toss as she took one of the worst stumbles exiting the starting gate that this capper has witnessed in quite some time; veteran rider S. Russell did nothing other than check his pants after she recovered; with a clean break today she gets her second win
  2. #3 – Proportionality (5-2): Prudent $25k claim out winning effort earning career best BRIS#; attracts hot rider who teams up with trainer P. Schoenthal for first time ever
  3. #4 – Whyyouask (6-1): Was a Vet Scratch from a $25k Claimer here last week yet comes back in this OC$50kn1x not in for the tag; has run behind a few good ones and broke maiden 3 back beating one who won $100k Wide Country stakes here yesterday

Race 8

  1. #3 – Ghoul’s Night Out (5-2): Will try to stretch speed an additional furlong after graduating in latest v. MSW; faces fillies who have beaten winners but she earned the best “last race” BRIS#
  2. #1 – Conjecture (3-1): Tough customer for top pick but will need to overcome rail assignment; has been part of Exacta in last six efforts
  3. #6 – Sazerac Girl (5-1): This lovable 13-time bridesmaid has only made it to the Winners’ Circle twice in 34 starts but is just short of a $200k lifetime earner; better at 6 than 7 furlongs IMHO

Race 9

  1. #6 – Bobcat (7-2): Away since mid-June ’17 when runner-up on drop to $5k claiming but interesting to note trainer D. Capuano takes advantage of Waiver Rule, thus connections think highly of this gelding not wanting to lose him as he has back class to be worth more than $5k
  2. #2 – Awesome Standard (3-1): Ran behind two next out winners at this level; won second career race v. $10k and J.D. Acosta will be riding him hard early
  3. #9 – Totally Unexpected (4-1): Has taken to natural dirt though win in latest came on sloppy track which plays much like synthetic at WO, trainer C. Lunch wins again at 29% clip with claimers

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Saturday February 17th at Laurel had 7 winners from the 11-race card (5 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $4.60 (1st race), $4.60 (3rd), $5.20 (4th), $2.80 (5th), $4.00 (6th), $5.80 (8th) and $3.20 (10th). Top Selections are 62 for 175 (35.43%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (19:6-2-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Ms Locust Point (10th race: 4-1 M/L; 3-5 PT) went to the early lead without any pressure, set reasonable fractions through the first half, maintained a three-length advantage into the stretch and responded kept to task to draw away by four-lengths and returned $3.20 to WIN, $2.40 to PLACE and $2.10 to SHOW.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (18:4-3-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Frigid Sister (8th race: 10-1 M/L; 9-2 PT) away slow, advanced along the rail prematurely, held position behind leaders until entering the stretch then could not muster a rally and finished fourth.

Check out...