The GQ Approach – Laurel February 16

by | Feb 16, 2018 | Breaking, Handicapping, Maryland, MD Racing |

Great Soul takes the 2016 Wide Country. Photo by Laurie Asseo.

The GQ Approach features full-card selections from Laurel Park for the live winter racing meet, Post Time 12:30pm EST including a daily Best Bet, Longshot Play, and multi-race wagers — including the 20 cent Rainbow Pick-6, 50 cent Early and Late Pick-5s, as well as Pick-4s and rolling Doubles, Pick-3s and the Super High-5.

Today's Carryovers
  • Rainbow Pick 6: $2,472
  • Super High 5: none
  • Late Pick 5: $6,682
GQ's Handicapping Tip of the Day
Change of Equipment or Medication - Trainers often tinker with a horse's equipment - putting on or removing blinkers, adding Lasix, gelding a horse - to find what works best. Sometimes these changes can yield big improvements.
Best Bet of the Day
Race 6 / #1 – Tricky Lion (9-5)
Longshot Play of the Day
Race 7 / #9 – Zestful (6-1)
Multi-race Wagers
  • Race 1 – $2 Double  4  w/ 1, 4, 7  ($6)
  • Race 3 – 50 cent Pick-3  1  w/ 1, 5, 8  w/ 1, 3, 4, 7, 9 ($7.50)
  • Race 5 – 50 cent Pick-5  1, 7, 9  w/ 1  w/ 5, 6, 9, 10  w/ 7, 8  w/ 6, 7, 10 ($36)
  • Race 8 – $2 Double  7, 8  w/ 6, 7, 10 ($12)

Analysis

  • Weather: Mostly Cloudy with rain, highs in the low-50s
  • Scheduled turf races: NONE
  • Projected track conditions… Main: SLOPPY

1st race Post Time 12:30pm EST

Race 1

  1. #4 – Run in the Shadow (3-1): Big class drop and offered at additional discount ($8k v. $10k) but this is a trainer M. Trombetta move that wins at a 25% clip; running lines look worse on paper than what shows on video replays
  2. #2 – Somethingwithlilly (3-1): Speed figures have been getting better but still seeks first in-the-money finish in career start #5 
  3. #1 – Congreely (5-2): Blinkers go on but still no Lasix for second career start after taking action (5-1) in debut showing early speed than gave way

Race 2

  1. #1 – Stormologist (2-1): Bridesmaid in latest to nice, stakes placed MD-bred filly Vente to Go; broke maiden from the rail going this distance over a muddy track… Deja’ vu
  2. #7 – Stella B. (12-1): Fourth at Prx in first try versus winners but she must have traveled 6 ½ furlongs during the 6 panel event, doing more bobbing and weaving than Ali did in Manila
  3. #4 – Child’s Play (9-5): A rarity here when leading trainer C. Gonzalez doesn’t win in first or second start after a claim; intends to find traffic trouble so she could turn tables on top pick

Race 3

  1. #1 – Donna’s Delight (7-5): Is to this group what Mikaela Shiffrin was to Olympic Giant Slalom field… golden
  2. #7 – Mo Money Monica (30-1): Has finished ahead of three rivals after three races but stretches out from 5½f to one mile and second start with blinkers
  3. #2 – Island Queen (7-2): Ugly effort when dropped from $40k to $16k while sent off as 3-5 favorite; drop to $10k in first start after claim raises yellow flag but this endorsement tells you something about the rest of these fillies

Race 4

  1. #8 – Rare Candy (5-2): Beaten favorite hails from barn of trainer winning at 25% during the meet but has been a lot more of late; field lacks early speed so this gelding should get lead w/o pressure
  2. #1 – One Proud Wildcat (9-5): Typical trainer K. Magee move in second race after claim (27%) to drop runner back to level in which s/he was claimed
  3. #5 – Lacrostix (5-1): Lightly raced four-year-old goes for the natural Hat Trick; was flattered when runner-up from maiden win and SHOW horse from latest came back to win in next outing     

Race 5

  1. #1 – My Golden Rose (3-1): Drops to bottom after a pair of fourth-place finishes in which she seemed happy to follow the pack; early tote action will give an indication of her chances
  2. #7 – Gimme Kimmy (6-1): “Cowboy” Hamilton did an amazing job rallying this one after the saddle slipped early in the contest; should get an honest pace to run at late
  3. #9 – She Be Fierce (6-1): Interesting that she does not run with Lasix after a very dull outing following a runner-up effort v. the same, yet was very cold on the board (8-1) for a C. Gonzalez runner who is 27% with multiple class droppers

Race 6

  1. #1 – Tricky Lion (9-5): *** BEST BET *** A seasoned vet at this level while most rivals in here are stepping up in class; earned SHOW purse in last two as the winner and runner-up in both contests won in their next start
  2. #5 – I’m Mr. Blue (6-1): Ran just 6 days ago and disappointed big-time at 2-1 second choice going two turns in the slop; has struggled since returning from 10-month layoff but these are weak N1x  
  3. #8 – No More Talk (9-2): Eligible for N2L but has been earning minor shares at this level and finished less than a length behind top pick in latest but extra furlong will test stamina  

Race 7

  1. #9 – Zestful (6-1): $$$ LONGSHOT $$$ Based on Morning Line is considered the lesser of the G. Motion uncoupled entry among a group who were nominated to Miracle Wood Stakes on Saturday but opted for an easier spot; been working well for 3-year-old debut
  2. #5 – Clever Mind (9-5): Is the other Motion runner who broke maiden in debut in MD Million Nursery and was “rushed along” to run in it; he’s Triple Crown nominated but could be distance challenged; ability to get this one mile will help towards answering that question
  3. #6 – Threes Over Deuces (10-1): Knew trainer G. Capuano liked this one when she ran in a stakes in debut last Sept.; has that grind it out running style which bodes well in here with a lot of early speed 

Race 8

  1. #8 – Bioterp (7-2): Needed a short break after 9 races in 6 months and prefers racing on grass; draw a line through Politely stakes and concentrate on game runner-up effort two back versus similar
  2. #7 – She Rolls (3-1): … always right to the front but faces 3 others who are quick from the gate as well; had no excuse as beaten favorite in latest going 6 furlongs; maybe she’ll last going 5 ½ as she did once before
  3. #2 – Jessica Krupnick (7-2): Appeared to have passed this OC$25k/n2x level but the Prx stewards had other ideas and DQ’d Ms. Rabbit; can get the winners’ purse IF she runs in a straight line

Race 9

  1. #10 – Raging Regina (9-2): No races nor published works since runner-up finish here on Dec. 15th; small operation places runners where they can be successful (14:1-4-3)
  2. #7 – Ms. Picadilly (15-1): One of those maidens who always seem to be making up ground late, needing just a bit more real estate, yet when they get it, still cannot win; let’s hope she can here
  3. #6 – Cyndara (5-1): One of four in here dropping in class after fourth-place finish v. $16kMCL; if she runs to any of her 2017 races speed figures then today should be Graduation Day

 

YESTERDAY’S NEWS  

  • On Sunday February 11th at Laurel had just 4 winners from the 9-race card (2 Top Selections; payoff in BOLD) having $2 WIN pay-offs of $5.60 (4th race), $6.00 (5th), $6.20 (6th) and $8.40 (9th). Top Selections are 55 for 155 (35.48%). In 2017, Top Selections went 340 for 1,197 (28.40%).
  • BEST BET of the Day (17:4-2-3; in 2017 119: 39-25-19) Quality Asset (8th race: 3-1 M/L; 9-5 PT) sluggish early while between runners, was pushed along around the turn, came three wide for the drive and had some late action to finished fourth.
  • LONGSHOT PLAY of the Day (16:4-3-2; in 2017 107: 18-13-15) Wonder How (2nd race: 8-1 M/L; 8-1 PT) vied outside a rival before going clear into the backstretch, set the pace well off the inside, was joined from his inside leaving the far turn, battled four wide outside the winner into the lane then faded through the final furlong to return $3.00 to SHOW.

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